BALTIMORE — Get ready to see a lot of these Orioles.
Entering Monday’s game, the Toronto Blue Jays had 54 games remaining — exactly one-third of the way through the season. Of those 54 games, 15 were against Baltimore, a team that is legitimately in the American League playoff mix a year after losing 110 times.
So is this thriving young team doomed to regress? By dealing first baseman Trey Mancini and closer Jorge Lopez at the trade deadline last week, GM Mike Elias tacitly acknowledged that possibility. And objectively, the projections agree, with FanGraph predicting run prevention issues for Baltimore down the stretch.
But what about the other possibility? The one the Blue Jays got a close look at in Monday night’s 7-4 loss at Camden Yards? What if the Orioles are…good?
“They have some young, exciting players,” interim manager John Schneider said before the series began. “Gone are the days when you can say there’s only one AL East.”
“The way I think about it, it looks like they really have nothing to lose,” added starter Kevin Gausman, who spent the first six seasons of his career in Baltimore. “As long as we do. The pressure is on us, obviously. We realize this. But we also have to play good baseball.”
Opinions differ around the league on whether the Orioles can sustain a .500-plus pace this year.
“No,” said one longtime baseball player. “Not in a thousand years.” Then I check the Wild Card standings and the number of teams that are really trying is terrifying. Still, I don’t consider the Orioles to be trying. I mean, they traded Mancini.
But as one veteran scout said, there’s no doubt they’re moving in the right direction.
“Nice mix of youngsters and guys who need to prove their worth to stay in the big leagues,” the scout said. “It’s usually two motivated groups of players. This division will be a real problem for the next few years.
No matter where you fall on the Orioles — and again, the numbers say they’ve improved, but not to the point of being a real playoff threat — those 15 games will have a significant say in determining the Blue Jays’ seeding in the AL Wild Card race.
On Monday, the Orioles were definitely the better team. Their pitchers limited the Blue Jays to four runs while their hitters made all kinds of tough contact against an ineffective Yusei Kikuchi. With the win, Baltimore moves within 1.5 games of the last AL Wild Card spot and within three games of the Blue Jays remaining in first place. For more than two-thirds of the entire season, they hang around.
As for Kikuchi, he covered five innings but allowed six hits while walking three. He topped out at 96.5 mph, so velocity wasn’t an issue, but he only generated seven swinging strikes on 84 pitches. Overall, he allowed five earned runs while his ERA climbed to 5.13.
Kikuchi then lamented the missed opportunity, while admitting that he didn’t have his best stuff.
“Each one of these games will be very important,” he said through translator Kevin Ando. “They’re fighting for a playoff spot.”
“I noticed last year that their squad was full of very talented, young players,” he added. “When they get more experience at the big league level, they’ll start playing well like they are right now.”
As Ross Stripling returns from the injured list, he should face live hitters or
As Ross Stripling returns from the injured list, he must face live hitters or pitch in a rehab environment before returning to the big league rotation. In the meantime, there’s no question the Blue Jays need Kikuchi, and that means accepting the inconsistency he offers from the start. At this point, there is no momentum toward a change in the lefty’s role.
“Not right now,” Schneider said. “We like the progress he’s made. You get to a certain point in the year and you have to try to win every game, but right now he’s definitely giving us a chance. I think (Monday) was just a couple bad pitches in a row, but right now he’s going to continue to get opportunities.”
Playing at Camden Yards for the first time since the Orioles moved the left field fences, the Blue Jays hit two home runs, solo shots by Cavan Biggio and Matt Chapman. But Baltimore hit four homers against the Blue Jays, three off Kikuchi and one off reliever Trent Thornton.
“It’s different,” Schneider said of the new dimensions. “It’s gone from a sort of bandbox to a place where you really have to take it to spread it.” It seems far away. The wall is high. Homers will be homers, and some homers that would be homers will be fly balls. You have to understand it and get used to it there. It’s definitely different to the Camden we’re used to.”
Nor are these the Orioles we’re used to. For the Blue Jays, that makes the outlook for those 14 games a little more uncertain, a little less comfortable.
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