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Wednesday marks the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season and, like clockwork, the first tropical depression or so-called storm is on the verge of forming.
This projected depression or storm – which will be named Alex if it gets a name – could cause more than half a foot of rain in South Florida on Friday and Saturday, leading to possible flooding.
The potential storm will be born of rain and thunderstorms, which are grouped just east of the Yucatan Peninsula and are expected to consolidate into a more concentrated low-pressure zone as they shift north and east over the Gulf of Mexico in the coming days. The remnants of Hurricane Agatha, which struck southern Mexico on Monday as the country’s strongest storm in May, have been drawn into the system.
NOAA predicts the seventh consecutive busy season of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean
The National Hurricane Center says the system has an 80 percent chance of turning into a tropical depression or storm by the weekend. Heavy rains in southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize are scheduled to land by Thursday. Then South Florida, Florida Keys and Western Cuba could be the target of very heavy rain on Friday and Saturday.
Gusty winds and ocean waves are also possible in South Florida, assuming a tropical storm is forming; environmental conditions are unlikely to sustain a hurricane.
The evolution of the potential storm in the bay
The evolving system will be boosted by what is left of Agatha, who reached the mainland on Monday afternoon near Puerto Angel on the west coast of southern Mexico. It struck like a Category 2 hurricane with a wind of 105 miles per hour. Storm winds and ocean waves littered the roads with debris and caused significant damage to the coastal cities of Puerto Angel and Mazunte.
I’m back. From time to time I catch # hurricane, which puts me on my knees, requires respect, reminds me why I do it. See: The Wrath of #AGATHA. I received a right front ATV from a classic deep tropical saw at Mazunte #Oaxaca #Mexico. Power as a machine; deafening roar. pic.twitter.com/H2kWF0EBP1
– Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone) May 31, 2022
The storm is expected to produce 10 to 20 inches of rain as it passes through the terrain at high altitude over the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas on Monday and Tuesday. At least 11 people were killed and 20 were missing as a result of floods and landslides, according to the Associated Press.
Crossing southern Mexico, Agatha weakened from a hurricane to residual thunderstorms. These remains are attracted to the Central American Circle, located above the Yucatan Peninsula, the western Caribbean and Campeche Bay in the southern Gulf. Swirl is a common area of counterclockwise rotation in the atmosphere with rain and thunderstorms.
This turn is expected to become more concentrated in the coming days as it glides between Cancun and the western tip of Cuba, likely turning into a new whirlwind that could turn into a tropical depression. This is the precursor to a tropical storm. If anything materializes produces strong winds of at least 39 mph, it will be called Alex.
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Gulf temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are one or two degrees above average, and hostile winds at high altitudes must weaken near and south of the low-pressure center. This can encourage very gradual development and the system could turn into a tropical storm by early Saturday. At that time, it should be moving ashore in South Florida or gliding near Keys.
Much of the heavy rainfall could occur north of the storm center and should arrive over the Florida Strait and the southernmost counties of the Florida peninsula on Friday morning. Most of the rain will disappear near the Bahamas late Saturday.
The European model simulates wide 5 to 8 inches of rain south of the Caloosahatchee River and Lake Okeechobee, but the American model suggests that localized sums with two-digit numbers might be available.
The National Weather Service warns that the land in South Florida is already “somewhat saturated” from a few inches of rain on Remembrance Day weekend, and that additional rainfall “could lead to some flooding.”
If a tropical storm forms, it can push enough ocean water toward the coast to cause a wave, causing coastal flooding – especially during high tide.
An isolated tornado or jet of water would also be possible in the right front quadrant of the storm or the area just northeast of the center in any rainstorm.
Longer-range models suggest that the storm may be parallel to the southeast coast and pass near or east of the Gulf Stream and intensify as it passes northeast over the open North Atlantic, but confidence in this scenario is low.
The beginning of the season of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean
June 1 marks the beginning of the annual Atlantic hurricane season, and atmospheric scientists have warned that 2022 could be the seventh consecutive year of excessive storm activity. The presence of the La Niña climate model, which favors increased upward movement and calm upper-level winds conducive to hurricanes, could intensify the season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is projecting 14 to 21 so-called storms – compared to 14 on average – and three to six major hurricanes of category 3 or higher.
Jason Samenou contributed to this report.
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