Dissatisfied with the financing of Vladimir Putin’s military machine through its dependence on Russian energy, surprisingly, some European countries are actually arming the Kremlin. Even after the EU imposed an arms embargo after the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, France and Germany delivered about 300m euros worth of weapons to Moscow. These include “bombs, missiles, torpedoes and explosives” from France, some of which could be used against Ukraine, and cannons and special vehicles for protection from Germany. As many of the goods were described as “dual-use”, they could circumvent the export ban.
The fact that Germany has so generously endowed Putin’s military is particularly irritating because of its reluctance to send weapons to Ukraine. But it is hardly surprising. Germany, under successive chancellors, has made a pernicious misconception, suggesting that closer co-operation with the Kremlin will help curb Putin’s worst impulses. Even now, after the atrocities in Bucha and the promises that Berlin will change, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is shamefully weak in his support for Kyiv.
Emmanuel Macron, for his part, may have stepped up his anti-Putin rhetoric, but is still accused by countries like Poland of trying to appease the Kremlin. Focused on the presidential election campaign, he failed to show leadership.
The conflict is entering a new phase, a bloody Russian attack on Donbass and perhaps even an attempt to seize the entire Ukrainian coast near Odessa. As Boris Johnson said in India yesterday, the West cannot watch passively while Putin continues his attack.
Once the race for French president is over, European leaders will no longer have any excuse to disregard the rest of the Western Alliance. Germany has already ruined its reputation among many Eastern European countries, while Mr Macron’s stated desire for a big deal with the Kremlin was indecent because of Putin’s behavior. The EU was, at best, irrelevant, despite its claims to be a foreign policy superpower.
More optimistic analysts believe that Kyiv has a real chance to repel Russian progress. Although Ukrainian forces remain outnumbered, the provision of modern weapons by NATO members has helped shift the balance more in favor of defenders. But Ukraine’s prospects depend largely on the desire of its friends in the West to continue arms supplies. After arming Putin, it would be moral outrage if Europe failed to do the same for Kyiv now.
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