Dissatisfied Tory MPs told Boris Johnson that the momentum behind the challenge to his leadership is now “unstoppable” after the Conservatives lost nearly 400 advisers and a series of leading councils.
The prime minister acknowledged that the Tories had had a “hard night” in London and the south, but insisted the party had made “quite notable gains” elsewhere in the country as Keir Starmer’s Labor failed to break through the so-called red wall. .
The Tories were also backed by a statement from Durham police investigating an alleged breach of Starmer’s Covid regulations, which they hope will offset future attacks on Mr Johnson over Partygate.
But that did not reassure lawmakers in the traditional Tory strongholds in the affluent capital and southeast, where the party saw Wandsworth, Westminster and Barnett fall to Labor after decades of Tory control – and Woking was captured by the Liberal Democrats.
Public anger against Downing Street parties is now constantly “ingrained” in voters’ views of the prime minister, acting as a barrier to the party’s representation across the country, Conservative MPs have warned.
The Tories lost all control of John Major’s House Council in Huntingdenshire and David Cameron’s West Oxfordshire, as well as Wokingham in Buckinghamshire – long represented in the John Redwood Townships – as the Liberal Democrats raided the so-called councilors increased by more than 180.
Celebrating the successes in which the Liberal Democrats also took Hull away from Labor and gained control of the new unitary authorities in Westmoreland and Somerset, Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey said: “The tectonic plates of British politics are shifting. It is now up to conservative lawmakers to push the prime minister into the abyss.
Mr Starmer said the results in London – as well as Crowley and Southampton, which they snatched from the Tories, and Kirklis, Rosendale and Worthing, where they gained full control – marked a “huge turning point” for Labor, whose overall earnings exceeded 260.
But election guru Sir John Curtis calculated that Sir Keir had performed worse outside the capital than his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, the last time the seats were contested in 2018.
Professor Curtis said the BBC’s projected 35 per cent vote for Labor, 30 for the Conservatives and 19 for the Liberal Democrats on Thursday would not give the Tories “any chance of remaining in office” after the next general election. and will set Mr Starmer’s stage to enter at number 10, backed by Mr Davy’s group.
A former Conservative minister told The Independent that strengthening support in the Red Wall areas could not compensate for the disintegration of traditional fortresses.
“These are the cores of Boris, but they are not the cores of the Tories,” said the MP, who is considering a letter of no confidence in the prime minister. “It’s not good to save soup if you lose food.”
Another former minister said it was clear that the party had been preparing for a leadership race in recent days and that the outcome of the local elections would have no bearing on the process.
Another said that while Mr Starmer’s investigation could prevent a challenge to Johnson’s position for some time, it is now “probably a question of when not if”.
Veteran backburner Sir Roger Gale, the first Tory to distrust Mr Johnson, suggested the challenge could come in three weeks, telling The Independent: “There is a tide that is flowing and unstoppable. Something has to happen. “
While avoiding a landslide this week, Mr Johnson faces “imminent danger” with the prospect of new police fines, Sue Gray’s report at Partygate and difficult midterm elections in Wakefield, Tiverton and Honiton, all amid growing inflation of up to 10 percent and a “catastrophic” increase in energy bills, Sir Roger said.
With the conflict in Ukraine now settled into what could be a protracted war of attrition, Sir Roger said he no longer believed the crisis required the Tories to refrain from changing leadership.
About 54 Tory MPs have to send a letter of no confidence to the 1922 chairman of the committee, Sir Graham Brady, to challenge the leadership challenge that requires a majority of MPs to succeed.
Prominent quarterback Tobias Eloud said it was time for all party lawmakers to face the question of whether they wanted Mr Johnson to remain in place in the face of evidence that the Tories were “bleeding” the votes.
The former defense minister agreed that it was a “huge request” for Tory MPs to consider dismissing a charismatic leader who won them a large majority in Westminster.
But he told the BBC: “Now this is a requirement because the trust of the British people has been broken. And it is the duty of every conservative MP to make that assessment and then act accordingly. “
Across the country, regional and national Tory leaders have accused Mr Johnson of undermining support for the party at the local level.
In Cumberland, where Labor won an overwhelming majority in the Tory district of Westminster, former Carlisle City Council leader John Malinson said voters no longer had “confidence that the prime minister can be trusted to tell the truth”. .
Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross, who saw his party fall from second to third north of the border, said there was “absolutely no doubt” that voters were sending a message to Partygate.
Mr Ross did not reiterate his previous call for Johnson to leave – which he withdrew after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – but warned: “The prime minister simply cannot ignore the message sent by voters not only in Scotland but also in the United Kingdom.” .
The leader of the Tories in Wales, Andrew RT Davis, accused the “national picture” of undermining the brand of the Welsh Conservatives, which he insisted was warmly received on the doorstep.
A senior Tory official told The Independent that it was now “obviously in the best interest of both Labor and the Liberal Democrats to keep Boris in place,” he said. “He’s obviously leading us down, not up.”
Another senior MP said anger and mistrust were now “embedded” in many voters’ views of Mr Johnson.
“Once you lose faith in someone, it is very difficult to regain it,” the former minister said. “I think it will be autumn. I guess the moment of maximum danger for him will be a party conference, because there will be a feeling that the decline in opinion polls is permanent and we are running out of time to take a new leader before the next election.
A Tory MP in the Red Wall area said the results might not be “catastrophic” enough to see a wave of no-confidence letters next week, but could persuade some backstage supporters to change their minds.
“Some MPs in the south will think, ‘Damn, we can’t go on like this,'” the back judge said. “It is now clear that some voters will never forget or forgive Partygate. I think Sue Gray’s report is still a time when more MPs are overcoming and deciding with letters. “
David Simmonds, whose headquarters in Ruislip, Northwood and Piner in north-west London borders Mr Johnson’s own constituency, said the prime minister had serious questions to answer.
And he warned that Sir Keir’s police investigation would not remove the pressure on the prime minister because “two mistakes are not right.”
Mr Simmonds declined to say whether he was considering a letter, but told The Independent: “What people will not forgive is if they see us limping in government.
“If we are stuck because of the leader’s actions towards Partygate, then that needs to change.”
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