On Thursday afternoon, the NHC began calling the system a potential tropical cyclone 1 and issued tropical storm monitoring for the southern parts of the east and west coasts of Florida, as well as Florida Keys. The clock includes Miami, Sarasota, Key West, West Palm Beach and Melbourne.
A tropical storm clock has also been released for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeke, Havana, Artemis, Pinar del Rio and the Island of Youth.
The potential tropical cyclone was first 95 miles northwest of Cozumel, with maximum winds of 35 mph as it moved north at 6 mph, the NHC said in a 23:00 ET update.
That puts the storm on track to intensify into a tropical storm sometime Friday afternoon, with landfall expected in southwest Florida early Saturday afternoon, NHC forecasters said.
“Potential tropical cyclone” is a term developed by the NHC as a way to issue clocks and warnings for a storm system that is expected to develop as it approaches land. Prior to this change, the NHC was unable to issue clocks and warnings until a tropical storm actually developed, which limited the time to implement critical warnings.
In this case, the NHC predicts a 90% chance that this group of storms will form either in a depression or in a tropical storm in the next 48 hours. For the storm to be named Alex – the first name of the hurricane season in 2022, the system will have to strengthen and reach stable winds of 39 mph or higher. The maximum steady winds are currently 35 mph.
“Whether the storm is raging or not, significant flooding is possible in South Florida and Keys,” said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers. “It’s too early to say where the heaviest rain will fall, because it’s not even a storm yet, but models show that 12 to 16 inches of rain is possible in the worst areas.
“There is still some variability in how this system will track, but heavy rainfall, which could spread to numerous flash floods, is certainly plausible in South Florida and Keys,” the WPC said in a statement. Thursday morning.
They predict a moderate risk – level 3 of 4 – of excessive rainfall leading to flash floods.
Deep tropical humidity will rise before the likely storm and over South Florida throughout the day on Friday and Saturday.
South Florida is probably on the road
Computer forecast models are beginning to agree that a tropical storm or depression will form and hit South Florida.
“The latest guidelines for the model are beginning to agree with this low pass somewhere over South Florida on Saturday,” the Miami National Weather Service said Thursday morning.
The road is important because if it takes a more southern route, it could protect densely populated areas of South Florida from the serious threat that comes from the northeast side of tropical storms and hurricanes.
“Gusty winds and isolated tornadoes or two will be a major threat on Friday and Saturday,” the Miami-based NWS said. “These details remain uncertain, as they will depend on the exact path taken by the system. A southern runway would place the northeast quadrant above the water, which would be a better scenario for the harsh weather in South Florida.
So the road matters, even if it’s just a tropical storm.
Chad Myers warns that until the NHC finds the exact center of this storm, forecast models will have difficulty predicting the exact path of this storm.
“A hurricane fighter plane is heading to the area today, and we hope it can find the true center of every circulation,” Myers said.
This information will be used when launching a computer model on Thursday night, which gives a better indication of the path and potential strength of the storm.
On Wednesday night, without knowing the exact central location of the storm system, the American model had 3 different places with low pressure at the same time, Myers explains. “For me, this shows that cutting the wind in the area can slow down the organization of a potential storm and protect it from rapid growth for now.
This system has two of the three ingredients needed to form a hurricane
To form a hurricane, you need “warm ocean water, weak wind cuts and a bunch of pre-existing storms … we currently have 2 of the 3,” Myers said.
Wind shear is the change in wind speed and direction as you move up in the sky. If it is strong – as it is now in the Gulf of Mexico – it makes it difficult to form hurricanes.
“We have a lot of opposing forces here,” Myers said. “It’s like trying to speed up your car and not realize the emergency brake is on.”
If the brake – the shear wind – weakens, it is unlikely that this storm will intensify more than expected.
However, this is the least likely scenario.
Another forecast for hurricane season above average
Just last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its forecast for this hurricane season.
They forecast a year above average, with 14 to 21 storms with names, 6 to 10 hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes – category 3 or more.
There are several factors that contribute to the “busy” hurricane season.
“We are in an active period,” said NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad. “There are certain ingredients that determine the intensity and frequency of hurricanes.”
One is the existing conditions of La Niña in the equatorial Pacific.
This phenomenon creates lower than average ocean temperatures around the equator in the Pacific Ocean and leads to the effects of weather around the world.
La Niña provides favorable conditions for hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean – in contrast to that in El Niño.
Earlier this morning, the State University of Colorado published an update of its forecast. It now requires a season over hurricanes with 20 so-called storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.
This is the largest number of named storms the CSU has ever forecast for the season in June, said Phil Klotzbach, author of the forecast, to CNN. In 2020, the university’s forecast center predicts 19 storms during its release in June, but that number includes three storms that were named before the start of the season.
No storms have formed this year.
CNN meteorologist Jean Norman contributed to this report.
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