An expired draft opinion of the Supreme Court shows that the country’s highest court is on the verge of overturning the important 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling, which guarantees the federal right to abortion.
In its absence, states hostile to abortion would be free to ban or severely restrict the procedure. That would leave entire regions of the country without an abortion clinic within a day’s drive, changing the geography of access to abortion in America with a seismic change.
Abortion will not be available in large parts of the country
More than half of the United States would be sure or likely to ban abortion if the Supreme Court overturned Rowe v. Wade. Some states already have book abortion bans that will no longer be blocked by Rowe v. Wade, while others have “trigger laws” that will go into effect if the federal government no longer protects reproductive rights.
When those states ban abortions, about a quarter of the country’s abortion clinics will close – mostly in states where clinics are few.
Map showing how far people will have to travel to the nearest abortion clinic if Roe v Wade is overturned
In Cameron County, in southern Texas, a woman will have to travel to a clinic more than 680 miles away in New Mexico. On the winding roads of rural America, it’s more than 800 miles: 12 hours by car.
Women in some states will have to travel more than 500 miles to the nearest abortion clinic
A 2017 study found that half of women in the United States live within 11 miles (17 km) of an abortion clinic, but about 20% of them have to travel 43 miles (68 km). Abortion bans in half of the United States would dramatically increase travel time, especially in the south, where much of the neighboring states are likely to ban abortions.
Map
But traveling to another state for abortion may not even be an option. People who seek abortion are disproportionately likely to have low incomes and most already have children. Experts also warn that states could pass laws to ban women from traveling outside the state to seek abortion services.
Abortion is legally protected in some states, but it will not stop additional restrictions or prohibitions
Several states have legal protection for abortion, either in their constitutions or as statutes. Although existing abortion laws may not begin immediately after Rowe and Wade’s repeal, Republicans in some of those states are expected to push for an abortion ban.
Map of state laws that will apply if Rowe v. Wade is repealed
In Kansas, for example, the constitution protects a woman’s right of access to abortion, but a referendum in August will determine whether that protection will be removed. A survey earlier this year found that more than 60% of Kanzans oppose abortion being completely illegal. But the referendum is part of the primary election and primary voters tend to be more conservative.
The Washington Post, meanwhile, reports that Republican senators have discussed federal legislation banning abortion after six weeks, which supporters have called “heartbeat” bills. Many women do not know they are pregnant until six weeks later, and a 2018 study found that younger women, women of color, and women without higher education are more likely to find out after the seven-week limit.
Together, these new restrictions could further jeopardize redress in countries that support abortion rights.
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