With USC and UCLA moving to the Big Ten, the futures of the remaining Pac-12 schools are stuck in limbo. Right now, there’s at least one potential landing spot for programs looking for greener pastures: the Big 12.
Six schools have reportedly been in “deep discussions” to join the Big 12, according to CBS Sports’ Dennis Dodd. Dodd specifically mentions Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah, adding that Oregon and Washington are also under consideration. Also on the table is a merger between the Big 12 and the rest of the Pac-12 schools.
How the Big 12 chooses to proceed will come down to what resolution the conference believes will make a richer media rights deal more likely. The addition of Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado is believed to give the conference the same average annual value (AAV) in 2025 — the year Texas and Oklahoma leave the SEC — as it does for the current 12 members now. However, a full merger with the Pac-12 creates additional complications, especially with how interested ESPN and Fox may be in negotiating with one or both leagues.
The Pac-12 reportedly had a projected AAV of $500 million per year — or $42 million per school — before USC and UCLA left. That figure is now $300 million ($30 million per school), according to the San Jose Mercury News. The conference released a statement Tuesday saying its board of directors had authorized the league to immediately begin renegotiating its media rights agreements, making the Pac-12’s actual AAV in future years more difficult to predict.
Meanwhile, 10 schools have reportedly reached out to the Big Ten unofficially to seek a potential conference move after catching up with USC and UCLA, according to Laine Higgins of The Wall Street Journal.
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The calls come as schools not currently in the Big Ten or SEC jockey for position, with consolidation among the nation’s top programs becoming the norm. Schools from the Pac-12 and ACC are said to be among those who could look to the Big Ten as their next move according to Higgins, as well as Notre Dame, which represents the biggest domino of all.
Notre Dame has remained an independent throughout its football existence (except for the pandemic-altered 2020 season when it competed in the ACC). The school has an exclusive agreement with NBC to broadcast all of its home games, which reportedly brings in $15 million a year in revenue from the deal. Notre Dame football is also a partial member of the ACC, which paid the program $10.8 million in payouts in 2019-20. The Irish received $34.9 million for the 20-21 academic year.
While a move to the ACC might seem logical given Notre Dame’s current conference affiliation, the financial prospect would be much greater in the Big Ten, which would reportedly be thrilled to bring the Irish into the fold.
“The Big Ten will take them today, tomorrow, five years from now, ten years from now,” one conference commissioner told Higgins. “You’re going to numbers that just stink to build schedules to add Notre Dame.”
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