Boris Johnson could face a new no-confidence vote within a year after Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 committee, refused to rule out a change in the rules.
Some Tory rebels hope that after the prime minister faces calls from 41% of his own lawmakers to leave, a second offer to oust him may come sooner than expected.
Under current 1922 Committee rules, a leader who wins a no-confidence vote has immunity from another for 12 months, meaning Johnson is likely to remain Conservative leader until at least June 2023.
However, the 18 commission officials could change the rules and reduce the period of immunity to six months or less.
Some officers want to put pressure on Johnson and would support reducing the time before he is challenged again, but they are waiting for their time and waiting for the next two most dangerous moments for him, according to them.
This month’s by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton, which the Conservatives are holding but expect to lose to Labor and Liberal Democrats respectively, are likely to be used as ammunition by critics of the prime minister to claim he is no longer an electoral is facing the destruction of the next general election.
A new investigation into violators of the Downing Street law by the Privileges Committee will begin soon, with lawmakers expecting it to report in the fall.
The committee’s gathering of evidence may include interviewing Johnson as part of their investigation into whether he misled parliament, repeatedly insisting that Covid’s rules were not violated, generating further embarrassing coverage with recommended potential sanctions if found against him.
While Brady said the rules were unlikely to be changed to allow a new no-confidence vote before Johnson next summer, he left the door open for opportunity.
“This is not something we as the executive have ever discussed in this House,” Brady told Times Radio.
He said that after Theresa May won the no-confidence vote against her by a large margin, the commission was indeed considering changing the rules, but ultimately decided not to.
“I thought a lot about it because of the amount of speculation [there] is in the media, “Brady continued. “Of course, it is technically possible that the laws will be changed in the future. And it is possible that the rules will be changed in the future. But I think it is important to say that the rule that is in force and will probably remain in force is that there is a one-year grace period after the vote of confidence.
Even if the commission decides not to change the rules again, former Conservative leader William Hague has warned that Johnson could be ousted in other ways.
“One way or another, when you have this level of discontent in your own party, it’s not going to end well,” he told House magazine.
“I don’t know how it will end, but it will end in a car accident in the cabinet, or a riot of activists, or a change in the rules to have a new vote for leadership, or electoral defeat. It will end badly. “
Hague added that “when you see something going wrong, you have to do something and take responsibility as a leader to do what you have to do, even if it involves getting out of the way.”
Johnson still retains public support for his top team, with only two resignations – John Lamont as assistant minister and John Penrose as anti-corruption king.
Michael Gove said he continued to enthusiastically support the prime minister.
“If you’ve been in politics for a while, like I was, then there are always mistakes you can look back on,” the level secretary said. “But I think the prime minister is doing a good job.
Gove also stressed that he would not run again against Johnson for leadership and called on his rebellious colleagues to “demonstrate that the government is focused on providing services to the people of the United Kingdom.”
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