Russian President Vladimir Putin may move to a formal declaration of war on Ukraine on May 9, which will allow full mobilization of Russian reserve forces as they try to conquer eastern and southern Ukraine, according to US and Western officials.
May 9, known as Russia’s Victory Day, marks the defeat of the Russians over the Nazis in 1945. Western officials have long believed that Putin will use the symbolic meaning and propaganda value of that day to declare either a military achievement in Ukraine , a major escalation of hostilities – or both.
Officials have begun refining one scenario, with Putin officially declaring war on Ukraine on May 9. To date, the Russian authorities have insisted that the conflict is only a “special military operation” with the central goal of “denazification”.
“I think he will try to withdraw from his ‘special operation,'” British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told LBC Radio last week. “He was turning the field, laying the groundwork for him to say, ‘Look, this is already a war against the Nazis, and what I need is more people. I need more Russian cannon fodder. “
Wallace added that he would not be surprised, and I have no information, that he would probably announce on this May Day that “we are now at war with the world’s Nazis and we must mobilize the Russian people en masse.”
Additional context: The official declaration of war on May 9 could stimulate Russian citizens and raise public opinion about the invasion. In addition, under Russian law, this will allow Putin to mobilize reserve forces and call up conscripts that officials say Russia desperately needs amid growing labor shortages. Western and Ukrainian officials have estimated that at least 10,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the war since Russia invaded just over two months ago.
Other options for May 9 include annexing the breakaway territories of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, making a major push for Odessa to the south, or declaring full control of the southern port city of Mariupol.
The United States has “very credible” intelligence reports that Russia will try to annex Luhansk and Donetsk “sometime in mid-May,” US Ambassador to the OSCE Michael Carpenter said Monday. There are also indications that Russia may plan to declare and annex a “people’s republic” in the southeastern city of Kherson.
U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price said Monday that there is “a good reason to believe that the Russians will do everything possible to use” May 9 for propaganda purposes.
“We have seen the Russians really redouble their propaganda efforts, probably almost certainly, as a means of diverting attention from their tactical and strategic failures on the battlefield in Ukraine,” Price told a State Department briefing.
Price added that he had “seen speculation that Russia could officially declare war” on May 9, and said it would be a great irony if Moscow used the occasion of Victory Day to declare war, which in itself it would allow them to grow recruits in a way they are unable to do now, in a way that would be tantamount to revealing to the world that their military efforts are failing, that they are interfering in their military campaign and military goals. “
“I am convinced that we will hear more from Moscow by May 9,” Price added. “I am convinced that you will hear more from the United States, from our partners, including our NATO partners, also on the eve of May 9.
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