Voters in the Philippines will vote in a presidential election that pitted a favorite, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son and namesake of the late dictator, against a human rights lawyer who promised a transparent government.
Marcos Jr., known as Bongbong, whose authoritarian father robbed billions of dollars from the state and led numerous human rights abuses, maintained a strong lead in opinion polls ahead of Monday’s vote. If elected president, it will mark the extraordinary rehabilitation of one of the country’s most controversial political families.
Marcos was followed in the polls by Leni Robredo, the current vice president and human rights lawyer who advocates for marginalized groups. As vice president, a position chosen separately from the president, she has often clashed with President Rodrigo Duterte and condemned his so-called “drug war”, which killed up to 30,000 people by some estimates and sparked an investigation by the International Criminal Court.
Marcos, whose supporters have used social media to rebrand the family and whitewash history, has a significant lead in opinion polls. He is the preferred candidate by 56% of voters, according to a recent Pulse Asia poll. Robredo, behind him, is preferred by 23%.
However, analysts say such polls may have overestimated Marcos’ lead, pointing to the high turnout at Robredo’s rallies.
“The reality may be that this is a very close race,” said Ronald Mendoza, dean of the Ateneo government school in Manila. “It simply came to our notice then [the result] will be settled sooner because it allows for a more stable transition. “
Philippine police and the military said on Sunday they were on high alert before the vote. “We are ready for any unforeseen situations,” the head of the armed forces, Lieutenant General Andres Sentino, told a media briefing. “We are committed … to ensuring that we have safe, accurate, free and fair elections tomorrow,” he said.
Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and his family participated in his last election rally before the May 7, 2022 election in Paranake, Metro Manila. Photo: Ezra Acayan / Getty Images
On Saturday, the last day of the campaign, Robredo’s supporters filled the streets of Makati, in the area of the national capital, with a sea of bright pink, the trademark of the campaign. “We have a right to a future with dignity and we have a duty to fight for it. We have learned that nothing is impossible, “Robredo told crowds of supporters.
Robredo faces two of the country’s most powerful political families: Marcos and Duterte. President Sarah Duterte’s daughter is running for vice president with Marcos Jr., although Duterte has not backed a presidential candidate.
Marcos’ camp avoids televised debates and avoids questions from the media that it considers unfriendly. Instead, the family and its supporters have used social media to reach voters, especially those who do not remember martial law, a time when thousands were killed, tortured and arrested. A network of accounts presents the Marcos period as a time when the country was prosperous and orderly, flooding newscasts with false claims about the period. Marcos Jr. denied having any coordinated online campaign.
Robredo’s camp, by contrast, is run by volunteer activists who go from house to house trying to win undecided voters. This is a strategy that is not usually implemented on such a large scale in the presidential elections in the Philippines, and its impact is unclear, analysts say.
Vice President and presidential candidate Leni Robredo demonstrated a gesture as he arrived for his last campaign rally in Makati City, Metro Manila, on May 7. Photo: Basilio Sepe / Zuma Press Wire / Rex / Shutterstock
“It’s kind of a puzzle for us, political scientists and election observers, whether this new thing in this campaign – that volunteering, house-to-house campaigns will matter for the final results of the election,” said Prof. Maria Ella L. Atienza, who teaches political science at the University of the Philippines.
Social media may give the impression that people have strong preferences, but this does not necessarily reflect society, she added. “Looking back on previous elections, there was a huge percentage of people in the exit polls who said they made a decision only weeks before the election or even during election day itself,” she said.
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People are influenced not by loyalty to a political party, but by other personal factors, including the extent to which they feel connected to the candidates.
Marcos, whose slogan is “together we will rise again”, is campaigning with a message of unity and hope. At his last rally on Saturday, he told his supporters: “We will come to the day when, when we join forces, when we face the world again and shout to our friends and wave our flag, we will be proud to say that we are Filipinos.
Atienza said the level of engagement among the candidates’ supporters was comparable to 1986, when Marcos Sr. called early elections – an attempt to prove his mandate amid growing pressure at home and abroad. His claim to victory, amid reports of fraud and deception, led to the People’s Power Revolution, which overthrew him.
That put the Philippines on the “imperfect path to democracy,” Atienza said. Small profits since then could be threatened by the prospect of a new Marcos presidency, she added.
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