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An area of disturbed weather off the coast of the Carolinas surprised forecasters by becoming a tropical storm Saturday morning. The National Hurricane Center announced at 5 a.m. Saturday that Tropical Storm Colin was born.
Tropical storm warnings extend just south of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, north through the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
“Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the northeastern coast of South Carolina this morning and will extend northeastward within the warning area along the North Carolina coast this afternoon through Sunday,” the Hurricane Center wrote, as it also warns that there are pockets of heavy rain that could also cause areas of flash flooding in that area.
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The system was barely on the Hurricane Center’s radar until Friday morning. The Hurricane Center’s first public bulletin on the system came at 2:00 PM ET on Friday: “Low pressure forming near Savannah, Georgia. Although significant development of this system is not likely, heavy rain is expected across southeast Georgia and parts of the Carolinas.
In its briefing at 5 a.m. Saturday, the Hurricane Center wrote that the storm developed “quite unexpectedly” as a thunderstorm embedded in the disturbance that organized late Friday into early Saturday.
As of 8 a.m. Saturday, Colin was centered about 25 miles west-southwest of Myrtle Beach. It was a minimal tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and a northeasterly direction of 8 mph. Over the next day, it is expected to continue to the northeast, paralleling the coast of the Carolinas, before eventually retreating further east.
Colin is not projected to strengthen, but it will be an inconvenience to residents and visitors along the Carolina coast. In addition to gusty winds of up to about 40 mph, Collin could produce 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated heavier amounts of up to 4 inches.
The National Weather Service also issued a hazard warning for “dangerous rip currents” along the North Carolina coast.
Good morning E NC! Overnight, Tropical Storm Colin spun along the South King Coast. Colin is forecast to move NE @ 8 mph taking the storm along or just inland from the NC coast today and sunshine. The main impacts will be localized heavy rain, coastal wind gusts up to 40 mph and possible tornadoes. pic.twitter.com/YWzoQeyGMn
— NWS Newport/Morehead (@NWSMoreheadCity) July 2, 2022
Between Friday and Saturday morning, the system produced 2 to 4 inches of rain around Charleston, where the rain moved mostly north and east.
Computer model simulations show that most of Colin’s rain will stay east of its center, over the ocean, but that intermittent, scattered showers are a good bet across northeastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina overnight Saturday into Saturday and into along the North Carolina Outer Banks until around noon Sunday.
By Sunday evening, Colin is expected to be well east of the Mid-Atlantic coast and dissipate.
As the third named storm of the Atlantic season, Colin formed about a month ahead of schedule; the average date of the third named Atlantic storm is August 3. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a significantly busier-than-average hurricane season with 14 to 21 named storms, including six to 10 hurricanes and three to six major (Category 3 or higher hurricanes). The Atlantic season usually peaks in late August and September.
As Colin scrapes the coastal Carolinas, Tropical Storm Bonnie is on its way out of Nicaragua and into the Pacific Ocean. Bonnie made landfall near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border around 11 p.m. ET on Friday, with winds of 50 mph. As it passes through both countries, it is likely to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain and “life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides,” the Hurricane Center predicted.
Bonnie is forecast to become a hurricane over the Pacific but avoid landfall.
Tropical Storm Bonnie is forming on its way to Nicaragua and Costa Rica
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