Analysis: Tory MPs may not be quite ready to overthrow Boris Johnson, but number 10 knows they need something to stop the rot
The most accurate reading of the political runes this morning came from a former Downing Street resident, Gavin (now Lord Barwell).
Yes, as a former head of Theresa May’s cabinet, he is not a fan of the current prime minister.
But he is also right to say that yesterday’s vote was important because number 10 found it difficult to say that he could no longer rely on Tory MPs to support Boris Johnson.
“We must stop drinking Kool’s help that this will disappear… we cannot use Ukraine as a fig leaf,” former Minister Tobias Eloud said today.
Lord Barwell is also right when he says that now is probably not the time to remove Boris Johnson.
The Tory rebels do not want to see a repeat of the failed “pig pie” conspiracy in January, so time is of the essence.
Breaking up local elections next month will increase the risk for the prime minister, given that his main attraction to back voters is his ability to win votes.
Additional fines and embarrassing details of Sue Gray’s full report will increase anger.
Labor’s main job right now is to manipulate the Westminster political process in order to put Tory MPs in increasingly difficult positions and, as such, add to the hostility they feel towards their leader.
The party did this incredibly effectively yesterday.
While for number 10, the strategy is to keep the show on the road through mass insistence on the honesty of the Prime Minister and attempts to change the subject as soon as possible.
We saw this from Johnson’s longtime ally Connor Burns this morning.
However, this is counting on something to come to stop the decay among Tory MPs.
The war in Ukraine played this role, but not forever.
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