The cost of living crisis will add further strain to an already-threatened NHS this autumn, experts have warned, amid fears the health crisis could deepen if urgent action is not taken.
Health professionals say the NHS is at risk of a surge in hospital admissions, mass cancellations of operations and increasing difficulties in discharging patients if these pressures, potentially combined with a new wave of Covid and a bad flu season, are not contained .
The warnings come after Health Secretary Steve Barclay said on Sunday there needed to be a “real sprint” in Whitehall to prepare for September, telling the Telegraph that hospitals faced “very serious challenges coming down the track during autumn”. .
Julian Tang, a clinical virologist and honorary associate professor of respiratory sciences at the University of Leicester, said the cost of living crisis could affect the NHS if people could not heat their homes or have proper food.
“Unless there is a lot of financial support from the government, I think this winter is going to be very difficult for a lot of people,” he said, noting that the cold can worsen conditions from heart disease to chronic lung disease and diabetes, while Covid or flu infections can also make such diseases worse.
“All of this will lead to higher admissions to the NHS for exacerbations of these chronic conditions due to the cold, not being able to heat their homes and not being able to eat enough – with possible malnutrition, especially in children, as people have to buy cheaper and less healthy foods due to rising food bills – and the added burden of returning seasonal respiratory viral infections,” he said.
Tang added that it may also become more difficult to discharge patients, a problem that is already fueling problems including slow response times for ambulances and a shortage of social care and nursing staff.
“As I saw in my junior doctor days, during the winter months some patients will not want to go home – to a cold, damp house, alone, with inadequate heating and food – when they can get a warm hospital bed with three meals a day day and helpful, friendly staff and other patients to talk to.’
Tang called for more funding for the NHS and financial support for households to deal with these pressures.
However, on Monday No 10 ruled out any further support to tackle the cost of living crisis, saying the matter should be addressed by a future prime minister.
While the interim chief executive of NHS Providers, Saffron Cordery, welcomed Barclay’s emphasis on urgency, she underlined the scale of the problems, calling for a long-term, sustainable workforce plan as soon as possible and long-term investment in and reform of social care.
“It is important that the Secretary of State called it for what it is. He is right that we need to act now, especially on social care,” she said. “There are widespread pressures on the NHS and we know that demand for emergency and urgent care continues to exceed capacity, putting patient care and safety at risk.”
“There has been no downturn in recent months and NHS trusts are braced for a challenging time ahead, with the potential for new waves of Covid and a bad flu season.”
Dr. Naru Narayanan, the president of the HCSA, the hospital doctors’ union, agreed. “We are extremely concerned about the impact of the twin impacts of flu and Covid this winter on the NHS, which is creaking under the strain of staffing problems,” he said.
“There is a real risk that we will see massive canceled operations and an even bigger crisis if we don’t act preemptively.”
Narayanan called for the re-introduction of enhanced cleaning regimes in hospitals, greater use of face masks and a potential expansion of the autumn Covid booster vaccination programme.
Currently, everyone over the age of 50 will be offered another shot against Covid this autumn, along with healthcare staff and other specific groups such as care home residents.
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Although Barclay revealed plans to hire more staff from abroad to tackle staffing issues, particularly in social care, experts stressed it was crucial to retain existing health staff – and address concerns over the recent pay offer .
Patricia Marquis, director for England at the Royal College of Nursing, said: “Mr Barclay is right to say that the crisis in social care in England needs fixing. Official figures show there is a huge problem with patients not being able to go home from hospital because there is no adequate welfare package and a serious shortage of nursing staff.
She added: “The failure of ministers to tackle the workforce crisis is putting patients at risk and leaving nurses with no choice but to consider industrial action. We will be voting our members soon.”
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