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One day last month, Mike Pence secretly huddled with some of Michigan’s best donors, including the royal DeVos family, as he unveiled his vision for the Republican Party before flying to Georgia to campaign against former President Donald Trump’s election. the governor.
Tom Cotton, a Republican senator from Arkansas, gave a lengthy PowerPoint presentation on how previous presidential nominations had failed – and showed it to donors and others during meetings on how to run a successful campaign.
Meanwhile, advisers and allies to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis have discussed margins for his re-election in 2022, which will help him run for president in 2024 – in order to bridge the three percentage point gap that separates Trump and the president. Biden able in 2020
Remaining months before the midterm elections, the shadow campaign for the Republican nomination in 2024 is under way, with at least 15 potential candidates traveling around the country, making plans, clashing with donors or testing messages at various levels of preparation. The four-year-old circus, described by more than 20 people with direct knowledge who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private machinations, was launched despite public hints from Trump that he also planned to join the fight “for the third time.”
Interviews with more than a dozen GOP operatives show that it is not clearing the ground and a number of candidates plan to take it from different angles.
“They will all fight against him,” said Tony Fabrizio, Trump’s longtime sociologist. “If the former vice president is running, what does that say about the loyalty argument?”
Some candidates and their teams have made it clear that they plan to campaign to move the party beyond Trump, who continues to dominate the early election, while the vast majority simply move forward without addressing the issue of Trump and the public. some cases continue to praise him. They were fueled by growing concerns among Republican donors with deep pockets that another Trump nomination – especially a pre-interim announcement – would help Democrats.
At least six senators have already appeared in Iowa or New Hampshire, joining former advisers and Trump-appointed councilors such as Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former UN Ambassador Nicki Haley. Nine potential candidates, including former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, spoke at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, outlining their vision for the party’s future, along with Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), A prominent critic. Trump with a national profile, scheduled to speak there on June 29. In particular, Pompeo was aggressive towards working donors and operatives, asking many what he should do to win the nomination. Pompeo has told others he will run against Trump, although he has not made a final decision, say people who have spoken to him.
“They’re working hard on that, some more than others,” said Ron Kaufman, a member of the Massachusetts Republican National Committee who had a selection of potential candidates at his home in March as part of a fundraiser for the New Hampshire party. In addition to Cotton, Senator Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), Tim Scott (RS.C.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) Spoke at the event.
“There are a lot of good people who think about it and want to be president,” said Kaufman, who has run in the 1980 presidential campaign. years. “
Trump and his allies have begun preparing for a competition attack, as several of Trump’s closest advisers continue to urge him not to campaign before the midterm elections, fearing it will help Democrats’ efforts the Senate and Congressional campaigns around the division. former president.
“I would be very surprised if they run,” Trump said in an interview earlier this year. But he began asking advisers how he should attack some of his former cabinet members and allies, as well as candidates he had previously approved. DeSantis is creating particular problems, two advisers said, as he has won such favor with Trump’s base.
Internal polls by the Club for Growth and other private polls show that Trump is easily winning the primary election right now in many early states, although such polls have historically been a poor predictor of the outcome in two years.
“I will be shocked if he doesn’t run away. All studies show that he will be the leader of a mile in the country. “The day Trump made it clear he was going to run – it would be a mountain to climb to defeat him,” said Sen. Lindsay O. Graham (RS.C.), a frequent confidant. “If it is a political election, he is in good shape. His main goal is to lose. “
Many potential candidates disagree, citing a long history of early favorites for dissenting presidential nominations. Former Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton was not a candidate in some of the 1990 Democratic nominations. In June 2006, Gallup found that 36% of pro-democracy voters supported the then Sen. Hillary Clinton (DN.Y.) for the 2008 nomination, followed by 16 percent for former Vice President Al Gore. The eventual winner in both the nomination and the presidency, Barack Obama, has not yet been evaluated.
The same pattern haunts Republicans. In June 2006, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani led the Gallup Republican field with 29 percent support from Republican voters. He would end the primary two years later without winning a single delegate. The then governor of Wisconsin, Scott Walker, who was polled to hear the top of the group in 2015, dropped out two months after announcing his candidacy.
In Iowa, which is expected to host the first Republican meeting in 2024, politically powerful brokers such as Bob Vander Plaats, president of the Family Leader group, a Christian conservative group, tell people that even if Trump runs, there is a big a chance for a contested campaign.
“If you turn to Trump on the left – let’s say Mitt Romney’s approach – I don’t think it will ever work,” he said. “If you were targeting Trump on the right – more like Pence or Pompeo, or Ted Cruz, or DeSantis – then I think people would like to listen.
After visits to Pence and Pompeo in recent months, the family leader invited Fox News presenter Tucker Carlson to speak at its annual conference in July.
In addition to growing competition for candidates, Trump is facing declining influence among the high-dollar Republican donor community that backed his 2020 campaign, as many fear the risks of another Trump candidacy, according to many people familiar with the case. discussions. In talks with RNC chairman Ron McDaniel and others, some of the party’s leading donors have suggested that the party should move forward, according to the people.
“Republicans think he’s downplaying and want someone else,” said a councilor close to major Republican donors. “But people think they need to calm him down. We are in a phase of calm. “
Some activists have complained in private that he will not talk so much about inflation, gas prices and other topics that he considers the strongest lines of attack against Biden. Christie, who is looking to run, said people are increasingly talking about issues other than Trump’s favorite topic: his false allegations of stolen elections in 2020.
“As I travel around the country campaigning for other Republican candidates, there is growing doubt and disinterest in the president’s allegations that the 2020 election was stolen. They take care of the problems that affect them, “Christie said in an interview.
Pence sees South Carolina as the key to his campaign and has traveled extensively to meet with donors and operatives in the state. He also met with some of the party’s richest donors and flew to Israel on the plane of megadonor Miriam Adelson. Allies await announcement for spring 2023
“At some point early next year, they will come out and try to figure out where their calling is and where they are led to serve,” said Mark Short, his longtime chief of staff, referring to Pence and his wife, Karen. “It will not be based on any other person.”
But some donors and even allies have questioned whether Pence – who rejected Trump’s demands to try to cancel the 2020 election – could win power against his former boss, and he has personally and publicly shown little desire to attack Trump.
DeSantis is quietly building his fundraising networks as he grabs national titles for his challenges to the Biden administration and his focus on cultural warfare. Without mentioning Trump, he told donors, “No one’s nomination is inevitable,” according to the person to whom his comments were passed.
Winning Trump’s 2020 margin of three percentage points in Florida has become a key goal of the campaign, according to three people familiar with the talks. They said DeSantis’ wife, Casey, a former TV presenter and a small group of confidants, wanted him to run for president. The couple believes the governor’s skills are uniquely suited to the current political climate and are afraid to wait six years for the tides to change. DeSantis has not indicated whether he will postpone the campaign if Trump runs.
A spokesman for the DeSantis re-election campaign, David Abrams, said the governor was “focused on winning a strong re-election this fall in Florida because it’s the best thing for Florida’s future.” He called the proposals for other motives “nonsense”.
Behind the scenes, DeSantis and his team believe they are ahead of Trump with the party’s main donors, according to an ally in contact with the governor. A former aide said DeSantis spoke …
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