Prime Minister Scott Morrison is urging voters to re-elect their center-right Liberal National Coalition Government after a three-year term dominated by pandemics, climate disasters and allegations of dishonesty.
Morrison’s popularity declined after he opposed opinion polls to win a “miracle” for Labor in 2019, and the election was seen as a referendum on his self-proclaimed “bulldozer” leadership style.
Morrison’s main rival is Anthony Olbanese, a Labor veteran who succeeded the party after his shocked predecessor stepped down after losing the 2019 election.
This time, Labor has withdrawn its political proposals to narrow the gap between them and the coalition, although both face an unprecedented challenge from the “beer” independents, who are campaigning for more climate action and political integrity.
Supported by the millionaire, founder of “Climate 200”, the blue-green color mixes their “blue” liberal views with “green” beliefs.
The big parties need at least 76 seats to run directly – less and will have to negotiate with smaller parties and independents to provide enough support to form a minority government.
Voting is mandatory and more than 17 million Australians are expected to vote before polling stations close at 6pm AET (4.00pm ET) on Saturday.
If there is a clear winner, the result can be known in hours – but it can take days or even weeks to decide a close race.
The big problems
Across the country, smoke is billowing from polling barbecues as volunteers prepare “democracy sausages” wrapped in a slice of bread garnished with onions and sauce, a decades-long Australian election tradition.
Volunteers wearing party colors are circling nearby, waiting to pass “how to vote” cards into the hands of anyone they suspect may not have decided.
After leading the polls for weeks, Labor’s chances of winning narrowed in the last days before the vote, although public opinion polls have been cautious since the upheaval in 2019. Then even bookmakers were caught unprepared, according to SportsBet. lost more than $ 5 million after paying a profit two days earlier.
Elections in Australia are usually a two-horse race between the Liberal National Coalition and the Labor Party – and while their policies seem similar, they are some important distinctions.
The most important thing in the world is their position on the climate crisis.
The UN secretary-general called Morrison’s government “climate change” after outlining a plan to reach net zero by 2050 by creating massive new gas projects. The government says it supports the transition from coal to renewable energy, but has no plans to stop new coal projects.
Labor says it will cut emissions by 43% by 2030 – higher than the coalition’s 26-28% target, but less is needed than climatologists say to keep global temperatures rising within 1.5 degrees Celsius, as agreed in the Paris Agreement. Climate-focused independent organizations want to reduce emissions closer to 60% by 2030 and disrupt cozy relations between the government and the mining industry.
He does not divide the major foreign policy parties much, although Labor says he will restore relations that accuse the coalition of harming during their term. That includes the French, whom Morrison angered by canceling a $ 90 billion submarine deal in favor of the AUKUS security pact with the United States and the United Kingdom. Both the coalition and Labor have promised to be tough on China, which signed a security agreement with the Solomon Islands during the election campaign that led to allegations that Canberra dropped the ball into the Pacific.
Other issues that dominate the election include housing affordability, inflation and the cost of living, which are not unique to Australia. Morrison says only the coalition can be trusted to run a pandemic economy amid predictions that rising interest rates could inflict more financial pain on homeowners for too long. Labor, meanwhile, says it is the only party to stand up for workers whose wages are stagnant, even as inflation rises to a 20-year high.
Why Morrison can leave
Morrison stumbled for just a few months in his leadership when he made the politically disastrous decision to go on holiday to Hawaii as wildfires engulfed the country. He cut short his holiday after two volunteer firefighters were killed, but justified his absence to a radio interviewer with a phrase that turned into money laundering shorthand: “I don’t hold a hose, my friend.” Months later, when Covid’s first case was discovered in Australia, Morrison responded quickly. He closed the nation’s borders for two years, but was criticized for failing to quickly introduce vaccinations that critics said allowed local outbreaks to linger, forcing major cities to close for months. To date, just over 8,000 people have died in Australia from Covid, and about 50,000 new cases are reported each day. The prime minister was also attacked for his lack of involvement in working with a liberal official who claims she was raped in parliament, sparking a mass rally in 2021 by Australian women who called on the government to do better. During the pandemic, women’s groups criticized the government’s willingness to rebuild male-dominated hard hats, while ignoring sectors that are largely occupied by women – hospitality, the arts – which have suffered from prolonged downtime.
Insults were hurled during the election campaign, with Morrison calling Olbanese a “free unit” after the Labor leader said he would “absolutely” support raising wages to keep up with inflation. Morrison turned the mirror back to himself when he admitted at a news conference that he might be a bit of a bulldozer – after which he vowed to change. The election result can show whether voters believe him.
The great uncertainty in this election is whether voters will turn their backs on the big parties to vote for smaller parties or independents. Most of the beer independents are highly educated women who have turned to politics, becoming frustrated with the “boys’ club” of politics in Canberra.
Hannabet Luke was nominated as an independent in Paige’s electorate in northern New South Wales after hearing Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce say the government could not reduce greenhouse gas emissions because it would harm farmers.
“I was furious,” said Luke, a scientist who teaches climate resilience at Southern Cross University. At the time, she was outlining students’ assignments for their life experiences of climate change. “The students made me cry. We are talking about the loss of the harvest in the fields, then the fires burning the harvest, and then the flood that washes away the fields, “she said.
“The anger I felt then made me go,” elections are coming. We cannot allow this government for another three years to allow our children’s future to burn. “
Independent research is mixed, but Zare Ghazaryan, a professor of politics at Monash University, says some could do “real damage” to the Liberal Party.
One of the most influential battles took place at Kuyong’s Victorian headquarters, where Monique Ryan, a pediatric neurologist and newcomer to politics, sought to oust Liberal Treasurer Josh Freidenberg, who is considered the future leader of the Liberal Party.
“If the (independents) win their seats, it will not only hinder the work of the Liberal Party to support the government, but will also deprive them of potential opportunities for leadership in the future,” Ghazaryan said. “So this is a big problem for the coalition.”
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