In the market of the city of Wolverhampton, business is lively, but it is a difficult time for traders and their customers.
Richard Dollar, a fishmonger who has run his popular stall for 20 years, says he never knew it was so difficult as he talks about trying to stay afloat amid rising costs and prices.
“Some of [price of] the fish is doubling, ”said Richard, who travels weekly to Billingsgate Market in London to buy his supplies.
Image: Sky political editor Beth Rigby talks to voters in Wolverhampton ahead of local elections
“I used to pay, say, £ 10 a box, now I pay almost £ 20 a box,” he tells me behind his counter, full of fresh fish on ice.
“Lavtak, I made five for £ 10, then four for £ 10, then three for £ 10. Soon I will not be able to make these prices, because every week when I go, the prices go up.
“Almost everything I sell is more expensive.”
And it’s not just fish. It cost Richard almost £ 140 to fill his van to make the trip to London, which used to cost him £ 80. But he hates to pass on rising costs to customers because he worries they will stop buying his product.
His margins are pressed, so is he. “I can feel it,” he tells me. “I have two employees and I have to pay them, whether I’m making money or not. It’s really bad.”
“Everyone is fighting”
Derek Lewis has a similar story in one of the fruit and vegetable stores. His clients are struggling with the cost of living crisis and he is trying to help them as much as he can.
“Every customer who came to the store [is worried about money]”He tells me.” Nine out of ten want a discount. Because they are fighting. Everyone is fighting. I realize they are fighting. That’s why I’m trying to keep prices as low as possible. “
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The experience of these traders and their customers is felt up and down in the country. And when you add it to the political and leadership crisis caused by revelations about a number of offensive events on Downing Street – 50 fines issued to staff, including the prime minister and his chancellor and counting – it’s a difficult background for Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in these local Elections.
Explanation: Local elections 2022 – when are they, how do they work and why are they important?
Thursday’s election across the UK will be Mr Johnson’s first test of the vote since the party scandal erupted and the cost of living crisis began to bite.
Of course, people vote on both local and national issues in local elections and turnout is much lower than in general elections, but it is also true that many of Mr Johnson’s deputies see these elections as sour test of his own position among voters.
Applicants
As a senior Conservative MP and opponent of Johnson told me the other day when I asked them if they thought there might be a vote of confidence after the May 5 election: “I think that could happen. A number of colleagues published their letters after the date [of no confidence] by 10 pm on May 5. “
In other words, some MPs are waiting for the end of election day to try to overthrow their prime minister, or as another senior Conservative MP told me: “Mr Johnson’s pre-race for success is under way”, eagerly … be contenders – the names that appear are many, including Liz Truss, Nadym Zahawi, Sajid Javid, Ben Wallace, Tom Tugendhat, Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt – are starting to campaign for MPs to test possible support. (Rishi Sunak is now in some danger after revelations about his wife’s non-home status and his own notice of fixed sanction).
Key battlefields
So where are the tests for the big Tory ballot boxes? Some of the key battlefields will be in London, where the Conservatives hold seven councils, Westminster and Wandsworth, identified as key tests.
All three parliamentary constituencies in the Wandsworth district are Labor and the Tories hold this council with only three seats.
In Westminster, district-wide voting could not be closer last time, with a difference of less than two percentage points between Labor and Conservatives, while changes in borders reduced the number of seats on the council, with the Tories appearing to be the main losers.
Barnett, where the Conservatives either control or is the largest party since 1964, should also be monitored.
Far from London, looking at the success of the Tory general elections in 2019, it is worth looking at how the two parties are doing in some of these areas of the Red Wall. One-third of the council is for re-election in Barnsley, where the share of Labor votes fell sharply between 2018-2019.
Labor is defending 19 seats here and cannot afford to lose.
Image: Labor leader Sir Keira Starmer
Also watch out for Wolverhampton, where the Conservatives took two constituencies from Labor in 2019, and Hartlepool, where the Conservatives won the by-elections in 2021 – can Labor defend itself this time?
Any change to Labor will confirm the current lead of leader Keira Starmer and put Boris Johnson under more pressure; It is noteworthy that the Conservative Party’s sources are already informing about the breakup that the party will receive, setting expectations low in the hope that it is not as bad as all this at night.
One clear reason may not be that these are elections that test Labor with a high water mark, making it difficult for the opposition to make a profit.
More than 4,350 of the seats announced for seizure on Thursday were last contested in 2018, when Jeremy Corbyn’s Labor Party showed its best performance in the 2012 local elections, so winning may not be so easy. To achieve.
Psephologists (election analysts) Michael Thrasher and Colin Rawlings say winning 200 or more seats would be Labor’s best performance in a decade and a sign of Labor’s path to becoming the largest party in Westminster, even if it doesn’t. reach an absolute majority.
Put this election in the context of a general election and a 7 percent swing will make Labor the biggest party – and the key places for that are Pendul and Northampton North. But keep in mind, too, that Labor is defending 2,971 seats – 43 percent of all vacancies – so the potential for big profits is limited.
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Operation Clear Day
But Labor tells me that the party closely monitors 35 marginal or target places – places like Stevenage, Bury, Glasgow and Southampton – because these are places that Labor has to win in order to win a general election.
Operation Clear Day, as it is called, is an attempt by Starmer’s team to look beyond the net gains (or losses) of councilors to see how the party is monitoring the general election.
But really, this set of elections is a test for struggling Boris Johnson and whether he can still be liked by voters amid his recent difficulties.
So what does “win or lose” look like on the day? Mr Thrasher and Mr Rawlings said running out of the election without a net loss or gain would be a good result, but a loss of 350 seats or more was the likely result of a pliers movement between Labor and the Liberal Democrats. south of the Tories and parts of outer London) – will be a major concern, especially given that less than 1,900 of the 6,800 seats in the UK are currently held by the Tories (Labor defends 2,971).
Image: Can Boris Johnson lead the Tories to a general election?
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12:28 Liberal Democrats vote to “send message to conservatives”
The big question for the Conservative Party until Friday and beyond is whether Mr Johnson can lead them to a majority in the next general election, or whether the prime minister has become a leading anchor for the Tori brand. And some of that will depend not only on this particular set of elections, but also on the content of Sue Gray’s report, the parliamentary inquiry into his behavior and whether police impose more fines on him for violating Downing Street blockade rules.
But more important than all this is what these voters told me in Wolverhampton – the cost of living crisis, galloping inflation and fears of subsistence.
This is a prime minister who has promised to level the country and improve people’s lives up and down the earth. If he goes to the next election with people who feel less well, he will fail.
Image: Bill Clinton’s famous campaign phrase “this is the economy, you fool” was taken down by George W. Bush
President Clinton’s strategist James Carville coined the phrase “the economy is stupid” to overthrow George W. Bush in the 1992 election, when America was in the midst of an economic recession and President Bush was seen as incapable of the needs of ordinary Americans. .
This was a message that the Democrats invaded the voters and it remained. And this is a strategy that Labor is also pursuing now.
Back in Wolverhampton, the risk for the current incumbent is too clear. Store owner Derek Lewis is a floating voter who voted conservative in the 2019 general election, but believes the cost of living crisis could sink this government.
“I think [Boris Johnson’s] he is doing well, but if he does not control the interest rate, it is clear and simple – as people say, he will be out of office in the next election.
“At the end of the day, it’s up to him. He has to help people, especially people who struggle really hard. Having to choose between heating and eating these days is absolutely ridiculous.”
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