President Joe Biden is visiting Saudi Arabia this month to restore relations, ostensibly to stabilize oil markets and improve regional security.
The immediate price for this commitment is ending the diplomatic freeze that began when the Saudi government killed Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post journalist and US resident. The long-term cost is once again entangled with a reckless client who continues to destroy nearby nations and destabilize the Middle East.
The Biden administration has also continued its economic war with Iran and Venezuela, while also pressuring US allies to comply with two of its biggest oil producers. This isolation and uncertainty has limited oil production in both nations and forced them to seek commitments from rivals such as Russia and China.
If the Biden administration wants to lower oil prices and stabilize regional conflicts, re-engaging with the key instigator is the wrong way forward. Instead, it should diversify its relationship and lift sanctions against isolated countries, including Iran and Venezuela. This would not only ease gas prices, but reduce the ability of existing customers to take advantage of Washington’s support.
Gasoline prices at an Exxon station in Houston on June 9, 2022. Brandon Bell/Getty Images
Oil prices are obviously a big deal. They have hit $111 a barrel since last month, creating both short-term pain and long-term loss. Since transportation costs are a factor in everything, high gas prices raise the price of everything else, making Americans poorer in real terms because their wages buy fewer goods.
But the proposed re-engagement is simply code for giving the Saudis more security commitments and additional American resources. It will be reiterated that the Saudi government can do whatever it wants and expect continued support from the US, which is hardly a recipe for encouraging them to consider American interests.
It will also further undermine international norms and increase reckless driving. Unleveraging means that temporary increases in production can be reversed later. And that little “comfort” will come at the price of ignoring the public extrajudicial killing. International norms become weaker when prominent states offer tacit approval of their violation. Rogue states are a bit like entrepreneurs: they know an opportunity when they see one.
Expanding US commitments to Saudi Arabia would also deepen America’s involvement in a historically destabilizing power. It’s a country that was recently at war with its impoverished neighbor, Yemen, using missiles provided by Washington to bomb everything from funerals to weddings.
The leadership and institutions of Saudi Arabia are still the same. States make cost-benefit calculations like everyone else. When the United States offers a commitment — money and weapons despite destabilizing behavior — it changes Saudi Arabia’s expectations of what it can and cannot do. Knowing that American support is guaranteed will only encourage more bad behavior.
Smoke rises from a public hall in Sana’a, Yemen, where Saudi warplanes bombed a funeral, October 9, 2016. Khaled Abdullah/Reuters
Instead of deepening ties to rogue actors, the Biden administration should diversify Washington’s ties so that no single actor benefits from US support. Coincidentally, Iran and Venezuela are also OPEC founders and major oil producers. If they were to produce oil at full capacity, oil prices could drop significantly. Biden should offer them relief to encourage more oil production.
After lifting oil sanctions, Biden could offer to buy a certain amount of oil in advance to stabilize the business and improve long-term production. This would signal a renewed commitment to rebuilding economic relations with the two nations.
Finally, the Biden administration should schedule bilateral talks on a regular basis to improve communication and build a productive relationship. The aim of these negotiations will be to gradually remove other sanctions, such as in banking, international trade and shipping. Even unrelated sanctions have a detrimental effect on trade: if a business knows that a country is a potential target for any sanctions, why would it invest in such an unstable environment?
These reforms will not only curb inflation, but help move both nations further from Russia’s orbit and improve Washington’s ability to negotiate with existing clients. Countries like Saudi Arabia will have a harder time monopolizing the attention of the Biden administration.
International relations, like economics, is about trade-offs. By lifting sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, Biden can take steps to restore the nation’s standard of living. Building a world where America has more relationships and pursues them in a businesslike way is a world where the US can see and pursue its interests more clearly.
Yameen Huq is a cybersecurity professional and a strategic leaders fellow at the John Quincy Adams Society. Previously, he was a consultant specializing in analytics, cyber security and strategy for public and private sector clients. He has a master’s degree in cybersecurity with a focus on technology policy. His previous publications have appeared in The National Interest, American Affairs, and Exponents. The opinions expressed in this post are his own and do not reflect those of his employer. Follow him on Twitter here.
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