Russian forces have made some progress in Moscow’s renewed attack on eastern Ukraine, according to US and NATO officials, as their troops try to resolve the countless problems plaguing the first weeks of the invasion.
The United States sees “some evidence” of improving Russia’s ability to combine air and ground operations, as well as its capacity to supply ground forces, officials said.
Progress is “slow and uneven,” a senior U.S. defense official said, allowing Russian forces to advance only “a few kilometers” each day.
But the United States estimates that Russia is trying to learn from the mistakes it made in the beginning, when columns of tanks and armor ran out of food and fuel, leaving them easy prey for Ukraine’s strike and flight tactics.
Russia has placed command and control elements near its border with eastern Ukraine, according to a senior NATO official, as a sign that they are trying to correct the communication and coordination failures seen in the attack on Kyiv.
Before the invasion began on February 24, Russia assembled 125 to 130 battalion tactical groups, known as the BTG, around Ukraine and in particular near Kyiv, but when fighting began, Russian military leaders showed little ability to make them fight as one.
There are currently 92 BTGSs in the country, with another 20 just across the Russian border, according to a senior defense official.
“The attacks are a little better coordinated, but with small formations. Helicopter-assisted company-sized units, “said a European defense official. “The lowest level of mutual support. In NATO, that would be the main thing.”
However, Western officials familiar with the latest intelligence say that even if Russia has learned key lessons from its systemic failures in the first phase of the conflict, it is unclear whether Moscow will be able to implement the necessary changes to dominate. the region of Donbass.
Its military has suffered heavy casualties, both in manpower and equipment, and officials believe other equipment relocated from various parts of Ukraine may not yet be fully repaired. Many of the combat units have gathered soldiers who have never fought or trained together.
“I don’t know how many lessons they can actually do. It’s not just something, “said a senior NATO official. “You can’t just move tanks and personnel and say, ‘Now go back to battle!’
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Alex Marquard and Natasha Bertrand contributed to the report for this publication.
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