It was once described as the most wide-open race in a generation. Now, as the ballot papers land on Conservative members’ doorsteps, the race is considered all but over.
The most telling sign of this is when aspiring ministers who want to keep their jobs come out with their 11th-hour endorsements of Liz Truss after waiting to make sure they’re picking the winning horse.
The race also began to follow a more predictable pattern. Like Boris Johnson, Truss launched his campaign late and limited early media appearances and thus opportunities for gaffes. Like Johnson, her thick-skinned campaign was a solid booster.
Rishi Sunak started as pragmatism and seriousness – like Jeremy Hunt – but since then he has been forced to throw out more and more red meat to catch up with his rival, similar to how Hunt ended his final weeks of the campaign.
But Sunak’s campaign isn’t giving up, and lawmakers are quietly saying the race may be closer than expected. It is true that the account of Truss’s certain victory requires a closer examination. Her lead in YouGov polls among party members is around 24 points – but the latest poll was on 21 July.
It found that 31% of members intend to vote for Rishi Sunak, while 49% intend to vote for Liz Truss. Another 15% currently do not know.
But Conservative members are hard to poll – although YouGov has an excellent record. The 2019 Johnson-Hunt pre-result poll correctly predicted the outcome, but gave Johnson a much larger margin of victory than he received.
Deputies from the camps of Truss and Sunak are conducting their own polls among the members of the association. Most think Truss is on course to win, but will point out that the vote is very soft. Many MPs described their ad hoc local voting of members as flawless with a significant number of undecideds.
One said they didn’t think the ballots would be returned as quickly as in previous years, despite the common belief that members return their ballots within days, which would give Sunak just a few days to turn his fortunes around.
Another MP said their older members were generally campaigning for Sunak and younger members for Truss, suggesting older members were less likely to participate in online voting. The other indication that the race may be tighter than expected is a poll of Conservative candidates that put just a point between the pair.
One former cabinet minister said they took an informal poll of their members, finding an almost even split, with a third undecided. Even then, the electorate is unpredictable – members may not say they support a rival candidate if they know their MP is supporting another.
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There is one thing overwhelmingly in Truss’ favor, regardless of the polls. She has the momentum. Often, polls that show a candidate as the favorite have their own way of becoming self-fulfilling prophecies.
Trot now has a flood of endorsements from cabinet ministers like Nadhim Zahawi and Brandon Lewis, who think they can see where the wind is blowing. Penny Mordaunt, who finished third in the leadership race, announced her support for the foreign secretary ahead of Monday’s battles in Exeter.
Sunak was the candidate who once had that momentum – bringing on board Grant Shapps, Dominic Raab and Jeremy Hunt as big-name backers who thought they were picking the winning horse. This may be a sign to everyone in this race that the wind can still change very quickly.
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