COVID-19 levels in Ontario may have risen amid the sixth wave of the pandemic, but the effect of long gatherings over the weekend remains to be seen, according to the province’s scientific advisory table.
In a new report Thursday, the group said it was uncertain whether the current plateau in wastewater indicators would remain, followed by an increase after the holidays or if cases would decrease.
Dr Peter Juni, who heads the scientific table, warned that it was still too early to say whether the cases had reached their peak, warning that things could change – especially as Easter weekend approaches.
“We don’t know in which direction this will go … it’s very challenging to make any predictions.”
The latest modeling suggests that Ontario is “well in” the sixth wave of the pandemic, driven by a new, more portable sub-option BA.2 that reduces immunity and eases public health measures. Ontario reported 1,392 people in hospital with COVID-19 on Thursday and 23 other deaths related to the virus. Hospital employment is likely to continue to rise for some time, the group said.
Juni says the latest wastewater figures suggest the number of cases of the virus may have reached a plateau of about 100,000 new daily infections.
(Scientific Advisory Table for COVID-19 in Ontario)
The scientific table says that virus-related infections among healthcare workers are as high as during the Omicron wave, and this, combined with the growing number of hospitalizations, could affect healthcare capacity.
Indoor masking will continue to significantly reduce the risk of getting and spreading the virus, the group added.
The group noted that high levels of infection, along with potentially high levels of hospitalizations, will affect the province’s ability to provide care for non-COVID-19 patients. However, the peak of this wave is likely to be lower than that observed in January against the backdrop of the jump driven by Omicron.
Ontario today51: 38How to protect yourself from COVID for the holiday weekend
Dr. Peter Juni, Scientific Director of the Scientific Advisory Board for COVID 19 in Ontario, joins us to answer your questions about booster vaccines, antivirals, and COVID prevention over the long weekend. 51:38
Health Minister Christine Elliott says the latest modeling of hospital and intensive care employment shows that Ontario can manage the current wave of infections without returning public health measures.
The recommendation comes after Ontario Prime Minister Doug Ford told reporters Thursday that he would be “more than happy” to extend remaining public health restrictions beyond the expected deadline of April 27 if Chief Medical Officer Dr. Kieran Moore recommended this.
- You can read the full report on the scientific table at the bottom of this story.
Asked about the expected modeling of the scientific table at an unrelated press conference on Thursday, Ford said he heard “positive” things about wastewater, but encouraged people to be careful.
“If you have more than 15 people, put on your mask … it doesn’t hurt,” Ford said before the holiday weekend.
“We’ve been through this for two years, that’s common sense.”
(Scientific Advisory Table for COVID-19 in Ontario)
Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist at the University Health Network in Toronto, said it was “great to see” levels of infection that are declining and even declining in most regions in recent wastewater data forecasts.
“The pace of hospitalization also seems to be slowing,” Bogoch tweeted Wednesday.
“It’s still early and there’s a lot of COVID out there, but we can get out of this wave.”
1332 hospitalizations, another 32 deaths were reported
Meanwhile, today’s hospitalizations marked a jump of 1,332 and 1,126 on Wednesday at that time last week.
Of the reported hospitalizations, 177 are patients in intensive care. That’s less than 182 days earlier, but up from 159 a week ago. Eighty-one patients are on ventilators due to the virus.
The province reported another 4,589 cases of COVID-19 through limited PCR tests, with 23,046 tests completed the day before.
The pass rate on Thursday was 18.1, compared to 17.5% on Wednesday.
An additional 23 virus-related deaths increase the total number of deaths in Ontario to 12,606.
The health ministry said it would not update COVID-19 data on its Good Friday and Easter website. Instead, the figures will be published every day.
On Wednesday, select pharmacies across the province were able to start distributing a COVID-19 treatment pill to those with a prescription after the province announced it would expand the distribution of Paxlovid earlier this week.
Ontario also extended the eligibility parameters for Paxlovid for everyone aged 70 and over, people aged 60 and over with less than three doses of COVID-19 vaccine and people aged 18 and over with less than three doses of vaccine and at least one risk factor, such as a chronic medical condition.
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