Can Boris Johnson lose his seat in the next general election? This is an issue that would be unpleasant for any other prime minister, but defeat in his constituencies in Uxbridge and South Ruislip is not unthinkable.
The local elections in London earlier this month marked a significant change for Labor. A poll by YouGov this weekend found that Johnson would lose his seat if the election took place tomorrow. The electoral calculation, which analyzes data from national opinion polls, also tentatively supports Labor’s victory in the West London constituency.
“He’s on top, which makes me very happy because he’s such an unpopular person right now,” said David Williams, chairman of Hillingdon Labor. “At the local level, he is not a political asset – he did not run in the local elections. So I want to see him go and I want him to stay at the same time – it’s a very strange feeling. “
It will take a serious 15% swing to lose Johnson. But Williams said changes in the constituency would add Northolt to the seat, a city he described as a “strong Labor zone”. Meanwhile, young commuters are moving far from inner London to the outer quarters, and Hillingden is no exception, especially with the new Elizabeth Line station in Johnson’s constituency.
Perhaps the biggest local problem is the future of Heathrow’s third track. Hillingdon’s Tory-controlled council is also struggling with a £ 38m deficit, despite bailouts of £ 25m in March. One solution is to build more housing, which attracts more taxpayers and Section 106 payments from developers designed for new amenities.
But the cost of election development is being felt in places like Yiewsley, a battlefield in the southern constituency. Labor took both seats on the Tory council in May, fueled by local opposition to the council’s plans to replace the library with a six-story block and a new library, part of which is in a parking lot for Yiewsley Park. The local swimming pool was demolished 14 years ago and the land is still empty despite promises of a new leisure center. With threats from campaign groups for judicial reviews and protests, the problem looks likely to drag on into next year and beyond, making it a hot local issue for Johnson.
Debbie King, of the Yiewsley.org campaign, said: “It’s going to have a big impact – it’s just been forced so far. So far, Johnson’s answers have been neutral, but going against the plans would mean confronting city councilors, who are already blaming Downing Street for their financial difficulties.
Boris Johnson plays ticket to caregivers in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituencies he has held since 2015. Photo: Leon Neal / Getty Images
The problem arises on Yiewsley’s main street. Outside of Wenzel’s The Bakers branch, Paula Grimes, a philanthropist, feels betrayed by the council’s approach to the swimming pool and Yewsley Park, although she voted for Johnson last time and will do so again. “There are many things bigger than blocking parties,” she said, referring to Ukraine and rising food prices. “I don’t think people can handle a big change.”
Her partner Daniel McGuinness strongly disagrees. He is outraged by Johnson’s decision to block during the pandemic. “I have absolutely no time for this man,” he said. “He looks like a jester. I fought during the blockade. “
Johnson will be happier with the divisions between Labor and Hillingdon’s left-wing activists. Williams said the party was hampered in the local elections because it had no right to elect candidates shortly before the nomination deadline. “The National Party is holding us back from choosing a [parliamentary] a candidate, “he said. But there is no shortage of strong contenders.” Everyone wants to be the knight who kills the dragon. “
Senior Labor officials say Uxbridge and South Ruislip will have to be among the 125 seats won by Labor if they want to secure a majority in the next election. In fact, according to the Electoral Plan, it would fall to Labor, even if the party did not have 25 seats in the general majority.
However, the prime ministers have a much bigger personal voice than most MPs. Margaret Thatcher kept Finchley comfortable, although it was not a theoretically safe place, according to Electoral Calculus founder Martin Baxter. Johnson’s place “looks competitive,” he said. “What is unlikely to happen is that Johnson loses his seat, but the Conservatives remain in power. The prime minister cannot lose his seat without the Conservatives losing their parliamentary majority.
A senior Tory member familiar with the area said a major upset was “possible” and Johnson could lose, suggesting that the liberal Tories who backed David Cameron and Theresa May were not deeply impressed with the prime minister. However, he said non-traditional Tory voters still like Johnson.
“It is fair to say that anyone can be in trouble at any stage these days,” he said. “Anything is possible. But the local council is conservative and popular. There are good activists there and Johnson got more than 50% of the vote last time. I think the economy will be the thing – and how people feel personally. It’s also possible don’t stay again if he goes. “
But there are other possibilities for Johnson. He could do “Run on the Chicken” and stand in a different place, although this could be seen as a recognition of defeat – a bad thing for a prime minister. If we accept, of course, that until the next election he is still in №10.
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