Russia’s latest achievements in Donbass raise the inevitable question of whether the Kremlin’s indiscriminate tactics there will be a template for future offensives.
With reports of a large number of troops, artillery and missile launchers gathering across the border near the Russian city of Kursk – in an area bordering the Ukrainian province of Sumy – this is an urgent matter.
Although there is much talk of the painfully slow and dull pace of Russia’s recent offensive in Donbass, the speed of territorial gains is not the only indicator.
Russia’s tactics, which shaped the battle of Donbass, also posed a fierce dilemma for Ukraine’s defenders – to hold positions among fast-growing casualties or to withdraw and risk inertia to attackers.
While other parts of the 300-mile front line in eastern Ukraine lack some of the same vulnerabilities that existed around Severodonetsk – which was in the middle of a Ukrainian bulge that Russia exploits – the Kremlin is likely to offer Kyiv the same on any future offensive. difficult choice, trying to expand your ability to react.
Russia’s offensive against Severodonetsk Severodonetsk and Lisichank
Perhaps the first and most pressing question – if and when Russian forces completely take over Severodonetsk – is whether they are then trying to cross the Seversky Donets River after catastrophic attempts to cross elsewhere were directed by deadly Ukrainian artillery.
Whether Russian forces are trying to cross the Seversky Donets River – a natural barrier – in Severodonetsk or elsewhere in Ukraine, Russian forces appear to be preparing for a new push farther north amid evidence that they are regrouping near the Ukrainian city of Izyum. to renew their efforts against Slavyansk, rebuilding a railway bridge near Kupyansk to facilitate the movement of troops and equipment in the area.
What is more difficult to assess is the level of exhaustion inflicted on both sides, and what impact this will have on further offensives and Ukraine’s ability to defend and counterattack.
While the UK Ministry of Defense has suffered much of Russia’s losses during the war – the latest growing casualties among junior officers – Russia’s gains in Donbass seem to tell a different story, at least for now. Growing anecdotal evidence suggests that Ukraine has suffered heavy casualties during recent battles in the east, mainly from shrapnel, and that there have been reports of equipment and supply problems.
What may be true is that despite evidence of fresh Russian preparations, the difficulty of fighting and heavy losses could limit Russia’s ambitions beyond the control of Donbass, the south and its key coastline.
“After nearly a hundred days of war,” wrote Michael Clark of the Royal United Services Institute in the Times earlier this week, “Russia’s offensive in Ukraine is finally starting to look more consistent if it is not yet strategically wise or resilient.” “.
Predicting a protracted war, however, former Australian General Mick Ryan has challenged the idea that Russia or Ukraine is close to running out on a long Twitter topic examining the current military position and likely trajectory.
“In April and early May, after Ukraine’s victory in the Battle of Kyiv, a degree of triumphalism crept into the stories of the war in Ukraine. “But as the Russians have recently shown, by concentrating their forces in smaller regions of Ukraine, they can generate tactical victories,” he said.
“No warring party has demonstrated its ability to strike a strategically decisive blow against the other. Although the Ukrainians demonstrate superiority in global influence, strategy and leadership, the Russians continue to generate combat power to attack them in the east.
“Although Russians and Ukrainians are losing hundreds and if not thousands of people and equipment, none of them are exhausted nations. The Russians have reserves of manpower and equipment in stock. Ukraine has a huge amount of military aid that crosses its borders. “
Despite ongoing Russian shelling around Kharkiv and south around Kherson, where two limited Ukrainian counter-attacks have stopped, Russia’s goal in both areas – according to the Ukrainian General Staff – is to consolidate defense and supply lines and disrupt Ukrainian forces where they have advanced. .
Elsewhere, however, as suggested by the US-based think tank Institute for War Research: “Russia’s progress remains limited and unlikely to accelerate in the near future, especially as Russian forces continue to prioritize attacks on Severodonetsk at the cost of other lines of effort. “
Add Comment