“Demand will be and will have to be curtailed by eliminating cash housing,” she said. “And that has become very clear in recent months.”
In addition to war, pandemics and rising interest rates, China is facing a slump in the real estate sector, and Brazil’s economy could be damaged by political turmoil related to the upcoming election, she said.
New data shows that China’s economic growth and retail sales are declining as the government imposes comprehensive blockades to eliminate the coronavirus. By April 11, 87 of China’s 100 largest cities had imposed some form of traffic restriction, according to Gavekal Dragonomics, an economic research firm.
Restrictions are again disrupting global supply chains for electronics, automotive parts and other goods, and reducing Chinese imports of oil, food and consumer goods. China is the world’s largest importer of oil, and cooling demand there prompted the International Energy Agency last week to cut its forecast for oil demand growth this year to 1.9 million barrels a day from an increase of 5.6 million barrels. on the day last year.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and sanctions against Moscow also threaten to drive European economies into recession. Last week, forecasts from Germany’s leading economic institutes predicted that a total European ban on Russian energy imports would shrink German production by 2.2 percent next year and raise inflation to 7.3 percent, a record for post-war Germany.
World trade growth is also expected to slow this year. The World Trade Organization expects world trade in goods to grow by 3 percent this year, lower than the previous forecast of 4.7 percent. But depending on how the pandemic and war unfold, trade growth could be up to 0.5 percent or up to 5.5 percent, Ngozi Okonjo-Iveala, the organization’s director general, told a news conference last Tuesday.
The group forecasts that world trade growth will recover to 3.4% next year, although these estimates are also subject to change.
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