Boris Johnson’s main allies are preparing to defend him in a challenge to his leadership, as they acknowledged that it is increasingly likely that rebel Conservative MPs have reached the key threshold needed to trigger a no-confidence vote against the British prime minister this week.
For such a vote to take place, Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential Tory MPs’ 1922 committee, must receive 54 letters urging Johnson to leave.
The prime minister’s allies said the threshold may have been reached after claims by a number of rebels on Sunday that they had enough support to provoke a vote.
Paul Scully, the Minister of Business, told Channel 4 on Sunday: “We may have a vote of no confidence [in Johnson’s position] but he will win it. “
A close ally of Johnson’s ministerial dismissed a report in The Sunday Times that the figure was 67. “I’m sure it’s not 67. But whether it’s over 54 is another matter,” he said.
One of Johnson’s leading critics predicts that there is a 55% chance of a vote of confidence this week. “He is on the move,” he said.
Tory MPs accepted a poll from their constituents and local party associations about Johnson’s future during the long anniversary celebrations.
“I think Brady will announce tomorrow and if he doesn’t, the others will send letters. This is past the point of no return, “another influential Conservative MP predicted on Sunday. He noted that some Tories want to physically deliver a letter instead of using email or WhatsApp.
Brady, who declined to comment, is the only person who knows exactly how many no-confidence motion deputies have submitted.
But Grant Shaps, transport secretary and one of Johnson’s main parliamentary organizers, told the BBC he did not believe his party had enough support to vote for Johnson’s leadership in the coming days.
Shaps, who helped Johnson’s campaign for the Tory party’s leadership in 2019 and helped strengthen his volatile position earlier this year, also said he was confident the prime minister could survive any vote. Asked if he would win a vote, Shaps said: “Yes, he will.”
At least 30 Tory MPs have publicly called for Johnson to step down as resentment has grown over the scandal with the party following the publication of a highly critical report by senior government official Sue Gray, in which she questioned his leadership.
But some ministers close to Johnson say the number of rebels is exaggerated. An ally predicts a “whole week of mea culpa” after reports of an upcoming no-confidence vote. Another said, “I’ve heard the wolf cry too many times.”
If Johnson avoids voting in the coming days, the focus will shift to the results of two important by-elections on June 23. The rebels believe the loss of both will make a no-confidence vote inevitable.
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Johnson’s challenge in Wakefield was highlighted by a new poll suggesting that the Labor Party is on track to regain its seat, which became conservative for the first time since 1931 in the last election. On Sunday, JL Partners put Labor ahead of the Tories by 20 points.
In Tiverton and Honiton, a Tory stronghold with a majority of 24,239, bookmakers ranked the Liberal Democrats as favorites with odds of victory.
The prime minister will try to shift the focus of domestic policy on Tuesday to housing, including plans to expand the right of tenants to buy housing associations. Johnson will also continue working on a growth strategy ahead of a joint economic speech with Chancellor Rishi Sunak.
Meanwhile, former Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has been urged by his supporters to announce that he will fight for the Conservative Party’s leadership if Johnson loses his leadership ballot or is ousted.
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