It was not as if things were going brilliantly for Boris Johnson as he tried to spend some time last week at Checkers, a bubble of tranquility in the countryside, away from the escalating cost of living crisis and political woes that interrupted his year.
As early as Tuesday morning, an MP was expelled from the party after he was found guilty of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy. Another sparked outrage over a statement in support of his former colleague, just weeks before the upcoming local elections.
Then a phone rang on a sparsely populated Downing Street. A call from the capital’s police to inform the prime minister that he would be among those fined for attending a Downing Street rally on his birthday sparked shocked officials.
This is a measure of the threat posed by the fact that this weekend, after the launch of a highly controversial asylum policy and a concerted campaign in support of the prime minister, his team will be relieved that the number of lawmakers calling for his resignation is limited to a dozen. and something – and only one minister has left.
Among the scandals surrounding Johnson’s leadership was the expulsion of Imran Ahmad Khan from the Conservative Party last week after he was found guilty of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy. Photo: Dominik Lipinski / PA
However, as Tory MPs prepared to regroup in Westminster this week, many have concluded that any predictions that the threat to Johnson’s position has faded are greatly exaggerated.
“He is still deep in the forest,” said a former minister. “We have local elections and that is what deters most colleagues. But once the locals are done and if there are more fines, then it really becomes a much more difficult terrain. I don’t think it was signed, sealed and delivered – and they know it in № 10. They were very worried. “
While the time of Met’s phone call during the political pause prompted a scattered number 10 team to formulate an answer, it ultimately helped the prime minister.
In the hours that followed, both Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak were fined, and the Tory MPs’ WhatsApp group was silent, with no one wanting to be the first to pass sentence at Westminster’s most permeable forum. All afternoon, the deafening silence was broken only by Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis, who welcomed the third series of Derry Girls from Channel 4, and Southern Swinden MP Robert Buckland, who tweeted his experience with Wordle.
Finally, Nadine Doris, the ultra-loyal secretary of culture, led the belated accusation of supporting the prime minister’s office.
However, his real savior came in the incredible form of Sir Roger Gale, Johnson’s arch-critic. As a sign that there would be no immediate threat to Johnson’s presidency, he concluded that removing him now would be “gross self-indulgence” as the crisis in Ukraine continues.
The prime minister’s birthday party in June 2020 violated Covid’s rules on indoor social gatherings and resulted in a fine. Photo: Andrew Parsons / AP
Another fortune for Johnson was that, to everyone’s surprise, Sunak was also fined for attending the birthday event. It could be so easily different. Understandably, after arriving early for a meeting, Sunak lingered at the party door for a while before entering the room.
Unfortunately, a photo of the chancellor is to blame for his fine, his allies say. This meant that those who considered Sunak to be Johnson’s natural successor could suddenly not condemn the prime minister, while Sunak could not leave without overthrowing the government. Even then, the Allies said he had spent a miserable few hours contemplating his future, despite the impact, but withdrew from leaving.
However, despite these fortunes, several lawmakers said on Saturday night that the security of Johnson’s position was now overestimated. Everyone the Observer speaks to believes that further fines are inevitable and will be more difficult to justify.
In particular, Johnson’s presence at a “bring your own alcohol” event in the Downing Street Garden, as well as an alleged party at Johnson’s apartment on Downing Street – which is denied by number 10 – have the greatest potential for damage. “I think birthday things are a little beer compared to what’s coming,” said one veteran MP. “[Potentially] six more fines? How about an equal party?
Our view of the threshold was that people are angry with us, but there is no appetite for the Northern Tory Labor MP
When Tory MPs began reviewing their emails late last week, various responses reflected Gale’s statement that “not now” doesn’t mean “never” much. Many agree that the key moment remains the publication of Sue Gray’s full report on Downing Street parties, which will come after all Partygate fines have been issued.
Correspondence from Tory MPs to voters, seen by the Observer, includes Kevin Hollinrake, an MP from Thirsk and Malton, who condemned the breach and added: “There is a requirement within [ministerial] code that any significant violation will require the resignation and this, of course, will also apply to the Prime Minister.
Sir Christopher Chop, a far-right MP, also said ominously: “I will wait for these additional reports before deciding what course of action to take.” Sir Gary Streetter, a veteran MP from Southwest Devon, was more outspoken. Responding to an email he said was “one of many”, he said: “I sent a letter of no confidence a few weeks ago, which was widespread. My position remains unchanged. “
Interior Minister Priti Patel and Rwandan Foreign Minister Vincent Biruta at a press conference in Kigali. The UK government has sparked outrage after announcing a plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda for processing. Photo: Jean Bizimana / Reuters
There are also dangerous moments in the coming week. In addition to the immediate threat of new fines, lawmakers are said to have asked the president to refer the prime minister to the Privileges Committee as to whether he had misled the party house.
Other lawmakers are said to be on the brink. Alex Chalk, the attorney general who is believed to be firmly monitoring the resignation, went as far as he could without resigning in a statement to a local newspaper, saying he would not defend the prime minister’s actions. He is one of the five QCs on the front bench. The sixth Minister of Justice, Lord Wolfson, has resigned.
Local elections also became key to testing public support for Johnson, a leader whom many lawmakers backed only after they were convinced of his equality. Did the anger at Partygate penetrate?
“I think a lot [Partygate] is at a price, “said a minor MP. “But this is not to minimize the damage he has done. I don’t think any of us should be joking. This made him a mortal, unlike Super Boris. I don’t think he has that kind of brilliance – it’s all burned out. “
During last week’s election campaign, Tory candidates did their best to shift the focus from national politics. Walking around the Milton Keynes area of Tattenhaw, Shazna Muzamil talks about parking, potholes and rubbish.
A candidate for the Tory Council, she has focused her campaign on the things she believes are most important to local people. But it is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain conversations. National problems, including partisanship and the cost of living, continue to emerge. “What is happening at the national level … is definitely making it harder,” said Muzamil, 44. “The prime minister is doing well with Ukraine, but people never talk to you about it because they have nothing to complain about.”
Tattenhoe, a relatively affluent pocket of Milton Keynes, characterized by green spaces and attractive new housing complexes, has two conservative advisers and one Labor MP. Next month, Labor is ready to be seized – an opportunity Muzamil hopes to seize.
Last year, the Tories won six seats in Milton Keynes to become the largest party on the council, although no party has overall control. It is uncertain whether they will win new voters or cling to existing ones. In Milton Keynes last week, some Tory supporters admitted that their allegiance was hesitant, while other voters remained on the fence.
Frederick, 77, a former engineer in the market town of Stony Stratford, voted for the Conservative candidate in the last local election, inspired by the national leadership. “Everything seems to be going well – things looked pretty good,” he said. Partygate made him wonder if it was worth voting at all.
“You feel like you can’t trust them – what they say or do,” he said. “Boris Johnson lied – there is no doubt about it. I feel sorry for the people whose friends and relatives are dying in hospital and could not come in and say goodbye. And they have bloody parties. “
He will decide who to vote for on the spot “after a drink”, he said. “But it will not be conservative,” he added. He has previously voted for Labor candidates, but is “not so sure” for the party’s leadership. “Perhaps it would be a good idea to target the Liberal Democrats.”
Another local, 39-year-old Vicki Elizabeth, a teacher from Bletchley, is considering voting for the Liberal Democrats. She wants councilors to focus on environmental issues and the regeneration of main streets, as well as to improve safety for residents, and is “open”.
But she said: “I can’t imagine being conservative, even if they advocated something incredible at the local level. With the changes in education and the dirt of the Tories … there is too much water under the bridge right now.
However, despite some public outrage – with a Tory describing …
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