As communities in Ontario and Quebec collect pieces after a deadly storm that left thousands without electricity, new forecasts from AccuWeather reveal that wet and warm weather is expected to continue in the region during the summer season.
According to AccuWeather senior meteorologist Brett Anderson, parts of eastern Canada, ranging from central and southern Ontario to western and southern Quebec, can see higher than normal summer rainfall levels. The region is also expected to see above-average levels of thunderstorm activity, he said.
“This could be a busy summer with severe thunderstorms, especially from the Windsor Corridor to Toronto to Ottawa,” Anderson said as part of the company’s weather forecast analysis.
In fact, several parts of the country, including British Columbia and Canada’s maritime provinces, are also likely to have wetter than normal conditions this summer, according to AccuWeather’s annual summer forecast released on Tuesday.
La Nina, a climatological phenomenon, is expected to play an important role in controlling which areas of Canada will have increased rainfall. The climate model is caused by declining sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific for long periods of time. This affects the orientation and position of the northern jet stream, which in turn affects precipitation levels.
Increased humidity in Ontario and Quebec will also lead to higher humidity levels in the region, Anderson said, given higher amounts of water vapor in the air. Higher humidity levels will also help these areas retain some of the heat they encounter, as the air cannot cool as quickly as if it were dry.
“Increased humidity will lead to warmer nights than normal, while daytime temperatures will be closer to normal,” Anderson said.
The effects of higher humidity are especially pronounced in large cities, which usually capture more heat due to the amount of pavement and existing buildings that emit heat slowly. However, the silver side is that higher levels of precipitation, which are also expected, will reduce the risks of drought and forest fires in the region.
WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST
According to AccuWeather’s summer forecast, there is also likely to be more rain than usual in parts of British Columbia.
“It will be wetter than normal in the north of the province with almost normal rainfall expected in the south,” Anderson said.
Western Canada is usually the region most affected by La Nina, the meteorologist said. This summer, the jet is expected to bring more moisture over parts of western Canada, which will reduce the likelihood of forest fires in the area.
“Given the current conditions and the expected telecommunications to be available, we may see a reduction in fire activity this year, especially compared to last summer,” Anderson said.
Temperatures are expected to fall this year compared to hot conditions in 2021, Anderson said. Last summer, Canadians saw record high temperatures in June 2021. The village of Lytton, British Columbia, broke the record for the highest temperature for three consecutive days, setting a record high of 49.6 C on June 29.
This year, residents can expect temperatures to be closer to normal in most of British Columbia. In Vancouver, for example, temperatures around 21 to 22 C are considered normal in mid to late July.
In addition, rivers and streams are likely to flow at or slightly above normal levels. The runoff, which is melting from layers of snow in nearby mountains, will eventually find its way into rivers and streams, helping the water continue to flow to different parts of the province, Anderson said.
PRORIES PREVIOUS TO DROUGHT AND FIRE
Unlike Western Canada, the prairie provinces are expected to continue the dry conditions that emerged in mid-May in the summer.
“The continuing and deteriorating severe drought in southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan is likely to fuel the heat in the summer,” Anderson said.
Data from the Canadian Drought Monitor show drier than normal conditions in the southernmost parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Southern Alberta in particular continues to face extreme drought conditions.
According to Anderson, these continuing conditions are likely to lead to rising temperatures in cities such as Calgary and Regina, which will lead to hotter summers than usual.
Rising temperatures, combined with dry soil, are also paving the way for forest fires, Anderson said. When the earth is dry, it is easier for the heat from the sun to be radiated back into the atmosphere. The result is even higher temperatures, probably a few degrees above what they would be if the ground were wet.
“These dry and warm conditions are likely to lead to a higher risk of large, rapidly spreading fires on the southern prairies,” Anderson said.
Soil in parts of southern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan will remain wet due to overflowing rivers as a result of recent storms. This will help reduce some of the risks associated with higher temperatures and the development of forest fires, Anderson said. However, these wetter conditions are unlikely to continue throughout the summer.
“Conditions could get drier and hotter in the second half of the summer as the soil dries out,” he said.
HUMIDITY IN THE EAST COAST OF CANADA
People in Canada’s maritime provinces can expect to see humid conditions this summer, according to AccuWeather, as warmer water temperatures are likely to lead to higher air temperatures throughout the season.
“I expect the water temperatures to be around average [1 to 2 C] above normal in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Nova Scotia, “Anderson said.” This will have an impact on warming and higher humidity, especially at night. “
The meteorologist also points out alarming trends around tropical activity in the region. Water temperatures above the Atlantic average could lead to a greater risk of a tropical system touching the base in Atlantic Canada. There have already been reports of a strong hurricane season in the Atlantic this year, to be held in the summer and early fall.
This is because the meteorological summer should start on June 1. The official start of summer, also known as the summer solstice, begins on June 21.
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