16 minutes ago 17:05
My colleague Kim Wilshere spent the last few days in the wake of Marin Le Pen during the final moments of his campaign in the first round, speaking to voters and reflecting on how the far-right leader has changed society’s image of her and her. . her party:
Marin Le Pen took over the then National Front in 2011 and undertook to wash away his image, tainted by xenophobic neo-Nazi thugs with shaved heads and boots. Members were expelled for racist and anti-Semitic statements or to defend Philip Petten, head of the Vichy-backed Vichy government in the 1940s. She even dumped her own father in 2015.
After his defeat in 2017 against Emmanuel Macron, Kim says:
She renamed the party the National Rally. She stopped calling for the death penalty and for France to leave the EU. It continues to defend nationalist discrimination “primarily French”, but also has a commitment to the left-wing economy, including increasing pensions, opposing the privatization of public services and protectionism as an alternative to globalization. It does not offer zero immigration and has abandoned the party’s opposition to equality in marriage and abortion.
Her critics say she has changed her style, not the party’s toxic substance – but as the left-wing Jean-Jaures Foundation has noted, her personal detoxification process appears to have been successful:
Arguments about her incompetence or lack of knowledge no longer seem to hold water at a time when parts of France see her as completely presidential and close to the people and no more worrying than other candidates.
As Kim concluded:
For many French people, the name Le Pen is no longer viewed with contempt. If, as expected, Le Pen does enough to reach the second round on April 24, Macron will face the biggest political battle of his career to keep it out of the Elysee Palace.
Updated at 17.20 BST
37 minutes ago 16:44
Veteran correspondent in France John Lichfield summed up the tension over this election campaign in a recent opinion of the Guardian.
Could the country really be on the verge of electing a far-right president, he asked?
Le Pen’s economic program is an inconsistent mess. Its European policy is Frexit by stealth – unilaterally reducing payments to the EU budget and violating EU laws that it does not like. She also wants to ban all Muslim women from wearing veils in public.
However, as Lichfield notes:
Opinion polls show that if enough left-wing voters stay at home in the second round, refusing to choose between Macron (“president of the rich”) and the seemingly “sweeter, gentler” Le Pen, she can win. Just.
Macron could reduce unemployment in France to 7.4%, the lowest in 13 years, fly France through Covid better than many other comparable countries and revitalize the EU with its ideas and energy, Lichfield said.
On the other hand:
France is an angry country. It is always an angry state. It is particularly angry at the moment because the war in Ukraine has inflated the already high prices of petrol, diesel and food. But there is no real appetite in France for confrontational policies that would destroy the 80-year-old post-war political consensus on outward-looking tolerance and European unity …
This, he concluded, would be “a terrible two weeks for anyone interested in the well-being of France or Europe”.
You can read John’s entire piece here:
Updated at 16.45 BST
1 hour ago 16:24
Turnout at 5pm local time – three hours before polls closed – was 65%, more than four percentage points lower than in the last presidential election, but significantly higher than the record low of 2002 of 58%. .
1 hour ago 16:13
The two-round election process in France, designed by Charles de Gaulle to keep extremists at bay (the French say you vote with your heart first and then with your head), can be difficult for those unfamiliar. with him.
Here is a brief guide on how the system works, how France’s moderate left has been plunged into disorder, how the main right is not much better, what the leading candidates stand for, and what happens next:
2 hours ago 15:43
The difference in the vote between the two favorites has narrowed dramatically in the last few weeks. Exactly one month ago, on March 10, Emmanuel Macron – prompted by a rally over the flag after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – was about 30% and Marine Le Pen – about 18%, according to the Guardian election observer.
On average, recent opinion polls show that the two are 26% and 23%, respectively, a difference that is equivalent to the tolerable error of many sociological organizations. The far-left torch of Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of La France Insoumise (Unconquered France), also rose from 12% to 17% over the same period.
Meanwhile, Valerie Pecres of the right-wing Les Républicains party has seen her support fall from 12% to 8%, and Eric Zemmour, the TV polemicist whose extreme stance on Islam and immigration has done much to make Le Pen seem sensible, has dropped. from 12% to 9%.
🇨🇵📊 The latest @IpsosFrance poll for @lemondefr, conducted today with 10,425 people registered to vote:
🟠Macron 26.5%, = ⚫Le Pen 22.5%, + 1🔴Mélenchon 17.5%, + 1.5Zemmour 9%, – 1🔵Pécresse 8.5%, = 🟢Jadot 5%, – 1 pic .twitter/UALF.com
– mathieugallard (@mathieugallard) April 8, 2022
The final pre-election survey of Ipsos France, which has the largest sample size (10,425 respondents), so it should generally be more accurate, showed Macron at 26.5%, Le Pen at 22.5% and Melanchon at 17.5%.
Updated at 15.44 BST
2 hours ago 15:25
Analysts are unanimous in saying that turnout among a disappointed French electorate will be absolutely critical of the election, and at noon it was 25.48%, down from the previous three presidential elections (28.5% in 2017, 28 , 3% in 2012 and 31.2% in 2007), but over 2002 (21.4%), which for those of you with a long memory was the year in which Marin Le Pen’s father Jean- Marie made it to the second round.
❗️ The participation in lunch reaches 25.48%.
This is less than the three previous presidential elections (28.5% in 2017, 28.3% in 2012 and 31.2% in 2007), but more than in 2002 (21.4%) ). # Presidentielle2022 pic .twitter.com / 2elE3uAszO
– Nicholas Berrod (@nicolasberrod) April 10, 2022
At this stage, it is difficult to say who may be useful. Low voter turnout is widely seen as bad news for the far-right leader, as it could be a sign that her supporters, who often do not show up on election day in polls, may again be far behind.
On the other hand, some of the details in this noon turnout data may ring several alarming bells at the president’s camp: abstinence appears to be higher in the Paris area, which was a strong pro-macron in the last 2017 election. while turnout in some areas that voted mainly for Le Pen five years ago appears to be significantly higher.
The next data on the turnout is expected at 5 pm local time, so then we can get a clearer picture. But there will be no certainty about what all this means until the first forecasts, when the polls end at 20:00 – these, by the way, are not exit polls, but estimates based on actual votes cast in a representative selection of polling stations across the country. country. They are usually very accurate.
Updated at 15.26 BST
2 hours ago 15:03
Today is election day in France
John Henley
Hello and welcome to our live coverage of the first round of the French presidential election in 2022.
It seems to be something very close, with opinion polls showing that the gap between Marin Le Pen in the far-right National Rally and the outgoing president, centrist Emmanuel Macron, has been steadily declining over the past few weeks.
These two candidates remain favorites to move to the runoff on April 24, which will determine who will occupy the Elysee Palace over the next five years, although support for radical leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon is also rising and the abstention could play chaos with everyone. election forecasts.
It was a strange, muted campaign, which in many ways never materialized, hijacked first by the pandemic and then by the war in Ukraine. But its consequences could be far-reaching, not only for France’s future direction, but for Europe as a whole.
We will provide you with news, comments and analysis from me, the head of the Guardian’s Paris bureau Angelique Chrysafis and correspondent Kim Wilshere, with usually accurate forecasts of the results of the first round, which are expected when polling stations close at 20:00 local time.
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