Crispin Colvin has spent the last few weeks watching some of his crops die of thirst.
The recent lack of rainfall in southwestern Ontario means Colvin’s farm will yield less corn than usual this harvest season, and that means a lot less income — and a lot more worry — for farmers like him. who depend on crops as their main source of income.
“It’s stressful to say the least,” says Colvin, who raises soybeans, corn and hay for cattle in Thorndale, Ont.
“But there’s not much you can do when it’s dry conditions like these.”
Many farmers in southwestern Ontario are currently dealing with the impact of unusually dry conditions in June and July so far, a situation that is causing crops to suffer and lower their expected yield.
Colvin, who is also executive director of the Ontario Federation of Agriculture, says less rain and subsequently lower yields will create a domino effect down the food chain, creating less produce and driving up prices.
“If we’re getting less produce, there’s less to process, there’s less to sell … and what that in turn does is affect the price you’re going to pay at the supermarket for the produce,” says Colvin . “I want consumers to have what they want, what they expect, but I can’t do it without rain.”
Agriculture Canada’s Canadian Drought Watch Map, which looks at the severity of drought conditions across the country, shows “abnormally dry” conditions in Chatham-Kent in southwestern Ontario as far as Vaughan, north of Toronto.
Trevor Hadwen, an agro-climate specialist with the federal department, says while some crops can do well in dry conditions, others like corn and soybeans don’t do well during the flowering period.
“We need some moisture, we need some wind and milder temperatures to get us through this critical phase in the farming season for corn growers,” he says.
James Herle, who farms near Waterloo, Ont., said the little rain that fell early Monday was probably the most rain in the area in two months, but growers would need three or four times that to help some crops at this stage.
“I see a lot of crops, especially corn and soybeans, that really look like they’re suffering and some of them are past the point of no return,” says Herle, who grows a variety of fresh vegetables as well as some soybeans.
“There’s definitely a trickle-down effect in terms of what that looks like for the consumer. That should lead to some increased costs as less supply comes to market.”
According to a monthly report from the University of Waterloo weather station, half of June’s precipitation fell in the first week of the month, followed by nearly two weeks without rain.
The month saw total rainfall of just 48.6mm, well below the long-term average of 82.4mm for this time of year, making it the region’s driest June in 15 years, the report said.
Frank Seglenieks, the station’s co-ordinator, says that in the first 15 days of July there was only about 4 mm of rain, continuing the pattern of dry conditions seen in the previous month.
“Almost all of southern Ontario has had to deal with this drought,” says Seglenieks, adding that similar conditions are seen in the region every 20 years on average.
The forecast shows the possibility of wetter conditions in late July and early August, Seglenieks said, but questions remain about how much rain it will bring and whether it will be widespread enough to counteract the water deficit seen in recent months.
Higher precipitation levels in the spring and winter and drier conditions in the summer are consistent with what changing climate patterns show for this part of the country, he says.
“It’s impossible to say that one particular season, one particular month, one particular day is 100 percent caused by climate change,” he says. “But what we saw is certainly within the narrative of what we would expect to see in a future climate.”
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