Jamie Carragher analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of Liverpool and Manchester City in football on Monday night and looked at areas that could lead to losing points as the race for the Premier League title goes to the final.
Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp are still one point apart at the top of the Premier League table after beating Watford and Everton respectively over the weekend.
They have five games left to play, with Liverpool facing what appears to be a more complicated match on paper, but Carragher believes both sides will slip between now and the end of the campaign.
“We’re talking about two brilliant teams,” the Sky Sports expert told Monday Night Football. “You can’t really divide them into an area of the game, but I can see they both drop points.”
Image: Man City is one point ahead of Liverpool with five games to play
“Liverpool have a big advantage in attack”
Carragher began his analysis by explaining why Liverpool’s firepower could give them an advantage over City.
“Liverpool have a slight advantage in attack and in terms of goals per game,” he said. “They have scored 85 games, Man City 80.
“We say that Man City does not have a striker, but the goals are still absolutely phenomenal.
“But the goal scorer of Man City is De Bruyne with 11, and for Liverpool it is Salah with 22. There is a big difference.
Image: Liverpool’s attacking numbers are better than Man City’s
“Man City obviously distributed a little more goals, but the numbers in terms of their top scorers show that Liverpool have a big advantage in attack.”
He added: “If Man City have to lose points, it will be due to the fact that they may have matches in which they fail to score.
“Man City have failed to score in four games this season – Liverpool only once – and they have scored only once in seven games, so these are 11 games in which they have scored one goal or zero.
“So you think if Man City are going to lose points, it has to be 0-0, there’s evidence of that this season in the games we’ve seen.”
Image: Man City have lost points eight times this season
Former striker Robbie Keane, a guest of Carragher on Monday Night Football, added: “It’s amazing, looking at the whole season, how well Man City did without having a relegated striker.
“If they had a young Sergio Aguero from four or five years ago, I think the league would be over.
“The football they play is amazing to watch. They get bodies in the penalty area and score a lot of goals.
“But those are the times when you need number nine, the fox in the box. I think that’s where they could slip away, especially in tense matches.”
“Why Man City has an advantage in defense”
While City often lose points in low-scoring games, Liverpool’s omissions have often been more chaotic.
“We have to add that many of those games in which Liverpool lost points were at the beginning of the season and there was a change in defense in the second half of the season,” said Carragher.
Image: Liverpool lost points in nine Premier League games
“But if Liverpool lose points, you feel it will not be 0-0, but 2-2.
“The perceived weaknesses of both teams are that City does not have a striker, as well as the high line of Liverpool. But I think in a way, both are strengths for them.
“Defense statistics show that City has the advantage.
“Most people would say that Liverpool have the best defender in the world in Virgil van Dyke, but as a City team they are better in defense and that may have something to do with the lack of a striker.
“Maybe more control over the ball in the game means that people can’t attack them.
Image: Man City has an advantage in defense, according to statistics
“But again, the numbers are very close. Goals conceded, there is nothing in that.
“Where there is a big difference is xG per game. That’s almost a third higher for Liverpool.
“There is nothing in the net, but the great thing that stands out is that Manchester City conceded only one goal from a set, and Liverpool seven.
“Liverpool’s high line is a strength, not a weakness”
Asked why Liverpool were giving their opponents better chances than City, with expected goals ranking Liverpool 14th in the Premier League in the xG shot, Carragher explained: “Many of these situations are through people running to the door against Alison.
“I just mentioned that the lack of a striker in Man City is in a sense a force and the same with Liverpool’s high line.
“The first reason they play high line is because they want to push high to keep their team compact.
Image: Liverpool’s high line also helps them push their opponents high on the pitch
“In terms of high turnovers, ending with shots on goal, they have the highest level in the Premier League and have more than twice as many goals as any other team in these situations.
“The other reason they play high line is how many times they catch the opponent’s offside.
“There is a huge difference between Liverpool (131 offsides) compared to Man City, which is the next best (82).
“So people question the high line, but Liverpool get so much out of it.
Image: Liverpool have caught opponents offside 131 times this season
“When you play in this type of style, you need top players to do it and they have the best defender in the world in Van Dyke and for me the best goalkeeper in the world in Alison.
“It doesn’t always go well and sometimes I question it, but in most cases it comes from body positions. When they have problems, it is not important how high they are on the field, but because the body positions are not correct. Body positions are everything when you play on a high line. “
Carragher believes that Tottenham, in particular, will imagine their chances of taking advantage of Liverpool’s high line, given how Harry Kane is able to choose Hyun-Min Son’s runs from behind, but he believes the presence Alison’s door is key to reducing risk.
Image: Alison is the best goalkeeper in the Premier League in one-on-one situations
“The third reason they play a high position is that Liverpool have the best goalkeeper in the world in dealing with these situations,” added Carragher. “You know he’s great in those positions.
“For me, the best goalkeeper in the world of one on one. Statistics show that Liverpool had to concede eight more goals than in one this season.
“Thats the difference. They support their goalkeeper to deal with this in every game, because they have the best to deal with him. On top of that, the high line helped them move forward and score goals on their own.
“So when people say that this high line is a problem, I go back to what I said about Manchester City’s fake nine.
“They are perceived as a weakness – and have to make a mistake only once between now and the end of the season, which could cost the title to both teams.
“But they are not huge problems for any team, they are actually strengths.”
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