Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke ahead of peace talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations at the Dolmabahce presidential office in Istanbul, Turkey on March 29, 2022.
Arda Kuchukkaya | Anatolian Agency Getty Images
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has doubled his opposition to Sweden and Finland joining the NATO alliance, a move that would be historic for both Scandinavian countries following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“We will not say ‘yes’ to these.” [countries] who are imposing sanctions on Turkey to join NATO’s security organization, “Erdogan told a news conference late Monday. He was referring to the cessation of arms sales from Sweden to Turkey in 2019 due to its military activities in Syria.
The Swedish Foreign Ministry said on Monday that it plans to send senior officials from both Sweden and Finland to the Turkish capital, Ankara, to respond to Erdogan’s objections. But the Turkish leader essentially said they would waste their time.
“Will they come to convince us?” I’m sorry, but they shouldn’t bother, “Erdogan said. He added that the accession of the two countries would make NATO “a place where representatives of terrorist organizations are concentrated”.
The Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to a request from CNBC for comment, stating that it “applies UN sanctions as well as EU sanctions against terrorism against any person or entity … in accordance with EU law” and that “the EU and Turkey holds regular dialogue on counter-terrorism, “CNBC also asked the Swedish government for comment.
Sweden and Finland have granted asylum to members of the Kurdish separatist organization PKK, which Turkey classifies as a terrorist organization and which has carried out attacks in Turkey. The two countries also supported and held high-level meetings with members of the YPG, a branch of the PKK in Syria, credited with helping ISIS win and fight Turkish forces.
Why is this so important?
Sweden and Finland are on the verge of applying for NATO membership after the governments of the two countries expressed their support for the move to abandon their traditional positions of non-alignment between the alliance and Russia.
This will expand the influence and territory of the Western defense organization and make a dramatic statement to repel Russia and has already provoked anger and threats from Moscow. Sweden and Finland are members of the EU, but not of NATO, which has an 830-mile border with Russia.
“There seems to be a major crisis in Turkey-West relations over Finland and Sweden’s NATO bid.
Timothy Ash
Emerging Markets Strategist, Bluebay Asset Management
The two countries that join NATO will give Moscow “more officially registered opponents”, its former president and senior security official Dmitry Medvedev warned in mid-April.
But raising NATO as a new member requires the consensual approval of all existing members.
As NATO leadership welcomes the news, suggesting candidates could be accepted quickly, one of the most militarily powerful members is standing in the way: Turkey.
Turkey, which joined the alliance in 1952, is a key player in NATO and boasts the second-largest army in the 30-nation bloc after the United States.
For both Sweden and Finland, the decision to apply for NATO membership is monumental and was prompted by Russia’s brutal invasion of neighboring Ukraine, which itself had ambitions to join NATO. It was only after the invasion that public opinion in both countries rose in favor of joining the 73-year-old defense union.
“The stakes are high now,” said Timothy Ash, an emerging markets strategist at Bluebay Asset Management, in a note Tuesday. “There seems to be a major crisis in Turkey-West relations over Finland and Sweden’s NATO bid.
“Other NATO members will be angry with Turkey, given the now clear and current threat to Europe posed by Putin in Ukraine,” Ash added. “Turkey will be seen as an unreliable partner. This will leave even worse blood / faith between the two countries – all remnants of Turkey’s EU bid will disappear. “
Turkey’s highly strategic air base, Incirlik, is home to 50 of America’s tactical nuclear weapons, which some US officials have suggested were removed due to growing tensions with Washington and Ankara in recent years. This tension focused in part on Erdogan’s warming ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his controversial decision to buy Russia’s S-400 air defense system, which led to its expulsion from NATO’s F-35 program.
While Turkey has backed Ukraine by sending it weapons, including its deadly Bayraktar drones, and trying to mediate between Moscow and Kyiv, it has so far refused to join its NATO allies in sanctioning Russia.
Only difficult conversations?
Some analysts are skeptical of Erdogan’s tough talks, convinced that he will not actually block NATO membership bids – rather, they predict that he will simply use his country’s leverage to make concessions and increase his own. its declining popularity at home.
“Despite its objections, Ankara will not block NATO entry,” analysts at the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group wrote in a research note late Monday.
“Erdogan is probably looking for concessions to give the green light to NATO enlargement, mainly from Sweden. These could include easing Stockholm’s bilateral arms embargo against Turkey and some recognition of the PKK as a terrorist organization in order to limit its fundraising and recruitment activities, “the note said.
Over the weekend, Erdogan’s top foreign policy adviser, Ibrahim Kalin, reassured his allies by saying in an interview with Reuters: “We are not closing the door. Sweden and Finland.
Arms deals are likely to play an important role in any negotiations. The Biden administration is currently seeking congressional approval to finalize the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, for which Ankara is likely to seek guarantees.
But a more urgent reason behind Erdogan’s edge may be the need to boost his declining popularity in the country amid inflation and the cost of living crisis. Public opinion polls in Turkey have reached their lowest level in years.
Turkish inflation reached a staggering 70% in April, largely due to Erdogan’s long-running refusal to raise interest rates while burning foreign exchange reserves. The country of 84 million people has been hit hard by rising global prices for energy and basic commodities, with fuel and agricultural prices skyrocketing, thanks in part to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“There are two things that unite the nation in Turkey,” Ash wrote. “Opposition to the PKK and Perceived Western Hypocrisy.”
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