UPDATE: 1:40 p.m
Temperatures across the province are expected to rise as July continues, with the British Columbia Wildfire Service expecting increased fire behavior towards the end of the month.
Matt MacDonald, BCWS’ lead forecaster, presented the seasonal wildfire forecast Thursday afternoon along with Catherine Conroy, British Columbia’s Minister of Forests.
McDonald said a cooler June — bringing heavy and steady rain to much of British Columbia — contributed to a quiet start to this year’s fire season for much of the province, but fuels could still dry out and become susceptible to flare-ups even after a week of warmer weather.
From April 1 to July 4, there were 217 wildfires – about half the number of wildfires normally recorded at this time of year – and the fires were also smaller than normal.
“The likelihood of large, large, deep fires occurring is relatively low right now. But again, that doesn’t prevent us from seeing increased fire activity as we get into the middle, the heart of summer,” McDonald said.
“With the forecast I put out today, there’s a good chance we’ll get into that warm weather.” So inevitably we are likely to see an increase in fire activity.
MacDonald said a return to hot and dry conditions is expected over the next few weeks.
“As we get into the second half of July, not only will we see those summer temperatures finally materialize, but they’ll likely be warmer than normal, probably a degree or two, which over a 30-day period is definitely remarkable.” , McDonald said.
McDonald said forecasts call for drier than normal conditions in the second half of July and early August, but noted that rainfall amounts are difficult to predict.
He said much of the rainfall that occurs during the summer months comes from small thunderstorms that are “impossible” to predict two or three days out.
“We will have to see how this situation develops. But we’re pretty confident we’re going to get into warmer conditions here as we get into the heart of summer,” McDonald said.
He said this pattern is likely to continue into August, with a predicted return to near-seasonal temperatures in late August and into September.
Macdonald said BCWS’ focus right now is on the northwest corner of the province, which hasn’t been affected by as much rainfall as the rest of British Columbia and is seeing “a pretty active start to the fire season.”
He said BCWS expects initial success of the attack for crews responding to fires over the southern two-thirds of the province. For northern regions, he said it would depend on the forecast for incoming lightning over the next few days.
“As we move into early next week, the chances are increasing that we’ll finally get some rain in that northwest corner,” McDonald said.
Conroy said the slow start to the fire season has allowed BCWS to send 113 personnel to support firefighting efforts in the Yukon.
“Last year, during one of our worst and most challenging fire seasons, we gratefully received support from 917 out-of-province personnel, including Yukon resources. So helping each other in times of need is really important and something BC is proud to be able to do,” said Conroy.
On Thursday, Conroy announced the government will provide an additional $25 million for community projects to help reduce wildfire risk, available through the Forest Enhancement Society of BC, an agency that helps communities reduce wildfire risk and emissions of greenhouse gases.
“Communities deserve all of our support, especially as the threat of wildfires appears to be increasing with the ongoing effects of climate change,” Conroy said, adding that he hopes for a better wildfire season this summer.
“As every British Columbian knows, we regularly face some of the worst social conditions we have ever seen in this province. And that’s why FESBC funding is just one part of our recent budget to protect British Columbians from wildfires.”
ORIGINAL: 12:13 p.m
British Columbia Forestry Minister Catherine Conroy and Matt MacDonald, lead forecaster with the British Columbia Forest Fire Service, provide a seasonal wildfire forecast for July and an update on seasonal wildfire preparedness Thursday afternoon.
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