When Rishi Sunak appeared before Parliament’s influential liaison committee this week, he doubled down on NHS pay rises in what looked very much like an attempt to turn the winter of strikes into his Thatcher moment.
Just like his political heroine before him, he took on the unions, telling MPs the country could not afford more public sector pay rises, warning them they risked worsening inflation – and that politicians should not to “cut through” the independent pay review process.
The Prime Minister, who in recent weeks has been forced to make U-turns on housing and onshore wind farm targets by the Tory Party’s rebellion, appears to have seen the strikes as an opportunity to prove wrong to those who accuse him of being weak.
He strongly denied reports he was preparing to go down in his showdown with union leaders, warning striking workers he would resist their “unreasonable” pay demands for months if necessary.
His ministers accused the unions of “holding the country to ransom”, just as Thatcher did in 1979 before a landslide Tory election victory. And he challenged Labor leader Keir Starmer to back anti-strike legislation due to be introduced next year in the belief the public would be on his side.
This is a risky strategy. More than 1.5 million workers were voted into strike action this winter – meaning most people will know someone who is taking strike action and can see for themselves that they, like everyone else, are struggling with the cost of living.
Senior Downing Street officials have privately acknowledged the differences in public sentiment towards health workers and other striking sectors – particularly in rail transport, although postal workers and Border Force staff are also walking out this week.
Sunak hoped the debate would focus on nurses’ pay, with the public feeling demands for a 19% increase were unreasonable. But the public has not forgotten that frontline staff in the NHS have had an effective real-terms pay freeze for a decade, while putting their lives at risk every day during the pandemic.
The focus of the discussion has now shifted to the state of the NHS, with harrowing stories of the pressures hospitals and ambulance crews face as they struggle to get health services through the winter, much more difficult territory for the government.
Far from public support falling over the winter, support for nurses has risen by seven points since the strikes in England, Wales and Northern Ireland were announced at the end of November, according to pollster Savanta. More than half of people (54%) blame the government for nurses taking action, 27% blame unions and just 11% blame nurses.
Another poll, YouGov, reports that most Britons support strikes by nurses (66% support vs 28% opposed) and ambulance workers (63% support vs 31% opposed).
There is also growing concern among Conservative MPs that Sunak’s plan to confront striking NHS staff will not work, with Geoffrey Clifton-Brown the latest to publicly voice concerns. He said ministers were “repeating” lines about complying with pay review bodies’ recommendations because the justification for rejecting raises was “unrealistic”.
Sunak hinted he could review the powers of pay review bodies for next year – which have been set by the government despite suggestions ministers have little control – with the prime minister saying “the door is always open” to discuss “these things in the future”. But some unions are considering withdrawing from the system altogether.
Strikes by ambulance and NHS staff can be averted through negotiations, the Scottish Government has shown, even as it remains at loggerheads with Nurses Scotland, which on Wednesday rejected its latest pay offer. In contrast, the Westminster government appears inflexible and unyielding.
Sunak is also reported to have rejected Health Secretary Steve Barclay’s proposal for a lump sum payment for NHS staff, leaving his department with even less room to maneuver in the coming months, with more industrial action expected from NHS unions and teachers are expected to join the fray.
Even a people’s government would struggle to take on health unions on pay – particularly nurses who are walking out for the first time in their history. The Tories remain at least 20 points behind Labor in the polls – with the health service job divide also wide – and public sympathy for NHS staff remains strong.
Sunak may be hoping that by emulating Thatcher’s staunch stance on unions, public support will eventually wane. But if the NHS collapses at the end of it all, who will the public blame? Voters can see for themselves that strikes or not, public services are already on their knees.
The Prime Minister may also want to go back to 1989, when even the Thatcher government had to concede pay during the last ambulance strike, with workers eventually winning a 16.9% pay rise over 18 months against of huge public support for NHS staff.
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