Progressive Conservatives have “withdrawn” from the rest of the group as elections in Ontario must begin, a new Ipsos study has found.
The poll, conducted exclusively for Global News, suggests that if the provincial election were held tomorrow, the Progressive Conservative Party (PC), led by leader Doug Ford, would garner 39 percent of the vote.
This is an increase of four points from last month, but is two points less than their share of votes in 2018.
Read more: Healthcare, pocketbook issues among Ontario’s top voters: Ipsos poll
Meanwhile, the poll shows that the Ontario Liberals and the New Ontario Democrats (NDP) will split the progressive vote.
The poll found that Ontario Liberals – led by Stephen Del Duca – would receive 26 per cent of the vote, while the NDP, led by leader Andrea Horvat, would garner 25 per cent of the vote.
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The poll found that five percent of voters said they would vote for their local Green Party candidate, while six percent said they would vote for another party.
Meanwhile, another five per cent of those polled said they would not vote, and 13 per cent said they had not yet decided.
Votes by region
The survey found that in 905 parties (47 percent) they have a 21-point lead over the Liberals (26 percent). The NDP garnered 20 per cent of the vote, while three per cent of voters said they would vote for the Green Party.
However, in 416 – or exactly in Toronto – the poll found that the Liberals lead by 36 percent, while the RS holds 32 percent of the vote. Twenty-six percent of those polled said they would vote for the NDP, while two percent said they would vote for the Green Party. Five percent of voters said they would vote for another party.
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Other areas in the province are distributed as follows:
Southwest Ontario
- Computer: 38 percent
- NDP: 25 percent
- Liberals: 21 percent
- Green Party: six percent
- Others: 10 percent
Central Ontario
- Computer: 39 percent
- NDP: 23 percent
- Liberals: 18 percent
- Greens: 13 percent
- Others: 7 percent
Eastern Ontario
- PC: 37 percent
- NDP: 30 percent
- Liberals: 25 percent
- Green Party: three percent
- Others: four percent
Northern Ontario
- NDP: 37 percent
- Computer: 34 percent
- Liberals: 15 percent
- Greens: eight percent
- Others: five percent
Read more: Computers in Ontario have a strong lead less than 3 months from election day: Ipsos poll
Voices by gender
The survey also found “significant differences” in voter intentions based on gender and age.
According to the data, 33 percent of women said they would vote for RS, and 30 percent said they would vote for the NDP. Twenty-eight percent said they would vote for the Liberals, while only four percent said they would vote for the Green Party. Seven percent said they would vote for another party.
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By comparison, the poll found that men are more stable in the PC camp, with 46 percent saying they would vote for the party. Twenty-four percent of men said they would vote for the Liberals, while 20 percent said they would vote for the NDP. Five percent said they would vote for the Green Party, while the same group said they would vote for another party.
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Votes by age
The data also showed how voters’ intentions varied between age groups. This is how the voting will be divided by age if the provincial elections take place tomorrow.
Voters aged 55+
- Computer: 46 percent
- NDP: 19 percent
- Liberals: 26 percent
- Green Party: two percent
- Others: six percent
Voters aged 35 to 54
- Computer: 39 percent
- NDP: 26 percent
- Liberals: 23 percent
- Green Party: five percent
- Others: seven percent
Voters aged 18 to 34
- Computer: 28 percent
- NDP: 34 percent
- Liberals: 28 percent
- Green Party: seven percent
- Others: three percent
“The effect of the position”
The poll also found support for Ford’s government strong. The data show that 51% of respondents in the survey approve of the work of the Progressive Conservative government under Prime Minister Ford. Thirty-eight percent say they “somewhat” approve, while 12 percent say they “strongly” approve the government’s work.
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Moreover, 40% of respondents said the Ford government had done a good job and deserved to be re-elected.
However, 57 per cent say they think it is time for another party to take over, while 3 per cent say they do not know or do not respond.
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Sean Simpson, vice president of Ipsos Public Affairs, said it had “a strong effect on governments across Canada”.
“We saw this when Justin Trudeau was re-elected federally – albeit with a different minority government – because those over the age of 55 largely supported the pandemic measures and restrictions the federal government had imposed,” he told Global News.
Simpson said something “very similar” seems to be happening in Ontario, adding that there is “very strong support from older residents for the current government.”
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“At the beginning of the campaign, we like to determine and understand whether this is an ‘election for change’ or not, which means that only common momentum will help the opposition parties,” he said.
“It seems that this election in Ontario is not an ‘election for change’ and therefore trends and tides will generally favor Prime Minister Doug Ford’s current government.
Simpson said the first part of the election campaign “is likely to be primary for progressive votes”.
He said that in order to have “any chance of defeating Mr Ford and the Progressive Conservatives”, the Liberals or the NDP would have to “prove themselves to be the main rival”.
“Currently, the progressive vote is evenly divided between the two parties, so voters need to figure out who has the best chance of defeating the prime minister on June 2nd and therefore deserves their support,” he said.
So far, Simpson has said that this is the “best case scenario” for computers.
“A double-digit lead and very mixed support between the NDP and the Liberals, leading to a lot of intense competition for the Tories,” he said.
Voter uncertainty
The survey also found that only 44% of voters say they are absolutely sure when it comes to deciding how to vote on election day, which means that other voters who have expressed support for a political party are not “locked up”. “.
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The study found that 38 percent of parents, 40 percent of women, 38 percent of those aged 35 to 54 and 40 percent of those aged 18 to 35 are the least sure of their choice.
Only 41% of Liberal voters and 43% of NDP voters said they were absolutely sure of their choice, while 49% of PC voters said they were sure how to vote.
Simpson said “locked voters” were among the “big advantages” that progressive conservatives have at the moment, adding that it would likely be a “rather volatile election.”
“If not for the current support of the progressive conservatives, definitely for the numbers of the NDP and the Liberals, as these progressive voters are trying to figure out who is best to defeat the current government,” he said.
METHODOLOGY: This Ipsos survey was conducted between April 29 and May 1, 2022 on behalf of Global News. For this study, a sample of n = 1501 Ontarians aged 18+ was interviewed online (1001) and by telephone (500). Quotas and weighting were used to balance the demographics to ensure that the composition of the sample reflected that of the population according to the census information. The accuracy of Ipsos online surveys is measured using a confidence interval. In this case, the survey is accurate to within ± 2.9 percentage points, 19 times 20 of what the results would have been if all Ontario residents had been surveyed. All sample surveys and surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to, coverage error and measurement error.
© 2022 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
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