Similarly, basic infrastructure, including roads and bridges – destroyed either in battle or on one side to hamper the other’s efforts – need to be rebuilt.
CEPR lists the distribution of food, fuel and medical supplies as a vital first step that will be helped by rebuilding the transport network.
Given the importance of Ukraine’s vast agricultural land, support for agriculture is also a priority, analysts say.
Burakowski then said that a “reconstruction of productive assets” was needed to restore the modern economy, potentially with something better than what had been destroyed.
Replacing aging industries could help the economy recover more, reminiscent of the post-war recovery of Germany and Japan, which eventually became more advanced and richer than many of the victors in the war.
Long-term investment in defense will also be key.
“We need to spend as much as possible to ensure our security,” Burakowski said, both directly for the military and when it comes to broader recovery plans.
“This will affect, for example, the way buildings are to be built to provide shelter for civilians in the event of a new round of war.
At the same time, he says Ukraine’s institutions need support, as law enforcement is cleaned up and the fight against corruption is stepped up.
Thorbjorn Becker of CEPR says the Ukrainian government should have the right to take the initiative and democratically determine how to spend the money, with incoming aid coordinated with an independent agency rather than a stream of groups.
“It really can’t be the usual international financial institutions where countries like Russia and China have a lot to say. It should preferably be linked to the EU, “he said, noting Ukraine’s desire to join the bloc.
“If we think about European military history, we have seen several examples of successful reconstruction. But we have counterexamples to Afghanistan and Iraq, where it was not so easy. These countries did not have the institutional anchoring that the EU would provide to Ukraine.
Burakovsky sees that Ukraine will eventually become a “dynamic economy … at the heart of the EU’s economic complex.”
Gontareva does not even think that it will take so long if the war can be stopped, the reforms carried out and the reconstruction started.
“You can make reforms in three years. “When all the reforms are done, you can make a real recovery of the Ukrainian economy and even the cities in five to 10 years,” she said.
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