This week, the Charles Schwab Challenge has become a microcosm for 2022: Scotty Scheffler is leading and everyone else is chasing him. Scheffler will win his fifth win of the year on Sunday at the Colonial Country Club after shooting a 2-under 68 on Saturday, giving him a two-shot lead over Brendan Todd and Scott Stallings.
It didn’t look like that most of the day. Scheffler started in cold blood with 8- and 6-foot steam shots on the first two holes and fired a steady pair of 35 in front before rolling back. He played the first two of this country and closed with another in the last to secure a place in the final pair on Sunday afternoon.
While this is not uncommon for Scheffler this season, it is a different experience than he has traditionally had on this golf course. Colonial is not necessarily specifically designed for the reigning Masters champion – he failed to finish in the top 50 in two starts here – but his lead is not accidental. Scheffler leads the field from tee to green, and while he has performed well so far, it has not been a blanket for all time in the first three rounds. In other words, this lead is sustained on Sunday, given the difference between Scheffler and the relatively average pursuit package, and how wonderfully he hits the golf ball.
Let’s take a closer look at what is at stake on Sunday with Scheffler at Fort Worth as he tries to continue what has so far been an absolutely dream season.
The leader
1. Scotty Scheffler (-11): Scheffler was out of the talk for two short days in the Southern Hills a week ago when he missed the PGA Championship cut, but other than that note, he totally owned the season. His last two months have been almost comical. It was followed by a Phoenix Open victory with the Genesis Invitational T7 and another Arnold Palmer Invitational victory. He finished the T55 in The Players before two more victories in the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play and, of course, the Masters. His T15 at AT&T Byron Nelson felt like a complete failure, which should show you the level at which he plays. Throw another win on Sunday and the career heater suddenly becomes one of the great seasons of the last four decades.
In addition, if he takes the first prize of $ 1.5 million, it will be the second richest season in the history of the PGA Tour after the 2014-15 season of Jordan Spit, in which he won just over $ 12 million. Note also: there are three months left until the end of the season.
Other contenders
T2. Scott Stallings, Brendan Todd (-9)
4. Harold Warner III (-8)
T5. John Hu, Cam Davis, Chris Kirk, Patrick Reed (-7)
As I said, the persecution package is not elite. Each of these guys is capable of winning a PGA Tour event, of course, but none of them will put much fear into Scheffler. Todd actually shot the round of the day on Saturday with two shots over the rest of the field and inflicted all his damage on the front nine on the field. If nothing else, this proved that there is a number for players to shoot, but the chances of one of the golfers at the top of the board doing so while catching Scheffler are not great. Data Golf gives Scheffler a 55% chance of winning this tournament.
Bribes … again
Mito Pereira was the tragic figure from last week. He doubled the last hole in the PGA Championship when the money would win it and the gods would put it in the playoffs. However, Pereira did quite well with everything after that, which won him many fans in the future and now they have the opportunity to take out their man on Sunday. Pereira is five behind Scheffler, but only three seconds away, as he will try to do with this ranking what Justin Thomas did with him a week ago: go back and win.
Updated odds and choices
Here’s a look at the new odds after 54 holes, via the Caesars Sportsbook.
- Scotty Scheffler: -140
- Brendan Todd: 7-1
- Scott Staling: 9-1
- Harold Warner III: 10-1
- Patrick Reed: 22-1
- Chris Kirk: 22-1
- Cam Davis: 35-1
It’s hard to know what to do with this one. Scheffler’s number is not great, but I am absolutely convinced that he will win the tournament and I do not really trust the guys behind him unless you double their numbers. I figured I’d look at Reed or Kirk at 22-1 or Cam Davis at 35-1 and see if it goes as it did last Sunday (no, but it’s probably the game here).
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