The Conservative Party of Canada found a “statistically significant” lead over the ruling Liberals, according to a recent study by Nanos Research.
As of April 22, support for the Conservatives rose 4.3 percentage points in four weeks to 35.6 percent, ahead of the Liberals, whose support fell 2.2 percentage points to 30 percent.
The New Democrats also saw their support drop by two percentage points to 19.6%. Support for the Green Party rose 0.7 percentage points to 5.5 per cent, while it fell 0.5 and 0.2 percentage points respectively for the Quebec bloc (5.4 per cent) and the People’s Party (3.4 per cent).
“But the key conclusion here is that the Conservatives are finding a lead that is statistically significant. It’s beyond error,” sociologist Nick Nanos said on Wednesday in the Trend Line podcast.
Nanos said he had not seen such figures for the Conservatives since Erin O’Toole was the party’s leader.
The Conservatives are currently in the process of electing a new leader, with the deadline for presenting the required $ 300,000 registration fee and the signatures of 500 party members set for this Friday.
Nano said that leaders without leaders could become more popular than those without leaders, as there was no one at the head of the Canadians from whom to “repel”.
Meanwhile, the weaker poll figures represent a “complete rebound of a dead cat” for liberals and the NDP, Nanos said.
Last month, both parties agreed to reach an agreement that the NDP will support minority liberals until 2025, in exchange for agreeing to prioritize certain political issues, such as dental care and housing.
Nanos said that while it is understandable that the Liberals would like to ensure that their budgets are not defeated, this probably comes with a political compromise.
And if the election is held today, he said there is a good chance the Conservatives will win the government.
“Perhaps one of the conclusions here is that although the Liberal Democrat agreement, the parliamentary agreement, provides stability, I think the Canadians woke up and said, ‘Wait a minute.’ Does this mean that we will have this by 2025? Maybe some Canadians are unhappy and see the Conservatives as an alternative. “
The survey is based on 1,084 random telephone interviews with Canadians aged 18 and over ending on April 22. The data is based on a four-week moving average, with the oldest group of 250 interviews dropped each week and a new group of 250 added. The results are accurate within 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
With files from CTVNews.ca producer Sarah Turnbull and The Canadian Press
The latest data from Nanos Research polls show that the Conservatives are leading the Liberals by April 22, 2022 (Nanos)
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