Of all the seats the Progressive Conservatives took in their 2018 majority victory, their victory in Ottawa’s West Nepian was the narrowest – just 175 votes.
But while the Liberals were by far third in the race, this is where Liberal leader Stephen Del Duca headed for Saturday morning, the first of the party’s leaders to go to eastern Ontario.
The eastern region is not expected to be a major battlefield. There is usually a trend towards blue Tories in rural areas and some suburban riding and Liberal red in more urban riding.
The NDP was not a major force in the East, with the exception of the Ottawa Center (although it had 23 years without representation until 2018). Even NDP leader Andrea Horvat joked during his only campaign stop in Ottawa in the last election that Oshawa was the “eastern backbone of the party.”
But the last election was a bit shaky. As former Liberal leader Kathleen Winn’s approval fell and Horvat gained momentum, many progressive-minded voters shifted their support from the Liberals to the NDP in an attempt to prevent RS from forming a majority government.
It was this change in the vote that saw the NDP sweep up Toronto’s urban areas at the expense of the Liberals. And this has led to the loss of the Liberal Party in a number of places in eastern Ontario – all places he hopes to regain.
Progressive primary elections
At this point in the campaign, the Liberals have a slight lead over the NDP, and both parties are struggling to be the main alternative to the RS, which is far ahead at the moment.
“What we saw in the last election was that the first few weeks were what we might call progressive primary elections, where the Liberals and the NDP fought over which party would stand up to the Conservatives,” said Peter Greif, an associate professor of political science. at McMaster University.
“So I think it’s an important part of next week [to]10 days is a shake-up of which of these two parties is becoming a rallying point. “
And Del Duca is the one who makes the first game that becomes the progressive choice of the East.
Ontario Liberal leader Stephen Del Duca, seen here in this April 2022 photo, was the first leader to suspend his campaign in eastern Ontario. (Christopher Katsarov / The Canadian Press)
Here is a brief description of three rides to watch in eastern Ontario.
Ottawa West-Nepean: Two former cabinet ministers and local mayors have been conducting this ride for the Liberals for 15 years. But when Liberal support plummeted in 2018 and shifted to the NDP, it actually allowed PC nominee Jeremy Roberts to win by the slightest margin.
Now that the vitriol shown against Wynne in 2018 is no longer a factor, the Liberals are looking for a comeback. They have chosen Sam Bhalesar, a woman who is the national party secretary, as their candidate.
Chandra Pasma of the NDP, who is closer than any new Democrat in the history of victory in 2018, is back on the ballot this time.
Along with Roberts, who is running for re-election, Stephen Warren is running for the Greens, and Scott Blandford is registered for the New Blue Party.
Ottawa Center: Since the only NDP government in the province lost in 1995, this politically active ride – always among the largest constituencies in the country and the province – has opted for a liberal MPP. In 2018, newcomer Joel Harden won the NDP’s Progressive Orange Ride with an incredible 8000+ votes.
With the struggle in this ride usually between the NDP and the Liberals, the one with inertia in the last week of the election may make a difference here. Keep in mind that Del Duca does not attend this ride, at least not at this stop of the campaign.
The Liberals have Katie Gibbs run for office, Scott Healy is the Progressive Conservative candidate, and Shelby Bertrand is running for the Greens.
Also registered are Glen Armstrong for the New Blue Party, Mark Adornato for the Party of Direct Democracy “Nobody from Above” and independent candidate Raymond Samuels.
Kingston and the Islands: This strong liberal ride saw some NDP action in the early 1990s and then again in 2018, when Ian Arthur defeated the incumbent Liberal by more than 6,000 votes.
But since Arthur is not running for re-election, the ride is wide open.
The Liberals’ bus will stop here on Saturday afternoon on its way back from Ottawa to the GTA, presumably to support the campaign of Liberal candidate Ted Hsu, a former one-term lawmaker.
Hsu faces some well-known candidates. The new NDP candidate is Mary Rita Holland, a local city councilor. And the PC candidate is Gary Bennett, former mayor of Kingston, who is also running for the Progressive Conservatives in 2018, when he came close to third after the NDP.
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