As the globe is in its third pandemic year, biosafety and public health experts say COVID-19 and its variants have shown how vulnerable nations are to biological warfare.
“COVID was a wake-up call,” said James Giordano, executive director of the Institute for Biosafety Research and a professor of neurology at Georgetown University in Washington, DC. He studies how biological technologies can be armed.
“What COVID has really brought to light is the lack of preparedness for a biological threat, whether natural or man-made, or a combination of both.
In the United States, the patchwork response to COVID-19 caused the pandemic to spiral out of control in every single wave. More than 980,000 Americans have been killed by the virus, a death rate much higher than in other rich countries.
Meanwhile, China, the US economic rival with close ties to Russia, is pursuing a strategy of zero tolerance. Every small group of COVID cases forces the government to quickly impose strict blockades.
Community volunteer wearing personal protective equipment disinfects an area before performing a COVID-19 coronavirus test during a blockade in the Pudong district of Shanghai on April 17, 2022 (Liu Jin / AFP / Getty Images)
Although this approach is seen by many as draconian, China says it works. Out of a population of 1.4 billion, China reports less than 14,000 deaths (there is widespread skepticism about the accuracy of this figure). Canada, with a population of 38 million, has lost more than 38,000 lives to COVID.
The United States and Canada have also imposed blockades, but mistrust of government and science and widespread misinformation have caused small pockets of the population to loudly oppose the measures. And the jurisdictional separation of powers meant that each province and state decided its own course of action, with some choosing fewer restrictions than others.
People gather in Calgary to protest COVID-19 vaccinations and vaccine passports on September 13, 2021 (Nancy Walters / CBC)
Then comes the political turmoil. COVID-19’s policy has become a political issue, dividing the population and fueling guerrilla rhetoric in the midst of a public health emergency.
“Our close competitors and potential opponents are watching,” Giordano said.
“COVID is demonstrating a massive destructive effect. In addition to the devastation of human life in terms of mortality, the devastating effect on infrastructure, economies, stability, and even the political scope in terms of social integrity has been enormous. “
Protesters against restrictions imposed in response to the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) gather near the home of Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker in Swampshot, Massachusetts on May 16, 2020 (Brian Snyder / Reuters)
Mixed opinions on the risk of biological attack
Giordano said he believed there was a “nearly 100% risk” of biological weapons “of some new or new kind” being located somewhere in the world “within the next five years”.
Dan Cachet is less pessimistic. He is a specialist in biological weapons, working with the US Army, the White House Military Service and the US Secret Service.
Kaseta describes the threat as “low but not insignificant.” He said there was no real incentive for a nation state to cause a pandemic because there was a high risk that the virus would spread back to the country that released it, making COVID-19 and other rapidly spreading pathogens unpredictable and unattractive biological weapons.
“Achieving a raging global pandemic that no one can control is nihilism,” Cacheta said. “The whole arc of military technology is towards precise lethality, not indiscriminate mortality.
And conventional weapons such as weapons and bombs have become much cheaper to acquire armies in recent decades, he added.
But Cachetta and Giordano agree that the technology needed for pathogen weapons no longer requires massive laboratory equipment and hundreds of scientists. It is accessible to everyone – including fraudulent actors.
New technology increases the threat
The big problem is gene editing technology. Giordano said it was “literally accessible without counters” and could give anyone with a university education the means to modify existing organisms or create new organisms that are highly contagious.
He cites CRISPR, a gene editing technology available online for less than $ 300. The US Security Project has warned that this technology “may pose a danger to humanity”.
Used in cancer research, CRISPR allows researchers to change organisms at the genetic level by taking DNA from one and moving it to another.
Citrus petri dishes are being prepared for a study of genetic editing at the University of Florida on September 27, 2018 (Federica Narancio / Associated Press)
David Giselson is a pathologist and geneticist at Lund University in Sweden who has worked with the Swedish government on pandemic preparedness. He said the worrying thing about this technology was that it could be used by almost anyone and anywhere – and the results did not have to be complicated to serve as a weapon of terror.
