Who won the election debate in Ontario? Four political observers weigh

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Randall Denley, Brigitte Pelerin, Shaci Curl and Christina Spencer talk about winners, losers, surprises and disappointments.

Publication date:

May 16, 2022 • 57 minutes ago • 5 minutes of reading • Join the conversation The four main party leaders of the province of Ontario met on Monday night. Above, from left to right: Andrea Horvat of the NDP; The leader of the computer, Doug Ford. Bottom, left to right: Liberal leader Stephen Del Duca; Green leader Mike Schreiner. jpg

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As Ontario’s four main party leaders discussed the issue Monday before the province’s June 2 election, Citizen asked four longtime political observers to evaluate the outcome. Randall Denley is a political commentator from Ottawa, author and former computer candidate. Brigitte Pelerin is a local columnist and author. Shachi Kurl is president of the Angus Reed Institute, a non-partisan public opinion research foundation. Christina Spencer is the editor of Ottawa Citizen’s editorial pages. Here are their thoughts:

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Was there a winner? Do you think that one (or more) of the leaders moved votes with their performance?

Shachi Kurl: By default, Conservative leader Doug Ford has won. A very experienced leader (Andrea Horvat of the NDP) and a competent, budding leader (Stephen Del Duca of the Liberals) had ample opportunity to justify clearly and concisely why Ontario residents should fire this government or even just say the word. I heard a mention from Horvat that Ford would not get a new term, but overall the attacks on Ford did not remain. He was seldom on the defensive; we didn’t see him sweating. The others just didn’t push him hard enough. And that may not be enough to convince Ontario residents it’s time for a change.

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Brigitte Pelerin: For once, yes! The clear winner was Green Party leader Mike Schreiner, who is actually talking to voters. What concept, right? He was well-prepared, confident, and not nasty or too personal. Given that he is the only Green MP, it is fair to say that the party has a lot to gain. He was the only one who had important things to say about health – including that we need to make sure that mental health is health and that the greatest stress for the health system is people living in poverty.

Randall Denley: Ford and Del Duca got along well and got what they needed. Ford was well prepared with facts and figures to support his record; met expectations; and did so without relying too much on his notes. Del Duca was mostly calm and sensible, although his constant attacks on the private sector were indicative. It was extremely important for the Liberal leader to be a better choice than Andrea Horvat of the NDP. He did it.

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Christina Spencer: I didn’t see a clear winner, but I did see a loser: Andrea Horvat. It wasn’t entirely her fault. It had two tasks: to try to unbalance (and hopefully break down) personal computers, but also to ensure that it would stand up to the rising liberals. She was sandwiched between these imperatives, trying to attack both Ford and Del Duca. Turning to both, she actually lost ground. Is she fighting against the current PC government or the liberal one from before 2018? Sometimes it was hard to tell.

Ontario Party Leader Doug Ford speaks while Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horvat watches during the Ontario Party Leaders’ Debate in Toronto, Monday, May 16, 2022. Photo: Frank Gunn / THE CANADIAN PRESS

Are you surprised by what the leaders have said or done?

Pelerin: A Croat from the NDP says it is not good for young people to live at home with their parents. This is not the winning game she thinks it is. I am amazed that she thinks it is a good idea to suggest that several generations of households are something to be avoided. Many people choose these arrangements for whatever reason makes sense to them. It was a huge unforced mistake.

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Kurl: We saw more fire from Horvat than I expected. But she will need more than that.

Spencer: No surprises. Everyone seemed right about the brand. I laughed when Horvath, attacking Del Duca’s role in the former Liberal cabinet, asked where he was when decisions were made: “Have you had coffee?” to cram a lot.

Denley: Unfortunately not. Horvat in particular was so predictable. She can’t stop talking about Ford and his “friends” and the cuts she imagines happened. Doesn’t she know that the line of attack of “friends” is both tired and ineffective? Add this to the constant conversations about others and you will get a bad night for the NDP leader.

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Ontario Liberal Party leader Stephen Del Duca speaks during the Ontario Party Leaders’ Debate in Toronto, Monday, May 16, 2022. Photo: Frank Gunn / THE CANADIAN PRESS

What disappointed you?

Pelerin: I don’t understand why Horvat was so unprepared. She couldn’t get through her one-minute introductory speech without stumbling over her tongue, and she actually sounded unstable all the time. It didn’t feel like she was in control of her materials at all, even the part that profits were bad from long-term care. In theory, the NDP could win a lot in this election from voters who want to oust Doug Ford but don’t want someone from the old Kathleen Winn government in office. Why wasn’t she better prepared to take advantage of this situation?

Spencer: I was surprised that COVID-19 didn’t make its way to the debate halfway through (when the moderators asked about it, after a health discussion). The pandemic has determined the actions of every government in the country for more than two years. I also found the lack of serious discussion on the environment disappointing. And as someone who does not automatically blame business or the private sector for the world’s woes, I was disappointed that there were so few honest discussions about where wealth came from in this province.

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Denley: I was surprised by Green leader Mike Schreiner. He did little to show why progressive voters should choose his party over the NDP or the Liberals. All three party leaders have essentially the same platform and the same lines of attack. I expected more from Schreiner.

Which topic or topic provoked the discussion that may be most useful to voters?

Cape: Healthcare is crucial for voters. For politicians, this is just a topic of conversation. This is something they throw mud at each other. This is indecent. I admit that it is not very useful to know that your politicians are detached from what is most important to you. But this is a hell of an attempt to learn.

Denley: Healthcare. Not because the discussion offered new insights, but because it did not. For the Liberals, the NDP and the Greens, the biggest and most important point is that no part of health care should be provided by the private sector. Okay, but health care in Ontario has always had a big private sector component, starting with every doctor at a profit. Putting ideology before results will not make healthcare better.

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Spencer: Probably the most rewarding part of the debate was giving voters a closer look at Del Duca, the new man on stage. They may or may not like what they have heard from him, but they need to make a comparison between Ford, Croatia and Del Duca on equal terms, and they may find it easier to make their choice on election day.

Kurl: Ultimately, Ontario residents will have to decide if they are so angry with Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives that they want change. And then they will have to decide if there is a leader and party that they like more. And then, if they feel motivated enough to act. A little of what was said would change the opinion of the unresolved or would motivate the ambivalent.

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