The signal for the NBA Finals in 2022 in San Francisco, where the Golden State Warriors host the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the championship series on Thursday.
Golden State has been waiting a while to see which partner will leave the East after the Western Conference finals on May 26. Boston again needed seven games to advance and will have three full days off to travel, rest and prepare before Game 1, earning 3.5 points on the road.
Check out our free NBA election and predictions for the Celtics Warriors on June 2.
Odds for match 1 of the Celtics against the Warriors
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each regulated sports betting market.
Bookmakers found Golden State the favorite for the hosts with 3.5 points for Game 1, with this spread briefly jumping to -4 before returning to -3.5 (-112) in some stores. The total reached 211.5 points, falling to 210.5 before returning to the original number.
Use the live odds widget above to keep track of all future line moves so far, and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to make sure you’re getting the best number.
Predictions for game 1 of the Celtics against the Warriors
Estimates made on 31.5.2022 at 14:00 ET. Click on each forecast to proceed to the full analysis.
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Match info 1 Celtics vs Warriors
• Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA • Date: Thursday, June 2, 2022 • Report: 9:00 PM ET • Television: ABC
Odds for the NBA Celtics final against the Warriors
Celtics: + 130War: -150
Preview Celtics vs. Warriors Betting Game 1
Key injuries
Celtics: No injuries to report. Warriors: Gary Peyton II PG (Probably), Otto Porter Jr. F (Questionable), Andre Iguodala SF (Questionable), James Wiseman C (Exit). Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Trend to bet to know
The Warriors are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 home games against a team with a winning record on the road. Discover more NBA betting trends for the Celtics against the Warriors.
Celtics vs. Warriors Game 1 selection and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based on our analysis of the line and the total amount in this game. Our best bet is our favorite choice in all markets.
Distribution analysis
The Celtics showed great heart and the ability to win on the road during the playoffs, but I’m a little confused when it comes to the distribution for match 1. Before we even dive into the intricacies between these two clubs, there are obvious edges in this opener for Warriors right on the surface.
Golden State has the remaining advantage after finishing the finals in the West in five games and is generally a stronger team in terms of its main rotation. Oaks have the advantage of entering the series with many veterans who will not be blinded by the bright lights of the finals. And for at least the first two games, the Warriors have a home advantage, with the Celtics having to cross the country and face an audience at Chase Center that rivals the old Oracle Arena in terms of variability this postseason.
All these corners and edges together come out only up to 3.5 points?
If the Celtics will turn the home field in the finals, match 1 is the place. After a series of grueling series of seven games that have affected C’s honors, Thursday is perhaps the healthiest we’ve seen this Boston team since before fighting the Bucks.
So, although I think the spread of Game 1 should be more in the Warriors range -5.5, I saw the players give the Celtics a chance to fight, given how well they played away from home (7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS) and the fact that players like Marcus Smart and Robert Williams have had time to recover from some serious injuries.
Going beyond these superficial factors, however, Golden State has more ways to win, or at least can make easier adjustments if its bread and butter methods don’t work.
Boston needs young stars Jason Tatum and Jaylan Brown to meet the challenge every night against a defense that is almost as stingy as their own. Let’s not forget that the focus of Steve Kerr’s campaign in 2021-2022 is defense, with Dubs ranking just behind the Celtics in defense rankings during the regular season.
Kerr may have three vital defensive figures back for the finals, with Gary Peyton Jr., Otto Porter and Andre Iguodala on their way back, placing them alongside strong starters Draymond Green, Kevin Looney and Andrew Wiggins. This is a lot of fresh defenders to throw at the Celtics stars.
The Warriors have an advantage over Boston, something Miami had in the Eastern Finals before Tyler Hero was injured and Kyle Lowry’s illness made him useless. Golden State still relies on Stephen Curry and Clay Thompson to lead, but they have capable support players like Wiggins and Jordan Poole who can take over if the vets have a bad night.
The last two opponents of Boston depended on one main source of buckets and did not have a permanent second goal scorer to share the load. Janice Adetokunmpo missed the injured Chris Middleton, and Jimmy Butler had no choice but to score 40 a night to keep the Heat alive. However, Warriors have options – not only in who scores, but also how they score.
Bucks and Heath recorded an assist of only 51.4% and 54.5% against Boston, with Adetokunmpo and Butler receiving the ball and everyone else watching. Golden State makes you work well in defense with a lot of ball movements and actions away from basketball, leaning on screens and cuts to increase the assist ratio of 66.9% in the playoffs. Points can come from anywhere.
This is the match in the finals that the league wanted, the fans wanted the bettors as well. We hope that it meets the hype and does not follow the path of the blow games we saw this postseason. Boston has the best chance of stealing a win on the road in Game 1, but I have a feeling we’re getting a discount for the Dubs at -3.5.
Prediction: Warriors -3.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
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Over / Under analysis
Perhaps the biggest factor in this series comes down to which team can get rid of their chronic case of “oil fingers” first.
The Celtics and Warriors were plagued by failure problems during the playoffs, with Boston scoring 15.3 times per game in the East finals, leading to 17.1 points against unsuccessful failures. Golden State was not so bad against the Mavericks in the West Finals, but lifted the ball 18.2 times in a race against Memphis in the semifinals of the conference, which cost him 20.3 points per shot.
These turnovers can become easy points on the other side, but can also damage the team’s overall offensive flow. If both sides exchange problems with turnovers in Game 1, they will cancel each other out in the scoreboard, but will give preference to lower bettors in terms of breaking the rhythm of scoring points for two teams that can heat up.
Golden State will not have as easy time scoring points against Boston as against Dallas, who defended the perimeter, but largely gave the Warriors fresh air inside without a real rim protector. Williams served as an in-house goalkeeper for the C’s, using his length and athleticism to change shots and provide rebounds in defense. Golden State, which had an effective flight percentage of 58.9% in the last series, also owned the offensive boards and added 14.4 points for a second chance trip to Dallas.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see that Golden State is getting old to start Game 1. Although the Warriors have the advantage of resting, this can sometimes leave a team rusty or passive – especially when facing an enemy fresh from the intensity of straight or – game of dying.
As we have seen from Golden State so far, this violation takes some time to start (54.4 1H points vs. 60.1 2H points). As for the Celtics, the trepidation of the NBA Finals and the feeling that this Dubs defense can keep the points low for the first 12-24 minutes. This sets the table for Under supporters, who may feel a little uncomfortable in the second half as things pile up.
Prediction: Under 211.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
The best bet
Although things seem to be going well against Boston in terms of rest, experience and space, this Celtics team is quite capable of stealing a win in Game 1 on the road. I just don’t think it will.
Golden State is a perfect 9-0 SU at Chase Center this postseason and holds an overall record of 40-10 a year ahead of Bay Area loyalists. Of course, one of those losses at home came from the Celtics in March, but Curry was injured in the second quarter and Wiggins was also out.
Maybe it’s just my memory or individual betting patterns, but I often find myself betting on Warriors money instead of betting points when my spread throws a curve. And, as we mentioned, this line from Game 1 looks about two points lower than expected.
As of now, the Dubs aren’t a great choice of points as a short-term favorite, going only 7-5-1 ATS when giving -3.5 or less this year. However, they are 9-4 SU in these tough races. We saw this bubble up as a 2.5-point chalk in Game 1 against Memphis: a 117-116 victory in which I gave up a point spread and stayed on the Golden State line.
We will do the same on Thursday, shopping for the lowest direct odds for the hosts and hoping for an exciting start to the NBA Finals.
Choice: Warriors money line (-160 at PointsBet)
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