“If you have someone who wants to use this for malicious purposes, then it’s pretty easy to do. And you don’t even have to be a state actor. You can act on your own,” Giselson said.
“It simply came to my notice then [the pathogen doesn’t] it really has to be a very good organism. It can be quite careless. While it causes fear, this new heightened caution about pandemics will provoke a huge pandemic response and perhaps overreaction. “
Giselson, who recently wrote an article on the subject, said he feared that even the slightest leak of biological weapons could create social chaos.
“I can only imagine what will happen next if there is something new, seemingly dangerous, but maybe not so dangerous, and that can have a very pronounced effect,” he said.
COVID-19 puts bioterrorism back on the world’s radar
In April 2020, shortly after the pandemic struck, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that bioterrorists could be inspired by the impact of the pandemic.
“Non-state groups could gain access to virulent strains that could be such a devastation for societies around the world,” he said.
The Canadian Armed Forces operates a biological protection system. The government is in the process of procuring and building an improved one, but it will not be ready until 2030.
CBC News requested an interview with Public Security Minister Marco Mendicino and Defense Minister Anita Anand. They both refused.
A statement issued by Mendicino’s office acknowledged that COVID-19 could “increase the risks associated with bioterrorism, the proliferation of biological weapons and the deliberate use of the disease as a weapon” and said the government was working to tackle it. different fronts. “
The Department of Justice published this image of an anthrax letter sent to then-Senate Majority Leader Tom Dashl in Washington on October 23, 2001. (Reuters)
Real examples of bioterrorism are rare. Shortly after 9/11, letters containing samples of anthrax, a rare infectious disease, were sent to politicians and members of the media, killing five people and infecting 17 others. Anthrax has a high mortality rate (up to 80 percent), but unlike COVID-19, it cannot be transmitted from person to person.
In 1993, a Japanese cult called Aum Shinrikyo tried to kill thousands by spraying anthrax from a roof in Kameido, but to no avail.
All eyes are on Russia
Some have suggested that Russia is preparing to use biological weapons in its war against Ukraine and may have already deployed chemical weapons. The United States and Britain are investigating a report that Russian troops have released a poisonous substance on the besieged city of Mariupol, causing respiratory failure.
Chemical weapons include toxic chemicals that immediately suffocate or burn their victims. Biological weapons are viruses or bacteria that move more slowly and, as a result, are more difficult to detect and retain.
Nadiya Trubchaninova, 70, is crying at the funeral of her 48-year-old son Vadim in Mikulichi Cemetery near Kyiv, Ukraine on April 16, 2022. Vadim was killed by Russian soldiers in Bucha. (Rodrigo Abd / Associated Press)
The White House has warned that Russia could create a pretext for an attack with biological weapons. In February, Moscow accused the United States of hiding biological weapons laboratories in Ukraine that contained deadly pathogens such as anthrax and plague. China backed the accusation shortly afterwards.
“Now that Russia has made these false claims and China has seemingly approved of this propaganda, we must all be looking for Russia to use possible chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine or to set up a false flag operation using them. That’s a clear model, “tweeted Jen Psaki, a White House spokeswoman.
The “clear model” quoted by Psaki is a reference to Russia, which made similar claims before chemical attacks on civilians during the Syrian civil war.
The Global Biological Weapons Treaty has no teeth
The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) is a global, legally binding treaty between 130 countries that has been in force since 1975. It prohibits the development or use of biological weapons. But critics say there are significant shortcomings.
Walter Dorn is an expert in arms control and a professor of defense research at the Royal Military College of Canada. He was part of an expert group in the 1990s that pushed for more teeth at the BWC.
Dorn said the treaty needed a verification protocol in line with the nuclear and chemical weapons treaties – a way to confirm the parties’ compliance. The BWC does not have the means or authority to investigate a threat. The UN Security Council is doing it, but it has never done it.
“I think we both need to be ready to prevent proliferation and also make the contract more effective,” Dorn said. “Even…
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