Earlier this month, Statistics Canada published its April Labor Force Survey, a monthly survey of the agency’s households that seeks to assess the health of the Canadian economy.
This study offered some positive indicators for Alberta: jobs in the province increased by nearly 16,000, while the unemployment rate in the province fell to its lowest level since 2015.
These figures, said Doug Schweizer, Alberta’s Minister of Employment, Economy and Innovation, reflect a well-executed plan and the government’s policy of enticing investment in the province.
However, there are concerns among some economists about the unemployment rate in Alberta, which is 5.9% in this study – and the long-term consequences if such trends continue.
Recessions usually lead to an increase in the number of long-term unemployed (those who have been out of work for six months or more).
But what makes Alberta’s numbers stand out among Canadian provinces is how many people are long-term unemployed: 32.9 percent. This is well above the second highest, Newfoundland and Labrador, with 22.3%, while the average for Canada is 20.9%.
“It has all sorts of side effects,” said Trevor Tomb, a professor of economics at the University of Calgary.
This share of long-term unemployment, Tombe notes, is roughly the same as during the 2015 recession.
The provincial government attributes this percentage to Alberta’s “triple black swan” of economic shocks: a collapse in energy prices, contractions in the world economy and the impact of the global pandemic.
Their data show that most of these people who experience long-term unemployment are aged 50 and over; 52% are men and 48% are women. And the province says most (81.6%) are not tied to a specific industry or profession.
Getting back to work is not always easy. The longer someone is unemployed, the more their skills can be considered eroded or outdated. Long gaps in the resume can be awkward to explain. And those in older demographics may simply retire earlier than planned if opportunities do not arise.
“Then there are these broader concerns for politicians, as you will have a lower labor force participation rate. So, that translates into economic growth and government revenue, “Tombe said.
Finding the way back
Not all industries have taken on the brunt of the pandemic in the same way – the arts and entertainment sector, for example, has been hit hard and is provided to be among the last to fully recover.
Doug Charters was working full-time as an audio technician and stage worker at the Calgary Film and Stage Technicians Union when the pandemic struck. He was out of work for almost two years.
“It’s almost like drowning. And then you go back to the beach, you know, and you realize, oh well, that was close. There are still other people who have failed, “he said.
Charters, a full-time professional audio technician and stage assistant at the International Theater Workers’ Alliance, found that for weeks he played in a band called Pistol Noon as a guitarist. (Joel Dryden / CBC)
Of course, the overall economic health of the province is colored by the status of its largest industrial sector, the oil and gas industry.
Prior to the pandemic, many long-term unemployed workers in the province were displaced by workers in the industry, Tombe said, largely supportive workers – those jobs related to drilling, exploration and development and construction.
“It really has to do with investment in the sector, which has fallen sharply during this recession,” Tombe said. “It really hasn’t recovered, despite the recent high oil prices.
“And many of these workers were younger, working with relatively lower education. This makes it difficult to switch to other types of activities.”
The pandemic has led to further job cuts in the industry. In February 2021 there was 15,500 workers in the oil and gas sector actively looking for work.
The oil and gas industry is in short supply, but economists say jobs lost before the pandemic have not returned amid a boom in oil prices. (Kyle Bucks / CBC)
Since then, the price of oil has risen – and this has actually led to labor shortage in the industry.
But Pat Hufnagel-Smith, a labor market consultant who studies the energy sector, says the jobs that are being created are not necessarily the same as those that have been lost in the last few years.
“On the demand side, there is a lot of demand for high-tech workers,” she said. “As long as there is some possibility of transfer, [it’s] it is certainly not the kind of transfer of skills needed to learn some of those workers who were affected, say, from 2014 to 2016.
According to the industry, this shortage of workers has hampered further growth, even as oil prices rise.
This was said by the President of the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors The Canadian press in March that the industry is not sufficiently prepared to meet demand and its ability to attract people has suffered.
This is a paradox, said Alicia Planincic, political and economic manager at the Alberta Business Council.
On the one hand, she said, you have a group of Alberts struggling to find work, and on the other, employers have the challenge of finding and hiring the workers they need.
“The way we somehow compare these two things is the fact that the skill sets and qualities that employers are looking for are different from the skill sets and qualities of people who are out of work,” she said.
What must be done?
For some, the search continues. Others in the industry have found their way back.
Andrew Baker has been working as a planner in the oil and gas industry since about 2004. When the pandemic struck, he was unemployed for nearly a year.
“I must say it was pretty scary. It’s a bit like a roller coaster ride, “said Baker, who has since found a new position.
“It just goes on and on and on for months, right? Because it really was the best harvest. People took on jobs that were well below their skill level.”
The provincial government says the Alberta at Work initiative – announced as part of this year’s budget – aims to create new opportunities, including for the long-term unemployed.
Jim Stanford, an economist and director of the Vancouver-based Center for Future Work, said Alberta’s figures pose a challenge to government and industry at all levels.
“They don’t have to look very far to see people who want to work and can work, and they definitely have skills that can be adapted to new jobs,” Stanford said.
“So the challenge for employers is to look outside their normal circle and try to find positions for some of these long-term unemployed people.”
Trevor Tomb is a professor of economics at the University of Calgary. He says the impact of long-term unemployment could have all sorts of side effects on the province. (Colin Hall / CBC)
There is no easy lever the government can pull to solve the problem, Tombe said, but there are options on the table.
Subsidies can be provided to employers who accept apprentices, for example. He said the rates also raise questions about whether individual targeted income support programs may be needed.
“All kinds of different initiatives really need to be supported by the government and they have started to move in that direction,” Tombe said. “But it will be a long process.”
However, for those who have been out of work for more than six months, the experience can be worrying.
For Kelsey Miller, who found a job at the Alberta Ballet after being absent from work for nearly 18 months, returning to work was a huge relief.
“Our first day of return would be the end of October with Swan Lake,” she said.
“I have to say that the moment the curtain came up, it was really hard to hold back the tears.
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