The last time the Flames qualified for the playoffs was two years ago on the balloon. Their date in the same year: Dallas Stars. This first round match is a match for malice and this is the one that the Flames should win quite easily.
Calgary, not surprisingly, enters this series as a big favorite. Although this may evoke some bad memories from the last time this was the case – a very disappointing loss in 2019 – the current iteration is very different from this group.
These Flames are older, wiser, more experienced and seamlessly blended their fast-paced style with a heavy element created for the playoffs. Calgary is the best of both worlds in this regard, which is the biggest thing that separates Flames from other contenders.
They were created for this and started with a series against a weaker opponent, although one that is not far from their own post-season success.
Only two years ago, the stars unexpectedly made it to the Stanley Cup final. In the end, they were thwarted by Lightning, but their style of play suited them well in the playoffs. This series began with the defeat of the Flames and Calgary apparently hopes to reverse the scenario here.
The flames are the ones who have a strong hockey advantage this time, which makes an already impressive team look even scarier for the stars. This is not a team that Dallas will be able to pass and when this element disappears, the skill must prevail – and Calgary has a lot of it.
The flames are deep in every position and this has led to some incredibly strong numbers this season. They look like the most complete team in the league, proof of Daryl Sutter’s coaching skills. He maximizes and optimizes the potential of this team to the greatest extent and as a result they look like a real contender.
The results of the Flames for the whole season in all categories except three shown are in the highest level. This shows how complete this team is. Their offensive generation is elite, the defense is stable and they have the goalkeepers to support it.
The only red flag is how some of them have decreased in the last month. There was a slight drop in their expected goal generation, but you wouldn’t recognize it by their appearance as their actual score increased, as did their shooting rate. On the other hand, recently Calgary is a little better at limiting strikes, but allows more quality chances – this can be seen in the protocol.
Will these slight declines in this match matter? Probably not. Stars’ offensive performance puts them between the middle and the bottom of the league. However, Dallas should have more to show for their efforts, especially in the last month, when they managed to score the low 1.93 goals at 60. Now the task is to fix this against a first-class defense.
Dallas are doing better in their own zone than in attack, at least there were slight improvements in the last section before the blue paint – except for the penalty. The efforts of the stars to limit the quality chances while short-haired were the fourth best this season, although their goalkeepers did not meet this level. In the last month, the opposite is true. Calgary’s penalty was mostly better, but not their goalkeepers in the last month.
The Flames can also have the advantage of special teams with their powerful game – as long as their completion can return to the right path after failing. The problems of the Stars are below the surface; they need to return to their levels earlier in the year and somehow deal with this against this criminal murder.
One of the most intriguing matches in the entire playoffs comes in this series between two of the best top lines in hockey. Both Calgary and Dallas celebrated when their top units were on the ice this season, especially at five to five. It will be a great pleasure to see them face each other.
Not surprisingly, the Flames trio comes forward. This shouldn’t shock anyone, given what they’ve done together this season. No line played more than their 964 minutes together at five to five, and during that time they absolutely ignited the league, winning 63 percent of the expected percentage of goals and surpassing opponents 73-31. This is a mind-boggling number; plus-42 differential, which was 12 better than the next best line. Prior to this season, the record was a plus-30 by Siddins and Alex Burroughs in 2009-10. The Calgary line erased that amount.
Playing for many minutes together certainly helps, but it was the chemistry and fit of the three tracks that made the line shine. Johnny Gaudreau is one of the best puck winners in the game, a zone wizard and an excellent playmaker. Matthew Tkachuk is probably the best striker in the game and the best balanced player – a unicorn who can do anything. Elias Lindholm is a responsible two-way point touch center. Together they were a symphony of hockey magic – all scored over 40 goals during the season. This is a rarity. Godro and Tkachuk also scored over 100 points each.
There are some concerns about how well this will turn out in the playoffs, mainly because little Godro often fights there. But this line seems to have been built to isolate him during the tougher playoff game and allow him to thrive more than before. This is a perfect line and one that will contribute to every team you play against.
Dallas is first on the list and although the Stars have a fantastic own top line, it is not quite at the level of Calgary. The trio of stars is the fourth best in the playoffs, but there is a significant difference of 2.4 wins between them and the third best line – Calgary.
Like the Flames, there is chemistry at the top of the Stars after spending a lot of time together for the past two years. At five to five this season, they are second in the league in minutes played together, behind only Calgary’s leading trio.
Each member of this line contributes something to make it click. In the middle there is a smoothly sliding Roope Hintz, who is trusted in all situations thanks to his two-sided game. He can be relied on to fight for loose puck and move the puck up the ice to the controlled offensive zone. Along with his defenses and ability to score goals, his vision helps him find choices for his teammates.
To his right is veteran Joe Pavelski, whose game does not appear to have been influenced by Father Time, as might be expected. In fact, he peaked his career with 81 points in all situations – his best performance since scoring 79 points in 2013-14. This year, his percentage is five out of five (2.48 points out of 60), which is above the rest. It is not fed as much by goals as in previous years; instead, he earned more primary assists than years earlier. Pavelsky’s striking speed is also declining, although he can still be seen scoring points, especially with his hand-eye coordination for peaks and deviations at the front of the net.
Hinz and Pavelsky are not the only double threats on this line. There is also Jason Robertson, who is emerging as a star in this league after a strong season for recruits and an even more remarkable second year. The winger scored an impressive 41 goals in 74 games and 79 points. Much of that result – about 68 percent – was won by five to five. While his teammates had a slight advantage in their strike positions, he led in volume and finish – something that made his improved patience even more dangerous. But that’s not all he can contribute; smart passes create his teammates, challenging the defenders even more.
Together, the star’s top line generated more than 60 percent of expected goals while they were on the ice at five to five, creating shots both in the fast and while maintaining pressure outside the cycle, surpassing their opponents at a slightly lower speed. As excellent as they are, they still don’t reach the best in Calgary.
Unfortunately for the Stars, the benefits of the Flames do not end there – they are just beginning. Calgary is stronger not only in the top line, but in the entire midfield. The stars are a one-line team that faces a relatively deep top nine.
The flames were much thinner at the front, but made some major adjustments this year, returning to the signing of Blake Coleman from last season. His 33 points may not bounce off the page, but he presented himself as promised as a strong two-way re-checking force at five to five – one with a very champion pedigree. He played the game hard, which helped him win 57 percent of the expected percentage of goals this year with a positive impact at both ends of the ice.
Calgary stepped up this quest for depth with the acquisition of Tyler Tofoli in the middle of the season, one of the best wings in the league. He was amazing last season for Montreal, a year in his career, but he saw his stock fall this year after the Canadians fell to the bottom of the table. Unfortunately for Calgary, his game has not improved much with the Flames, as he has scored just 23 points in 37 games while scoring 48 per cent of expected goals, one of the team’s lowest scores. It’s a little troubling whether the Flames have a desire to deepen, but Tofoli has the talent to turn things around – especially if they catch up with a better passer. Calle Jarnkrok was the last piece added just in time, and he is a decent and agile striker who fits well into the third line of the team.
The biggest thing to worry about for Stars in Calgary’s midfield is not who drew the team to strengthen the depth, but who has already been there: Andrew Mangiapane. The unforeseen wing had a monstrous season, scoring 35 goals, 23 of which were five to five. Considering his ice time and the Mangiapane season, it looks even more impressive. He …
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