At various times this season, there was a feeling that both Oilers and Kings might not even make it.
The Kings started the year as playoff long shots despite the strong off-season and dealt with many injuries along the way. The Oilers started strong, but failed in the middle of the season. But after a season full of ups and downs, they are both here. The Kings reunited after losing their best defender to injury, while the Oilers came to life after a change behind the bench.
Edmonton looked like a well-oiled machine after the change of coach, a team that looks among the best in the West. The turn of Los Angeles will come one day with the young core that the team has accumulated, but this day is probably not this year.
The Kings are more than happy to be here, but they still enter this series as tough outsiders.
The probability of almost 70-30 split in the series is far from the most distorted series of the first round. But the Oilers still enter the series as a decisive favorite – something that the relative “weight” of each team does not change.
The most likely result here is an Oilers victory in five games, although any Oilers result is more likely than any Kings victory. That doesn’t mean the Kings can’t win this series – it’s just not very likely.
This is especially true when we look at how both teams ended the season. The topicality is not something that is reflected in the odds listed above, but if you like a team that comes up, the Oilers are this.
The Oilers are probably not as dominant as these numbers, but they are probably not as average as their numbers for the entire season. Nevertheless, this is still a team that has a significant advantage over the Kings.
Edmonton’s advantage stems from his game after the change of coach. Before that, things were pretty bleak for Oilers. There were problems in the network, in defense and insufficient offensive contributions under their top players.
At five to five, the Oilers moved from a regular team to an attack that could create better chances on a more permanent basis under Jay Woodcroft. It would help to have better luck in shooting; in the last month it has deviated slightly from the rest of the league. If this regresses closer to their average, then they should be in better shape.
With some strategic changes back to their own zone, the Oilers have done a better job of limiting the volume of strikes, although that too has slipped over the past month. This group is still far from perfect, but a better game in front of the fold seems to have helped lift their game in the door.
If the current trend continues for Edmonton, it will lead to a favorable match against a team with serious problems with the final. Los Angeles is a good team in creating attacks in terms of quality and quantity, but the results are far behind. Based on the quality of their shots, the Kings are expected to be closer to 178 goals this season, which would put them in the top half of the league. In fact, they are much lower with 153 goals scored – the product of a good system that lacks talent.
However, team defense is the power of kings. Although they conceded more blows in the last month than in the whole season as a whole, there was an effort to limit the quality chances against. Their goalkeepers just have to respond well to this load. Goalkeeping was at an average level for the year, but it fell. In order for the Kings to have a shot, they must click on both their finishing talent and the goalkeeper. Not having one would probably mean getting out early.
The battle of the special teams is also in Edmonton’s favor. The strong game does not return to the heights that the season was supposed to open, but it is still effective. Like Connor McDavid and Leon Drysight, who are playing this unit against a penalty that ranks in the bottom half of the league in both expected and actual goals, is a good concern for Los Angeles.
Kings are also struggling to finish with the advantage of men, even though they are moving in the right direction below the surface. Again, talent is a problem. Despite some improvements in their short-handed game, the Oilers aren’t perfect in their own zone – the strong goalkeeping has recently helped them disguise themselves. There is a chance that the outsider will try to increase the pace here, especially if Edmonton’s game on the net does not last. But the odds here are right against them. There is too much to overcome on the part of talent.
The biggest reason the Oilers are so popular in this series is that they have McDavid and Drysight, and the Kings don’t. Players 3 to 20 are relatively close, but having two of the best players in the world tipped the scales in Edmonton’s favor. In hockey, it is difficult for a player to dictate the outcome of a match on his own, but there are exceptions to this rule. McDavid is one of those exceptions and Draisaitl is not far off.
McDavid is one of two players who are expected to secure more than six valuable victories, and this comes from his unearthly ability to influence the attack. In the last five seasons, he has almost 100 points ahead of the next best non-Euler in points, having won the title in three of those five seasons. That he did it this year, even though he was terribly unlucky with his five-on-five shooting rate, is proof of his talent.
What has made McDavid extremely special in the last two seasons is his attention to detail in defense. Before the 2020-21 season, McDavid’s defense was a major issue that kept his overall value. It is no coincidence that his best offensive seasons followed, as McDavid became a much more complete player. His defense is still mediocre, but it’s a huge step forward and makes his offensive play more impressive. Compared to his teammates, the only player with more influence over the expected goals in the last two years from McDavid is his honorable teammate Jesse Pulyuarvi. Combine this with the ability to score 130 points and you will have a frightening weapon to contain.
The fact that the Oilers also have Draisaitl makes them even scarier, especially now that the two are on different lines. Draisaitl doesn’t have the same playing presence as McDavid, mostly because of his weak defensive ability, but he doesn’t really need to be on the second line to bring huge value thanks to his offensive abilities. It is extremely rare for a Draisaitl-caliber weapon to lead the second line, but the accumulation of capable depths in the last few years has offered the Oilers the luxury of doing just that. There just aren’t many people who can score or fit with Draisaitl’s speed. He is a double threat.
While McDavid and Dreisytle work on separate lines to distribute the wealth, there will be many times when the duo will come together to overload the defense of Los Angeles. It’s hard to see that the Kings can handle this. With these two, stellar power is in Edmonton’s favor.
After Drew Dauty was absent for the rest of the year, the Kings are missing the only player with elite potential. While the addition of Phillip Danault has eased Anze Kopitar’s workload and helped him recover, he is not at the elite level he was before. The advantage of Los Angeles with these two is the defensive force in the middle. While McDavid and Drysight may be more valuable, Kopitar and Danault have the ability to tip the scales with their collective defensive presence – and they’re not exactly offensive either.
In previous years, Danault’s five-on-five offensive was not very noticeable, but his elite defensive influence was the highlight of his game. This absolutely shone in the unexpected run of the Canadiens to the Stanley Cup final – the closing of Austin Matthews in the 1st round and Mark Stone in the semifinals. That’s what McDavid and Dreisytle face in this round. And as much as they can try to control the match at home, the presence of Kopitar makes this a challenge. This is a duel that the Oilers duo must win due to their explosive attack (McDavid is superior to both), but Danault and Kopitar have a sublime way to undo that. It will not be easy.
Kopitar has been involved in Selke’s conversation for years, and sometimes this two-way reputation is exaggerated. Last year, the offensive effect was still there, but his game in his own zone deviated. This year, however, this reputation was well earned. It may be due to the fact that Danault relieves some of the pressure of this exclusion role, but it seems to revive his game. This season, Kopitar limited the expected generation of goals by opponents by almost 8 percent more than the average player, after taking into account the starts of the zone, coaching impact and competition.
Apart from the two central games, the rest of the depth ahead is also an advantage for Edmonton, although obviously not to the same extent. It starts with the fact that the Oilers have four other strikers who are honest top six talents, three of whom are of the highest caliber.
Two of them, Evander Kane and Puluyarvi, surround McDavid, and while this is obviously a convenient place, they both fit in perfectly with McDavid.
Although Kane came to Oilers with a lot of luggage off the ice, he gave even more than expected on the ice, playing at a rate of 3.3 wins this season. Scoring 22 goals and 39 points in 42 games will make this a steady pace for the whole season of 43 goals and 76 points. In essence, he continued exactly where he stopped with the Sharks. Pulujujarvi is the worker bee on the line and his work down is amazing. He may not produce much, but he quickly became one of the best players in the game – McDavid’s expected goals are always stronger with Puljuarvi next to him. Add Kane’s sniping ability to this along with …
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