Labor leaders have warned the party that it is unlikely to make a convincing victory story after local elections next week, calling the Tories’ claims of 750 losses “ridiculous” and suggesting Labor may even lose seats on the Red Wall.
Shadow cabinet ministers have warned that the party is on “thin ice” when it comes to its lead in polls. This week, Shadow Equalization Secretary Lisa Nandi warned Labor leader Keira Starmer that the party should shift its focus from attacking the prime minister over Partygate to talks about the cost of living crisis.
Following Nandi’s warning, the Labor leader said on Tuesday that he had made the crisis a focus during the local elections. Starmer told reporters at Stevenage: “When we started the campaign, we had a laser focus on the cost of living and we kept it that way all the time.
Labor aides are preparing a post-election story that will compare the party’s voter turnout with a reading of how many seats the party can win in the constituency. The current election cycle is usually the most favorable for Labor, which already holds 50% of the seats. In practice, this will mean that it is more difficult to announce a significant increase in seats.
“This will be a very random set of elections in which the story of the night is not immediately clear,” said a senior Labor source. “There will be some areas, including the places we lost in 2019, where it will be clear that we have a lot more work to do.
Separately, the share of votes will be monitored to see how it can turn a profit in places in Westminster. Those under close scrutiny include Bury, where all seats are for election and where the Tories were elected by a small margin – although one MP, Christian Wakeford, ran away from Labor in January. Birmingham Northfield is another area where Labor hopes to make a profit.
Party leaders have privately rejected the adoption of London councils such as Westminster and Wandsworth, but hope to make progress in Barnett. The gains there would allow Starmer to tell the story of how the party responded to the anti-Semitism crisis, seen as a key factor in the party’s poor performance in northwest London under former leader Jeremy Corbyn in 2018.
Although most of the parliamentary Labor Party was encouraged by Starmer’s progress as the Tories fought scandals, doubts remain about the leader’s courage, even in the shadowy front.
“There are a lot of people who whispered loudly about Cair after the conference. It doesn’t take much to panic the Labor Party, “said a shadow minister. “Overall, I think we’re on the right track, but it will be easy for Tori to understand the story after May 5th, and I hope that doesn’t get us in a hurry.”
Another shadow minister said the poll leadership was “built on sand” and that Starmer had to prove he could do more than just dirty scandals. “It simply came to our notice then. The material is dry. Policies are scattered. “I think we need to start making a bigger impression on a much wider range of stories,” they said.
“I think it was especially bad around the conference, when there was chaos in the front yards and yet everyone stuck to their prepared speeches. It’s better now that there are better front benches, but I still don’t see a sign that there’s a big enough change in communications. “
Although Starmer has strengthened his position with lawmakers, former shadow minister Barry Gardiner has been approached by colleagues over whether he could be a future candidate for unity. “The left doesn’t really have anyone alone. “I’m not sure Richard Bergon would even get to the polls,” said one backpacker.
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Starmer’s view of uncompromising leftism is seen by most supporters as an electoral asset, but some senior lawmakers fear it could backfire if Labor forms a minority government in the future, leaving them dependent on iron party discipline.
A shadow cabinet minister said he believed Starmer should spend more time overcoming the cost of living crisis and less time “fighting the battles of the past”.
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