The size and scope of the result came as a shock to even the most optimistic Democrats. Not only did voters reject a proposed constitutional amendment that would have opened the door to strict abortion laws in the Republican state, but they did so in huge numbers, reducing turnout in more recent primaries and signaling that the issue could motivate even Republican-leaning voters in a state former President Donald Trump won by 15 points in 2020. The political impact of what happened in Kansas will be felt most directly in November’s midterm elections — especially in the races for governor and attorney general after the Supreme Council of The US Court overturned Roe v. Wade, throwing the issue of abortion up to the states. The June ruling led to bans on the procedure in several states, while opening the door to more restrictions in others. At least four other states will vote on abortion-related measures this November, but Democratic strategists are looking to the Kansas results to extrapolate lessons for states that won’t put abortion on the ballot.
“As the first state to vote on abortion rights since the fall of Roe v. Wade, Kansas is a model on the way to restoring reproductive rights nationwide through direct democracy,” said Alexis McGill Johnson, president of Planned Parenthood. “We know that Kansas will not be our last fight or our last victory.
Democrats and Republicans acknowledged Wednesday that the outcome in Kansas, though limited to one state, could change how each party approaches the midterm elections. Democrats, buoyed by the polls and Kansas results, are likely to try to make abortion a central issue in key races, hoping to tie their Republican opponents to support for stricter abortion laws.
Republicans will also continue to be cautious on the issue, largely ignoring their party’s longtime desire to tighten abortion laws across the country and instead hoping to keep the focus on the economy.
“I think our Republican candidates will continue to focus on the issues that are most important to voters, and every poll continues to say those are rising costs and the economy,” said a Republican operative working on the House races. the representatives.
A GOP operative working on the Senate races added, “The midterm elections are not going to happen in a vacuum, and there are other issues that voters are considering when they go to the polls in the fall. It’s not going to be an up-or-down vote on a single issue.”
Democrats were more hopeful that the Kansas result was a positive sign for the party’s midterm outlook, amid low approval ratings for President Joe Biden and rising inflation and other economic concerns.
“We already knew that a majority of Americans support abortion rights, but last night’s results in Kansas showed us that this is also a motivating factor for voters,” said Xochitl Hinojosa, a Democratic operative and managing director of the progressive consulting firm Bully Pulpit Interactive . “We’re likely to see more Democratic candidates learn from Kansas and lean into the threat and urgency of statewide abortion bans and start communicating that directly to voters.”
But Tuesday’s national results also underscored the complicated relationship between voters and abortion. While Kansas voters overwhelmingly rejected the abortion amendment, Republican primary voters in places like Arizona, Michigan and Missouri also nominated candidates for governor, U.S. senator and other top positions who support stricter abortion restrictions.
Republicans are looking for a foundation on the abortion issue
Since the Supreme Court’s decision in June, many Republicans have been trying to walk a fine line on abortion.
Pennsylvania gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano is one of the clearest examples. While running in the GOP primary, Mastriano called abortion his “No. 1 issue.” Since winning the nomination, he has been less assertive, instead arguing that it is “the people of Pennsylvania” who will decide the future of abortion in the state. In a statement after the ruling in June, Mastriano — a state senator who supported and sponsored strict anti-abortion legislation — said Republicans “must not distract from the key issues facing Pennsylvania families.”
And Mastriano is not alone as Republicans across the country try to keep the focus on skyrocketing inflation and voters’ sense of economic malaise instead of more controversial issues like abortion.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee released a memo following the May leak of a draft opinion that foreshadowed the Supreme Court’s eventual decision, calling on candidates to “be compassionate, consensus-building on abortion” and portray themselves as willing to “listen” to people who disagree. them on the matter.
An operative Republican who works on Senate campaigns said that while the Kansas results “reflect that there is a lot more nuance to abortion politics than most people realize,” the NRSC advises candidates to “decide how much they want to talk about the issue,” but to know that “voters want to talk about the issues that affect their lives every day,” like the economy.
Some Republicans also believe the focus on abortion would allow Republicans to attack Democrats who oppose restrictions on the procedure.
“You have to pressure Democrats without restraint,” said Matt Gorman, a Republican strategist who was the Republican National Committee’s chief spokesman for the 2018 campaign, noting his party’s attempts to attack Pennsylvania Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman for this , that he said no when asked if there were “any restrictions on abortion that you think are appropriate?”
Polls show the Roe decision is generally unpopular
Polls consistently show that the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade is generally unpopular and that a majority of Americans support protecting abortion rights. A CNN poll released in late July found that nearly two-thirds of Americans disapprove of the Supreme Court decision, including 55 percent of self-identified moderate or liberal Republicans.
But Tuesday’s vote was the first real-world test of that support in an era without Roe’s protections, and the result shows not only the accuracy of recent polls, but how voters — even in a deep red state like Kansas — are energized about the issue, enabling Democrats to open up.
“This is further evidence of what we’ve been told poll after poll: Americans support abortion rights. They believe we should be able to make our own health care decisions and will vote accordingly, even in the face of misleading campaigns,” said Christina Reynolds, chief operating officer at EMILY’s List, which supports Democratic women who support abortion rights.
After the Supreme Court’s draft opinion leaked in May, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said a national abortion ban was “something that deserves debate,” acknowledging that both state legislatures and Congress would likely take up the issue . Washington Rep. Cathy McMorris Rogers, a former chairwoman of the House Republican Conference, told a reporter last month that House Republicans would not introduce a national abortion ban “before the election,” before adding “Well, yes,” when it was asked if they would if they won the House in 2022.
Abby Curran Horrell, executive director of House Majority PAC, the Democratic Party’s leading super PAC focused on House races, framed the issue as one of Americans losing a key right — echoing messages that worked for Democrats in 2018 on the health care issue.
“Republicans want to take that right away from Americans, and Democrats want to guarantee that freedom and the freedom to control your own body,” she said. “This is a taking away of a fundamental right that has a major impact on Americans across the country. And Americans don’t like it when rights are taken away.”
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