Issued on: 21/12/2022 – 18:38
President Volodymyr Zelensky visits Washington on Wednesday as the US announces it will send Patriot missiles to Ukraine. The announcement appeared to be a response to Ukraine’s fears of a Russian winter offensive — fears that surprised some observers given the damage suffered by the Russian military. But analysts warn that Moscow could take advantage of winter conditions to carry out localized attacks.
The United States is expected to announce it will send Ukraine the world’s most sophisticated air defense technology as part of a new $2 billion arms package, days after repeated Ukrainian claims that Russia is preparing a massive winter offensive.
Russia is planning large-scale infantry attacks, Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Zelensky, told The New York Times on Sunday. “Russia’s political leadership clearly refuses to recognize the tactical defeats that have already occurred and is grasping at any, even the most illusory, chance to change the situation in its favor,” Podolyak said.
It came after Ukrainian army chief General Valery Zaluzhny told The Economist that Moscow was planning a bold new offensive. “The Russians are training about 200,000 new soldiers,” he said. “I have no doubt that they will strike again in Kyiv.”
Such statements are surprising in light of Ukraine’s military successes in recent months; observers such as the Institute for the Study of War have pointed out for weeks that the Russian military is actually strengthening its defensive posture.
Russia “does not have logistical means”
Not only have the Russians suffered setbacks such as the loss of the city of Kherson in November, they are also plagued by chronic equipment shortages. “They obviously don’t have the logistical means to mount a major operation right now,” said Jeff Hawn, a Russian military specialist and foreign fellow at the New Lines Institute, a US geopolitical think tank.
Hence the suspicion that Kyiv is giving overly gloomy forecasts for the coming winter to ensure that Western arms supplies will continue to flow.
Ukraine certainly needs these supplies, said Huseyn Aliyev, an expert on the Ukraine war at the University of Glasgow: “At the moment, the West is mainly sending anti-aircraft to counter the wave of Russian bombing, but Ukraine also needs ground equipment such as tanks and ammunition, amid fierce fighting around the city of Bakhmut [in eastern Ukraine] and Moscow’s potential desire to launch a new offensive.
But there is no point in dismissing Ukrainian warnings of a Russian winter offensive as a mere ploy, said Sim Tak, a military analyst at the conflict monitoring firm Force Analysis: “There is indeed an increase in the movement of troops and equipment to positions near the Russian border.
Tak himself has seen a recent build-up of new armored vehicles and the construction of tents around military bases near the town of Rovenki between Kharkiv and Luhansk, a few kilometers from the Russian border.
“It is possible that the same thing is happening at other military bases along the Russian-Ukrainian border,” Tak pointed out.
This deployment of equipment and new troops may simply be a warning sign — but it may also be “a matter of sending equipment and men to reinforce the defensive lines,” Tak continued.
The idea of a winter offensive also makes sense from a political point of view in Russia. “After the Russian military’s recent setbacks, the Kremlin is looking for scapegoats, and many generals will quickly want to achieve some sort of military success to prove that they are still useful,” Hawn said.
According to some analysts, this will be even more urgent as figures on the fringes of the official Russian military establishment – such as mercenary group boss Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov – appear to be trying to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin that they can do better than the current general staff.
General Winter
Hawn argued that this military would like to go on the offensive as soon as possible because “they know that Ukraine’s technological advantage, provided by Western support, will only increase as the supply of military equipment from Russia runs out.”
And all analysts interviewed by FRANCE 24 agree that the Russian army will suffer more from the winter than the Ukrainian forces. “The Ukrainians have more modern and reliable equipment, while the Russians don’t have enough food to last long on the front line,” noted Tak.
This is a key reason, Tak argues, why Russia is likely to launch a multi-pronged winter offensive to retake a few towns and villages, as opposed to a major front-wide attack. Russian troops would prefer to spend the winter in cities rather than in makeshift camps set up in the open. In light of this, the battle for Bahmut shows what we should expect, Tak concluded. “The city is not just a gateway to the more strategic goals of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk; it could also be useful as a rear base for Russian forces in the winter.
© Graphic Studio France Médias Monde
This article has been translated from the original French.
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