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abour gained a 27-point lead over the Tories in London ahead of the May 5 mayoral election, a new poll revealed on Wednesday.
A YouGov poll on the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University in London found 50 per cent of Labor, more than twice as many as the Conservatives at 23 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats at 12 per cent and the Greens at nine per cent.
In Inner London, Labor has a 50-point lead, according to the findings.
They also speculate that there may be a tactical vote in favor of Labor from Londoners who supported the Liberal Democrats in the 2019 general election.
Dr Patrick Diamond, director of the Mile End Institute at QMUL, said: “Our new study shows that Labor will perform significantly better than the Conservatives in the upcoming London election.
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“Support for conservatives across the city has fallen sharply since the 2018 local elections, but Labor’s voice does not seem to outpace its success this year, when it performed particularly strongly.
Read more: Follow the coverage of the “Standard” for the local elections in 2022
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The findings came as political parties quickly stepped up their campaign just days before election day, with many people already sending their votes by mail.
The 27-point lead for Sir Keir Starmer’s party was in response to a question about how Londoners intend to vote in local elections.
The difference was 22 points in 2018, the last time the district elections were held.
The difference is mainly due to support for the Tories, which fell from 29 percent to 23 percent, with Labor almost unchanged from 51 percent four years ago and the Liberal Democrats, who were 11 percent.
The Greens won positions and are at nine percent.
As a sign of a possible tactical vote amid the storm in front of the party, the poll showed that 35 percent of Londoners who voted for Lib-Dem in the 2019 general election now plan to move to Labor in the mayoral election.
People often vote for different parties in national and local elections, but the percentage of Lib Democrats who intend to support Labor is about three times higher than in 2018, when we refer to the 2017 general election.
The results of the latest poll, with fieldwork conducted between 19 and 22 April, also showed that in Inner London, Labor is at 63 per cent, with an astonishing 50 points ahead of the Tories at 13 per cent.
Not far behind are the Greens with 11 percent and the Liberal Democrats with nine percent.
In outer London, Labor was 42 per cent, the Conservatives 29 per cent, the Democrats 13 per cent and the Greens eight per cent.
Philip Cowley, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, said: “If repeated on election day, these figures will see Labor progress in both inner and outer London. Widespread changes in the area make it difficult to make accurate predictions, but this level of Labor support at least shows that Conservative-controlled Barnet and Wandsworth may be vulnerable, even if Westminster and Hillingdon may remain a little out of Labor. ”
He added: “This would not be the best Labor performance in London ever, as it is still less than the 53 per cent achieved in 1971, but we should see them making a profit. However, all the gains will not be huge – not least because Labor performed well in London the last time these councils were contested in 2018, in what was then the best result since 1971, and therefore there is relatively limited scope for further progress.
He also stressed that although Labor did well in 2018, they were lower than the level of support shown in the polls at the time.
In the last QMUL election poll in 2018, Labor was 51 percent, and in the case of 44 percent, so “this time such caution will be needed,” he added.
When asked directly about the probability of voting, 49% of Londoners said in the latest survey that they would certainly do so, which Prof. Cowley described as “optimistic”.
When asked a similar question in 2018, 51% of Londoners said they would certainly vote, but in this case this level of turnout is only in one district and “much less impressive” across the city. 39%.
Voters have the opportunity to split their votes in London, given that the districts may have two or three polling stations, which is difficult to capture when voting.
Sir Keir has a comfortable lead among all age groups in London, with the exception of retirees.
Among 18-24-year-old Labor, they are ahead with 57 points, 25-49 with 41 points, 50-64 with 21 points, but lag behind by 25 points among Londoners aged 65+.
Labor still receives the support of 66% of voters in the capital from ethnic minority communities (BAME), according to the poll, although this is a drop of 75% in 2018.
Dr Diamond said: “Labor seems to be losing ground to BAME voters in the capital – a worrying development for the party – and the Conservatives are doing better in remote parts of London, possibly due to controversial policies such as ULEZ.
* YouGov interviewed 1,232 adults in London between April 19 and 22. The data is weighted.
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