The next election is supposed to be in three years, but we see a lot of predictions about the political demise of Justin Trudeau. But there is no easy way for his Liberal Party to abandon him.
Mr Trudeau’s forecast for the next three years looks like a game of play, given the surprises of his first seven years in office, including Donald Trump, the pandemic and the war in Europe.
But it is a prime minister whose last two re-election candidacies have led him to oust minority governments without winning the popular vote, and who will be in office for 10 years until the next election.
Any other party, with any other leader, would already have plans or conspiracies to replace him. Still, for the Liberal Party of Canada, the big challenge would be to find a replacement leader who is not seen as a pale imitation – a Trudeau liberal who is not Justin Trudeau.
As a profile, the obvious contender is Christia Freeland, the deputy prime minister and finance minister, who now distributes budgets, processes important political files, replaces the prime minister on key occasions and often stands by him for important announcements.
But if the problem with Mr. Trudeau, who wants to be re-elected in 2025, is that Trudeau was too much and Canadians are tired of the way he did things, it’s hard to imagine that Mr. Mrs. Freeland will be seen as a wind of change.
And despite all the weight that Ms Freeland has in Mr Trudeau’s government, she is leading the NAFTA negotiations with Mr Trump’s administration, helping to build political peace with Ontario’s Prime Minister Doug Ford and being responsible for the fiscal plan. recovery of the pandemic – it is not a political executor like the prime minister. There are few people.
Mr. Trudeau is a master of the insane art of speaking, while Mrs. Freeland gives long lectures. Even now, with his approvals lower, no one doubts Mr Trudeau’s ability to charm the room or deliver a line.
And this is a conundrum for liberals: It is difficult to find a better seller for Trudeau’s liberalism than Justin Trudeau. And it will be difficult to find a liberal leader who does not look like a Trudeau liberal.
There are some contenders with their own political charm. Innovation Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne can work in a room. Foreign Minister Melanie Jolie also has some charisma. But both have been on Mr Trudeau’s team for seven years.
Defense Minister Anita Anand is newer and is seen by some as a potential candidate for leadership, but by 2025 she is likely to be Trudeau’s cabinet minister for six years. Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, did not join Mr Trudeau’s government, but it is unclear whether he can cope with the tense world of electoral politics – which is very different from every other stage.
And at this stage, when potential candidates for leadership are still limited to quiet work to travel to fundraising and regional liberal meetings and make behind-the-scenes plans, many of these potential candidates seem to have similar ideas on how to differentiate themselves from Trudeau – with a stronger focus on economics.
Mrs Freeland, as Minister of Finance, has a platform for this – but she is strongly committed to Mr Trudeau’s overall agenda.
Mr Champagne, the Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry, is positioning himself as a business liberal in the cabinet who will talk about industrial strategy, economic growth and jobs. Some liberals have suggested that Ms. Anand seek such territory if she decides to run, although her current job as defense minister does not make it particularly easy. Mr Carney, if he chooses to run, will face a different challenge: he will enter the race with solid economic ability, but he will have to convince voters that he is in touch with ordinary Canadians.
This is a group of potential candidates who would seek to rebrand the Liberals as a party more focused on the economy after a long term with a left-wing prime minister. It’s like a tradition in the Liberal Party that replaced Pierre Trudeau with John Turner and Jean Chrétien with Paul Martin – with less than stellar election results.
As Justin Trudeau seven years after his term, but three years after the election, the conundrum for the Liberal Party is not whether Mr Trudeau will run again. Whether he can be replaced by someone the voters will think otherwise.
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