TORONTO – Four years ago, the Ontario Liberals had a majority government, and today they are not so affectionately called the “minivan party”, occupying so few seats that they could go to a caucus meeting.
They spent time after their 2018 elections trying to rebuild it, albeit without the benefit of much of their powerful old-fashioned machine. Studies show that they may not be completely ruled out, but moving from seven seats to government is a difficult task.
Leader Stephen Del Duca was elected by members days before the first blockade of COVID-19 in 2020, and Liberals say he has spent the last two years listening to Ontario residents as they identify failure to do so as a key cause of loss. them in 2018
Del Duca, who does not hold a seat in the legislature, also allowed him to invest a lot of energy in recruiting candidates.
“We started thinking about it because we were obviously coming in … from a very backward position, what can we do to put us in a better position? And we focused on the team, “said campaign director Christine McMillan.
The candidates themselves played a big role in the development of the platform, partly because the party was working on skeletal staff, but also to benefit from their experience, Macmillan said. Their list includes a personal support service, an emergency room doctor, the hospital’s chief executive and a well-known mayor.
Rob Gilmore, a strategist and former member of the Progressive Conservatives, said the Liberals had put together an impressive team. He noted as a revelation that Macmillan is a partner in Crestview Strategy, the company of which he is vice president – “I think she is wonderful. Will I vote for her? No, absolutely not. ”
“I’m impressed with the Liberal Party and the effort it has made to hire really interesting, really strong, really diverse candidates from all parts of Ontario,” Gilmore said.
“It is clear to me that they are serious about restoring their party and restoring their brand. But it is also clear to me that they need to be serious about rebuilding their party and rebuilding their brand, because there is a reason they only won seven seats in 2018.
Rising water prices have become a source of anger against the 15-year-old liberal government, with then-Prime Minister Kathleen Winn admitting she did not pay enough attention to the impact of their attempts to make the electrical system greener on people’s portfolios.
They also angered progressive voters with the partial sale of Hydro One and angered the business community by swiftly raising the minimum wage.
As liberals strive to overcome any continued anger since then, they see the new list of candidates as the key to success. But how does a party that starts so far determine success?
Anna Esselment, a professor of political science at the University of Waterloo, said she did not believe the Liberals were betting on a government this time.
“I guess they have two choices,” she said. “They will have goals for this spring that will be in line with their goals for 2026. So what I would imagine, in the state they are in now, is that their first goal will be to achieve official status. party.”
Their seven-seat assembly was just a disgrace to official party status – recognition by the legislature, which allows them more resources – but since then the Progressive Conservative government has raised the threshold from eight to 12.
Minority government is not impossible, said Andrew Steele, a strategist and former senior Liberal official, but most liberals are likely to have a balanced set of expectations.
“Finishing in second place is a real achievement to build on,” said Steele, vice president at StrategyCorp.
“I don’t think there is a number to which people would hold anyone accountable. The question is rather, can we restore the party’s status and the resources that go with it? Did we comply well and define ourselves as the real opposition to Doug Ford?
Both the NDP and the Liberals are fighting for a vote against Ford, positioning themselves as the only party that can defeat it. The NDP noted a significant reduction in the Liberals’ footprint compared to their own 39-seat assembly as evidence they could provide. Liberals say historically they are the ones beating the Conservatives.
In the last election, polls showed that the NDP had been at the helm for some time before the progressive Conservatives reached a large majority, and then the Liberals were the weakest, Steele said.
“There is a small ceiling in support for the NDP, which makes it really difficult for them to win the Ontario election,” he said.
“It has to be a very special set of sections to win, while the Liberals are a more viable big tent to unite the voice that is not Doug Ford. So … by winning these progressive primary elections first, it allows them to be seen as the real opposition to Doug Ford and then to move into a position to be seen not just as an alternative, but as a party that can do more. good management work. “
Macmillan said voters should not expect to hear liberals talk a lot about NDP leader Andrea Horvat.
“(It will be) Doug Ford, period. “Everything will be conservative,” she said. “Our message to voters is that this is a choice between conservatives and liberals.”
Esselment said that liberals do not start from scratch in this regard.
“They are not usually a third country and voters are certainly used to voting for liberals,” she said. “So I think there will have to be a little bit of that message in that sense: we are rightly the ones who have to be in either the government or the opposition.
Polls show that “progressive primary elections” are doing well for the Liberals so far, with two recent polls putting them ahead of the NDP. But in general, positive research does not necessarily turn into a place, and with relatively reduced resources, liberals will have to focus their efforts.
The campaign is likely to spend a lot of time in the Greater Toronto region, seeking to regain lost ground in vocal-rich and often liberal-friendly regions.
GTA is an environment rich in local goals, and I think election night will be about – whether through a majority or a minority, or who will ultimately be prime minister – the story will be told mostly in Brampton, Mississauga and Scarborough. Said Gilmore.
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