Russian and Ukrainian forces are converging in the east as thousands of civilians have fled the region before what threatens to be the next major battle of the war.
The battle may look significantly different from the battle for the Ukrainian capital, in which Russian forces were pushed out of areas around Kyiv, leaving smoldering tanks and bombed-out houses in the suburbs.
After withdrawing from the areas around Kyiv, Russian forces moved to a new offensive in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine.
They will operate in familiar territory there, given Russia’s invasion in 2014 and with shorter supply lines, analysts say. The Russians will also be able to rely on an extensive network of trains to supply their army – for them there was no such railway network north of Kyiv.
Ukraine’s leaders say they are also preparing for a major clash. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called on NATO leaders to send reinforcements last week. Western weapons have been dumped in Ukraine in recent days, but Kuleba said more are needed, and quickly. The battle for eastern Ukraine “will remind you of World War II,” he warned.
The center of gravity appears to be near the eastern city of Izyum, which Russian forces seized last week as they tried to join other forces in the Donbass region of southeastern Ukraine. The Russians are also trying to strengthen the land corridor between Donbass and the Crimean Black Sea Peninsula, which Russia invaded and annexed in 2014.
There are other signs that the two armies are preparing for a major battle. Recently published satellite images show a Russian convoy of hundreds of vehicles moving south through the Ukrainian city of Veliki Burluk, east of Kharkov and north of Izyum, according to Maxar Technologies, which released the images on Sunday.
“It will be a large-scale battle with hundreds of tanks and war machines – it will be extremely brutal,” said Franz-Stefan Gaddy, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. “The scope of military operations will be significantly different from anything the region has seen before.”
Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Moscow has supported separatist uprisings in two eastern provinces, Donetsk and Luhansk. The conflict has killed more than 14,000 people in the last eight years.
“Russia is operating in a field that is very familiar,” said Keir Giles of the Center for Conflict Studies in Britain. Moscow’s forces “will learn from their mistakes in the first days of the campaign against Ukraine,” he added.
There are also additional benefits for Russia from the railways to the east, Mr Giles said, explaining that the networks there are dense and pass through territories that are already under Russian control.
And yet, despite all the supposed advantages of Russia in the east, some analysts doubt that the army will be more effective in eastern Ukraine than it was north of Kyiv. Russian forces attacking the Ukrainian capital have been so badly damaged that many units are too exhausted to fight again, according to Western officials and analysts. They also say many Russian units appear to be suffering from low morale, with some soldiers refusing to fight.
“It will usually take months for a serious army to rebuild, but the Russians seem to be throwing them into this battle,” said Frederick W. Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Institute of Entrepreneurship, in partnership with the War Research Institute. of the war in Ukraine. “The forces they have are very broken and their morale seems low.
Mr Kagan said Russian forces in the east could face some of the same mobility problems they suffered during their invasion of northern Ukraine. Russian forces were largely confined to the country’s roads, as they were unable to cross the terrain. This has made Russian armored vehicles and trucks vulnerable to attack by Ukrainian forces, which – using anti-tank missiles delivered from the West – have destroyed hundreds of Russian vehicles.
For Russians, transport problems are likely to worsen. The spring rains will turn much of the terrain into mud, which will further impede mobility.
Mr Kagan noted that Russian forces were “remarkably connected to the road, which could actually make the east more challenging because the road network is much worse than the network around Kyiv”.
Ultimately, Mr Kagan said, both armies face serious challenges.
“The Russians have to bear a lot of burdens, but they have a lot of problems,” Mr Kagan said. “Ukrainians have high morale, high motivation. And a lot of determination. But they are superior and do not have the infrastructure of a militarized state to support them. “
I think it’s a throw.
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